River Flood Warning 18, NWS Blacksburg, VA

082 
WGUS81 KRNK 092012
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA...
 
  JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN AFFECTING BOTETOURT COUNTY 
  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE AFFECTING CASWELL...CITY OF DANVILLE AND 
  PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA..
  JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK AFFECTING AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL
  AND CITY OF LYNCHBURG COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK AFFECTING APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND 
  NELSON COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE AFFECTING ALBEMARLE AND BUCKINGHAM 
  COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF AFFECTING BUCKINGHAM AND FLUVANNA 
  COUNTIES 
 
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE JAMES...DAN AND ROANOKE RIVER BASINS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO OVER 3 INCHES IS FORECAST...
WHICH  IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THESE RIVERS.
AT THIS TIME MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. SO FAR FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH 200 PM TODAY RAINFALL HAS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.5O INCHES 
ACROSS THE UPPER PART OF THESE RIVER BASINS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE EAST

HOWEVER THE FORECAST FOR FLOODING IS STILL BASED MAINLY ON FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND FINAL CRESTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER BASED 
ON WHETHER THE RAINFALL OCCURS AS FORECAST IN THESE SPECIFIC RIVER BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 800 PM. 

&&

VAC009-019-031-680-100411-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0013.110310T2300Z-110312T0331Z/
/HRKV2.1.ER.110310T2300Z.110311T0600Z.110311T1531Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK.
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 02PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 23.5 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.8 FEET ON JAN 26 
  2010.

$$

VAC011-029-125-100410-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0014.110311T0200Z-110312T0810Z/
/BECV2.1.ER.110311T0200Z.110311T1200Z.110311T2010Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 02PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET... BOTH BANKS BEGIN TO OVERFLOW...ONLY PASTURE AND 
CROPLAND AFFECTED..  
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.9 FEET ON JAN 26 
  2010.

$$

VAC003-029-100410-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0015.110311T0200Z-110312T1630Z/
/SVEV2.1.ER.110311T0200Z.110311T1200Z.110312T0430Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 02PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.1 FEET ON JAN 26 
  2010.

$$

VAC029-065-100410-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0016.110310T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BREV2.2.ER.110310T2000Z.110311T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF.
* FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL SATURDAY.
* AT 12AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 27.5 FEET BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
  
$$

VAC037-083-100410-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.110311T0325Z-110314T0316Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.110311T0325Z.110312T0600Z.110313T1516Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
* AT 01PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 25 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.3 FEET ON MAR 17 
  2007.

$$

VAC023-100410-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0012.110310T1700Z-110312T0436Z/
/BNNV2.1.ER.110310T1700Z.110311T0600Z.110311T1636Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN.
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 02PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.5 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.2 FEET ON JAN 26 
  2010.

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-100410-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0018.110310T2309Z-110312T1000Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.110310T2309Z.110311T0600Z.110311T2200Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE.
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 01PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 20.2 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.0 FEET ON OCT 1 2010.

$$

VAC083-100410-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.110311T0730Z-110313T0815Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.110311T0730Z.110312T0000Z.110312T2015Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT 01PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 22.6 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET... LOW SPOTS ALONG ROUTES 658 AND 671 BEGIN TO FLOOD. 
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.8 FEET ON OCT 1 2004.

$$

VAC083-100410-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.110311T0408Z-110314T0312Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.110311T0408Z.110312T1200Z.110313T1512Z.NO/
311 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* CURRENT STAGE IS ESTIMATED AT 11.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.9 FEET ON FEB 8 2010.

$$

732 
WGUS81 KRNK 100340
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN AFFECTING BOTETOURT COUNTY 
  JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK AFFECTING AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL 
  AND CITY OF LYNCHBURG COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK AFFECTING APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND 
  NELSON COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE AFFECTING ALBEMARLE AND BUCKINGHAM 
  COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF AFFECTING BUCKINGHAM AND FLUVANNA 
  COUNTIES 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA...

  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE AFFECTING CASWELL...CITY OF DANVILLE AND 
  PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
 

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE JAMES...DAN AND ROANOKE RIVER BASINS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS LIKELY DURING
THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO OVER 2.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON THESE RIVERS WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 

HOWEVER THE FORECAST FOR FLOODING IS STILL BASED MAINLY ON FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND FINAL CRESTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER BASED 
ON WHETHER THE RAINFALL OCCURS AS FORECAST IN THESE SPECIFIC RIVER BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 AM THURSDAY. 

&&

VAC009-019-031-680-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0013.110311T1200Z-110312T0017Z/
/HRKV2.1.ER.110311T1200Z.110311T1200Z.110311T1217Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...REACHING 22.1 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.7 FEET ON JUN 28 
  2006.

$$

VAC011-029-125-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0014.110311T1800Z-110312T0600Z/
/BECV2.1.ER.110311T1800Z.110311T1800Z.110311T1800Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK.
* FROM FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...
  REACHING NEAR 16.0 FEET. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.9 FEET ON JAN 26 
  2010.

$$

VAC003-029-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0015.110312T0000Z-110312T1200Z/
/SVEV2.1.ER.110312T0000Z.110312T0000Z.110312T0000Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE.
* FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND THE 20.O FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.3 FEET ON JUN 27 
  2006.

$$

VAC029-065-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0016.110310T0914Z-000000T0000Z/
/BREV2.2.ER.110310T0914Z.110312T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF.
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW UNTIL SATURDAY.
* AT 0930PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO BETWEEN 23.0 AND 25.0 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 


$$

VAC037-083-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.110311T0512Z-110314T0527Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.110311T0512Z.110312T1200Z.110313T1727Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 25.3 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.3 FEET ON MAR 17 
  2007.

$$

VAC023-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0012.110311T0740Z-110312T0409Z/
/BNNV2.1.ER.110311T0740Z.110311T1100Z.110311T1609Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN.
* FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.9 FEET ON APR 16 
  2007.

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-101140-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0018.110311T0208Z-110312T0522Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.110311T0208Z.110311T0600Z.110311T1722Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.8 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.2 FEET ON MAY 9 2008.

$$

VAC083-101139-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.110311T0910Z-110313T0234Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.110311T0910Z.110312T0000Z.110312T1434Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 21.9 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.4 FEET ON OCT 2 2010.

$$

VAC083-101139-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.110311T0408Z-110313T2245Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.110311T0408Z.110312T0600Z.110313T1045Z.NO/
1040 PM EST WED MAR 9 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 07PM WEDNESDAY THE ESTIMATED STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 24.2 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.9 FEET ON FEB 8 2010.

$$

462 
WGUS81 KRNK 101111
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA...
 
  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE AFFECTING CASWELL AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES 
  AND CITY OF DANVILLE 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA..
  JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN AFFECTING BOTETOURT COUNTY 
  JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK AFFECTING AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL
  COUNTIES AND CITY OF LYNCHBURG 
  JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK AFFECTING APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND 
  NELSON COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE AFFECTING ALBEMARLE AND BUCKINGHAM 
  COUNTIES 
  JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF AFFECTING BUCKINGHAM AND FLUVANNA 
  COUNTIES 
 

ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE JAMES...DAN AND ROANOKE RIVER BASINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ONE TO ONE AND HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON THESE RIVERS WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 

THE FORECAST FOR FLOODING IS STILL BASED MAINLY ON FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND FINAL CRESTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER BASED 
ON THE AMOUNT  OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS IN THESE SPECIFIC RIVER BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON TODAY. 

&&

VAC009-019-031-680-101911-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0013.110311T1200Z-110312T0017Z/
/HRKV2.1.ER.110311T1200Z.110311T1200Z.110311T1217Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK.
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT 4AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TO NEAR 22.1 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.7 FEET ON JUN 28 2006.

$$

VAC011-029-125-101910-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0014.110311T1800Z-110312T0600Z/
/BECV2.1.ER.110311T1800Z.110311T1800Z.110311T1800Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK.
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* AT 5AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW 
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.9 FEET ON JAN 26 2010.

$$

VAC003-029-101910-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0015.110312T0000Z-110312T1200Z/
/SVEV2.1.ER.110312T0000Z.110312T0000Z.110312T0000Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE.
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING
* AT 5AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TO NEAR 20.0 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.3 FEET ON JUN 27 
  2006.

$$

VAC029-065-101910-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BREV2.2.ER.110311T0430Z.110312T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF.
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TO NEAR 23.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
  ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

$$

VAC023-101910-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0012.110311T0740Z-110312T0409Z/
/BNNV2.1.ER.110311T0740Z.110311T1100Z.110311T1609Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN.
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT 4AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MIDNIGHT TOMORROW TO NEAR 18.0
  FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.9 FEET ON APR 16 2007.

$$

VAC037-083-101910-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.110311T1800Z-110313T1200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.110311T1800Z.110312T0600Z.110313T0000Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
* AT 4AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.5 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.5 FEET ON MAY 9 2009.

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-101910-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0018.110311T1136Z-110312T0620Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.110311T1136Z.110311T1200Z.110311T1820Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE.
* FROM TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* AT 4AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TO NEAR 17.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.0 FEET ON OCT 28 2010.

$$

VAC083-101910-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.110312T0524Z-110313T0300Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.110312T0524Z.110312T0900Z.110312T1500Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
* AT 04AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.2 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET ON OCT 29 2010.

$$

VAC083-101910-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.110312T0112Z-110313T1500Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.110312T0112Z.110312T1200Z.110313T0300Z.NO/
611 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* FROM TOMORROW EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
  NEAR 19.5 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.5 FEET ON JAN 6 1993.

$$

050 
WGUS81 KRNK 101504
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS
IN VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA...
 
  JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN AFFECTING BOTETOURT COUNTY
  JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK AFFECTING AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL
  COUNTIES AND CITY OF LYNCHBURG 
  JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK AFFECTING APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND 
  NELSON COUNTIES
  JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE AFFECTING ALBEMARLE AND BUCKINGHAM 
  COUNTIES
  DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE AFFECTING CASWELL AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES 
  AND CITY OF DANVILLE
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA..
  JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF AFFECTING BUCKINGHAM AND FLUVANNA 
  COUNTIES 
 
 ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE JAMES...DAN AND ROANOKE RIVER BASINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THESE RIVERS...BUT NOT TO FLOOD STAGE ON THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES AND DAN RIVERS. 

FINAL CRESTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS IN THESE SPECIFIC RIVER BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM.  

&&

VAC009-019-031-680-101534-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-110312T0017Z/
/HRKV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT HOLCOMB ROCK.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 
* AT 8AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO CREST AT 20.0 FEET ON FRIDAY MORNING.  

$$

VAC011-029-125-101534-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110312T0600Z/
/BECV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BENT CREEK.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO CREST AT 15.2 FEET EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

VAC003-029-101534-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110312T1200Z/
/SVEV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT SCOTTSVILLE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. 
* AT 9AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO CREST AT 18.0 FEET FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

VAC029-065-102304-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BREV2.1.ER.110311T0838Z.110312T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER NEAR BREMO BLUFF.
* FROM EARLY TOMORROW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 12AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
  POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

$$

VAC037-083-102304-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.110312T0224Z-110313T1047Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.110312T0224Z.110312T1200Z.110312T2247Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* FROM TOMORROW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
* AT 8AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.5 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.5 FEET ON MAY 9 2009.

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-101534-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110312T0620Z/
/DVLV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 8AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 13.4 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. 

$$

VAC083-101534-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110313T0300Z/
/PCEV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. 
* AT 8AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO CREST AT 17.0 FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

$$

VAC083-102304-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.110311T1717Z-110313T1855Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.110311T1717Z.110312T1200Z.110313T0655Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.4 FEET ON APR 15 
  2004.

$$

VAC023-101534-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110312T0409Z/
/BNNV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1004 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE JAMES RIVER AT BUCHANAN.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 
* AT 8AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1105 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE
LOW AND APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN. AN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM...TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF BATH
COUNTY. REPORTS OF SOME SNOW/SLEET MIX ON THE ROADS. TEMPS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 300 PM...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THEN. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BATH
COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM. OTHER CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPS EVEN SOME MORE.

AS OF 900 AM...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE CWA FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE POPS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO CATEGORICAL FOR REST OF THE DAY...AND SPED
UP THE INCREASE IN POPS IN THE PIEDMONT REST OF THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OBSERVING SITES IN BATH AND
GREENBRIER COUNTIES...ALSO HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN NC
MTNS...ARE REPORTING UNKNOWN PRECIP. CALLS TO THOSE AREAS INDICATE
SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. I HAVE ADDED THAT INTO THE
WEATHER GRIDS. THINK THAT THE TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC MTNS AND FAR SW VA...AND THEN
ALSO IN MUCH OF BATH COUNTY VA...WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS
MORE...SO HAVE ADDED IN FREEZING RAIN REST OF THE MORNING AS WELL.
ANY ICING SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ELEVATED- NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS. OTHER BIG CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS
SINCE THE PRECIP IS HERE AND A STRONG WEDGE IS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL INVADE THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
BECOMING STEADIER AND HEAVIER WITH TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET...BUT THE MAIN P-TYPE TODAY SHOULD
BE RAIN AS WARMER AIR INTRUDES ALOFT.

STORM SYSTEM...MID CONUS THIS MORNING...IS EVOLVING QUICKLY WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI...COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MS VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WITH LEADING
SHORT WAVE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES TODAY...THE
PARENT LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES...THE SURFACE FRONT GETTING PROPELLED EAST TO NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF AND THE
FORMATION OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT AND RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN. RAIN WILL LIKELY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVHD LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...A SLOWING FRONT WITH
FRONTAL WAVE...ALL INDICATORS POINT TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT
FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE TERRAIN
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR SOME DEEPER CONVECTION THURSDAY AS WARMER SURFACE AIR
INTRUDES NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS...INCREASING CAPE AND
PWATS...AND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN RATES AND EFFICIENCY.
AS SUCH THINK ALL AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE
OPPORTUNITY TO TEST 3 INCHES...AND NOT JUST CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT IS BY FAR THE GREATEST WEATHER
HAZARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECONDARY HAZARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. A 60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT TODAY. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM BLUEFIELD TO
TAZEWELL AND SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA...AND THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL NEED TO UPGRADE THESE TO
WARNINGS IF OBSERVED GUSTS EXCEED 55 MPH.

TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MOST AREAS ANCHORED IN THE 40S
TODAY...WITH NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A MYRIAD OF ISSUES TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. FIRST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO CONVERGE THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AT 12Z (7 AM EST)
THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES
IN THE EAST BETWEEN 1 AND 1.2 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL BASED ON GSO PWAT CLIMATOLOGY...WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE. APPEARS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH PRECIP VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM WRAPPING PRECIP BACK INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES A DRY SLOT INTO
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LOW LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ARRIVING EXPECT A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PRECIP...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...SO KEPT POPS IN THE EAST GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY WHICH ALLOWS SFC
BASED CAPES TO REACH BETWEEN 100-400 J/KG PER THE NAM.
THEREFORE...KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THIS REGION AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A COUPLE OF STORMS BECOME SVR WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE IN THE
EAST...WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

NEXT ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LONGER DURATION OF PRECIP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH THE ECMWF KEEPS IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. AS A RESULT...INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ISSUED DURING LATER FORECASTS.

WITH MODEL TRENDS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW RESULTING IN
STRONGER CAA...LOWER TEMPS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. AS SFC RIDGE FINALLY
BUILDS FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS LOWERED LOW TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM
INTO OUR AREA...THIS TIME AS A CLIPPER COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...WHERE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY. WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS BECOME DIVERGENT BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS MODEL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS ALMOST A FULL DAY SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION
AS...CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED
STATES NEXT WEEK...NOT SURE WHAT WOULD BE HOLDING THIS STORM SYSTEM
UP FROM PUSHING TO THE EAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. AT ANY
RATE...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO PUSH WELL OFF SHORE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE WEST TODAY...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD MVFR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING IFR. ANY PRECIP
THIS MORNING MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...BUT THE MAIN P-TYPE
AT THE SURFACE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT TODAY. BLF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRONG SOUTHEAST
WIND GUSTS... UP TO 35 KNOTS. ELSW ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
LOOKING AT THE STRONG JET REMAINING ALOFT SO INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KROA AND KLWB.

RAINFALL WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MTNS...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY SLOW
DOWN...AND LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL
EVENING. IN THE MTNS WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE KEEPING MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY IFR AT BLF. SHRA ON
WESTERN SLOPES THU EVE WILL BE CHANGING TO SHSN WITH SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THRU THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SE WVA...INCLUDING
BLF AND LWB.

VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING MVFR CONDS AND PRECIPITATION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF EVENT NEXT 24 HOURS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW FAST THE FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH DEPENDING ON HOW SOON ENERGY DIGS INTO THE TROUGH AND
CAUSE IT TO BECOME NEG TILTED...WITH A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COMMON. THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS...CLOSER
TO 3 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A CONVECTIVE BAND TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. IF DEEP CONVECTION FORMS...THEN
RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH...AND THE HIGHER QPF WILL BE CONFINED TO
A SMALLER TIME STEP.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD
SMALL STREAM FLOODING...WHICH WILL LIKELY MORPH INTO RIVER
FLOODING. ANYONE LIVING IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA NEEDS TO TAKE ACTION
AND CLOSELY MONITOR STREAM LEVELS. SMALL STREAMS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE RIVERS...HAVE NOT RECOVERED FROM LAST WEEKENDS HEAVY RAIN.
STREAM LEVELS WILL START WITH A HIGHER BASE FLOW...AND WILL FLOOD
MUCH QUICKER TO THIS NEXT SURGE OF RUNOFF!

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ043>047-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ020.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JJ/PM
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
539 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-101045-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-
539 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY.
   ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ043>045-101045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
539 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SATURATED SOILS AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES AND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-101045-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
539 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DANVILLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SATURATED SOILS AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES AND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-032-091800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...
STUART
952 AM EST WED MAR 9 2011

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...

EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS A FEW HUNDRED FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION WHEN OUT TRAVELING...AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. INTERSTATE 77 IN CARROL COUNTY
VIRGINIA IS ONE MAJOR INTERSTATE THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY PERIODS OF
LOW VISIBILITIES.

MC