Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Blacksburg, VA

946 
WWUS51 KRNK 102156
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
556 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

VAC035-102206-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-110510T2230Z/
CARROLL VA-
556 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8059 3656 8063 3656 8061 3659 8062
      3659 8037 3626 8010 3625 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 338DEG 29KT 3648 8043

$$

NCC169-171-VAC141-102230-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-110510T2230Z/
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-PATRICK VA-
556 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK...EASTERN SURRY AND WESTERN STOKES
COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WOODVILLE...OR NEAR FRANCISCO...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODVILLE...
  PINNACLE...
  KING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8059 3656 8063 3656 8061 3659 8062
      3659 8037 3626 8010 3625 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 338DEG 29KT 3648 8043

$$

RCS

556 
WWUS51 KRNK 102205
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

VAC141-102215-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-110510T2230Z/
PATRICK VA-
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8059 3650 8060 3654 8044 3626 8010
      3625 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 344DEG 23KT 3646 8051

$$

NCC169-171-102230-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-110510T2230Z/
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-
605 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN SURRY AND WESTERN STOKES COUNTIES...

AT 601 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODVILLE...OR 6 MILES EAST OF MOUNT
AIRY...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODVILLE...
  ARARAT...
  PILOT MOUNTAIN...
  PINNACLE...
  KING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 8059 3650 8060 3654 8044 3626 8010
      3625 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 344DEG 23KT 3646 8051

$$

RCS

255 
WWUS51 KRNK 102223
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
623 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

NCC169-171-102234-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-110510T2230Z/
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-
623 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SURRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
STOKES COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 630 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3629 8059 3650 8060 3654 8044 3626 8010
      3625 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 344DEG 23KT 3634 8047

$$

RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM KENTUCKY...THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN
VIRGINIA AND INTO NORTH CAROLINA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY ACROSS OUR REGION. A
STRONG DISTURBANCE PUSHING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
FROM KENTUCKY...THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA...INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BRUNT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL OVER KENTUCKY...AND WILL NOT ARRIVE
INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHICH BRINGS WITH
IT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WE ARE ALSO CONSIDERING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE
OF DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGING ON
THROUGH SUNRISE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW...WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST...ALBEIT NOT AS INTENSE OR AS WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS JUST TO THE
EAST OF A PESKY WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SHWS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CWA. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THAN ELEVATED
CONVECTION GENERALLY ON THURSDAY. DESPITE H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TEENS...MAX T WILL BE LIMITED BY DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. EXPECTING
RATHER SIMILAR TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIGGEST CHG TO THE LONG RANGE SUITE WAS A SOUTHERN SHIFT TO THE
TRACY OF THE CLOSED GYRE DRIFTING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE SYSTEM ALL THE WAY TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY...SOMETHING WHICH WAS NOT SHOWN IN THE 0Z GFS
RUN. NOW THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...BUT LESS
EXTREME THAN THE ECMWF. WHATEVER TRACK VERIFIES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
AFFECT ON WEATHER...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD PROBABLY MEAN COOLER
TEMPS INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALREADY IS ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
LIKELY...AGAIN THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS AT THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS ENTERED EXTREME
WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR TO THE WEST OF BLF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE JUST STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...A TREND THAT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK THIS EVENING
AROUND 11/01Z...WITH LWB...BLF AND BCB LIKELY TO HAVE TSTMS ON
STATION. THE THREAT DECREASES FURTHER TO THE EAST...HOWEVER STILL
FEEL THAT ROA...LYH AND DAN HAVE A STRONG ENOUGH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING THAT HAVE INTRODUCED
WORDING IN THEIR TAFS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO
TEMPORARILY FALL BELOW ONE HALF MILE. IN ADDITION...STORMS
AFFECTING BLF...LWB...BCB...AND ROA HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
BEING SEVERE DURING THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER ACROSS
THE WEST...AFFECTING BLF...LWB...AND BCB MORE SO THAN ROA...LYH
AND DAN...BUT EXPECT ALL AIRPORTS TO BE AFFECTED TO SOME DEGREE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX RADAR HAS BEEN RESTORED FOR THE TIME BEING. TECHNICIANS ARE
WORKING TO ENSURE ITS STABILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-032-WVZ042>044-112045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT LATE THIS EVENING WHERE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO ACTIVATE THE SKYWARN
NETWORK THIS EVENING AT 7 PM.

NCZ005-006-VAZ018>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ045-112045-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-GREENBRIER-
438 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
514 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             3 SSE CLAYPOOL HILL     37.02N 81.73W
05/10/2011  E0.50 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   OTHER FEDERAL

0450 PM     HAIL             DUGSPUR                 36.82N 80.62W
05/10/2011  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL IN THE COMMUNITY OF DUGSPUR
            COVERING THE GROUND UP TO TWO INCHES DEEP.

&&

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
523 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             2 SE DUGSPUR            36.79N 80.59W
05/10/2011  E2.00 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

            1.5 TO 2 INCH HAIL IS FALLING ON NESTER SCHOOL ROAD IN
            THE COMMUNITY OF DUGSPUR.

&&

16