Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

127 
WGUS61 KRNK 151354
FFARNK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS LEFT THE GROUND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY MOIST...IF NOT STILL SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE UPSLOPE TO
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEIGHBORING AREAS. THESE
HEAVY RAINS MAY PROMPT FLASH FLOODING OR MUDSLIDES. EITHER WAY...
THE RAINS WILL CAUSE THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED JUST BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING.

VAZ010-011-WVZ042>045-152200-
/O.EXA.KRNK.FF.A.0001.110416T0400Z-110416T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLAND-GILES-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLAND...PEARISBURG...BLUEFIELD...
FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...
RAINELLE
954 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 
  AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... 
  IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BLAND AND GILES. IN SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
  RIVER MOUNTAIN NORTH INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. THE HEAVIER
  RAINS WILL COME WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY.

* QUICK RISES AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING OF STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS
  ARE POSSIBLE. MUD AND ROCK SLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN COULD OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-152200-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0001.110416T0400Z-110416T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...
PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD...AMHERST
954 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE... 
  SURRY...WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY 
  VA...AMHERST...BATH...BEDFORD...BOTETOURT...CARROLL...CRAIG... 
  FLOYD...FRANKLIN...GRAYSON...MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PULASKI... 
  ROANOKE...ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE. 

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE 
  RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL 
  QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE SAME AREA DURING 
  THE DAY SATURDAY FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF 
  COLD FRONT. 

* QUICK RISES AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING OF STREAMS AND SMALL 
  RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE. MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN COULD OCCUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

047 
WGUS61 KRNK 151954
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS LEFT THE GROUND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY MOIST...IF NOT STILL SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE UPSLOPE TO
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEIGHBORING AREAS. THESE
HEAVY RAINS MAY PROMPT FLASH FLOODING OR MUDSLIDES. EITHER WAY...
THE RAINS WILL CAUSE THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED JUST BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...RIVERS
WILL RESPOND TO THE HEAVY RAINS BY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-160400-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0001.110416T0400Z-110416T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...
BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
354 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...
   ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...AMHERST...BATH...BEDFORD...BLAND... 
  BOTETOURT...CARROLL...CRAIG...FLOYD...FRANKLIN...GILES... 
  GRAYSON...MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PULASKI...ROANOKE... 
  ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... 
  GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
  EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT
  INTO SATURDAY. 

* QUICK RISES AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING OF STREAMS AND SMALL 
  RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE. MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN COULD OCCUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

339 
WGUS61 KRNK 160141
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
941 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS LEFT THE GROUND ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY MOIST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL
HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NEIGHBORING AREAS. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY RESULT FLASH FLOODING
OR MUDSLIDES. 

THE RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED JUST
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AND POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING. 

IN ADDITION...MAIN-STEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE HEAVY RAINS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-161000-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0001.110416T0400Z-110416T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...
BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
941 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...
   ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...AMHERST...BATH...BEDFORD...BLAND... 
  BOTETOURT...CARROLL...CRAIG...FLOYD...FRANKLIN...GILES... 
  GRAYSON...MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PULASKI...ROANOKE... 
  ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... 
  GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
  EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT
  INTO SATURDAY.

* QUICK RISES AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING OF STREAMS AND SMALL 
  RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE. MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN COULD OCCUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

113 
WGUS61 KRNK 160910
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND HAS BEEN
HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEIGHBORING AREAS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND ALSO BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN. 

IN ADDITION...MAIN-STEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE HEAVY RAINS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-161715-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110416T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...
BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
510 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST 
  VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...
   ALLEGHANY NC...ASHE...SURRY...WATAUGA...WILKES AND YADKIN. IN 
  VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...AMHERST...BATH...BEDFORD...BLAND... 
  BOTETOURT...CARROLL...CRAIG...FLOYD...FRANKLIN...GILES... 
  GRAYSON...MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PULASKI...ROANOKE... 
  ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... 
  GREENBRIER...MERCER...MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
  EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

* QUICK RISES AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING OF STREAMS AND SMALL 
  RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE. MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN COULD OCCUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
SUNDAY...WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALL EYES TURN TOWARD THE POTENT UPPER LOW OVER KS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...TRACKING THE
UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO IL/IN BY SAT MORNING AS IT SLOWLY OPENS
UP...THEN BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SAT. THIS BRINGS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A
STRONGLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BY SAT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER JET
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND BRINGS THE
THE LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN OTHER WORDS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE HOW FAST THE CLOUDS SPREAD INTO
THE AREA. WITH A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
WEST...LOOKS LIKE THE MTNS WILL GET LESS SUN TODAY. THERE IS NO SIGN
OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE UPSLOPE SE FLOW YET...SO IS LOWED
DOWN THE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MORE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MAINLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY UPSLOPE
SHOWERS EVEN IN TH ENC MTNS UNTIL AFTER 400 PM TODAY.

TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG SE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 50 KNOTS AT 850 MBS BY 00Z/800 PM...AND AS
HIGH AS 70 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THESE SE WINDS TEND TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS ON THE NW...OR DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE HIGHER SW-NE
ORIENTED RIDGES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS INTO
TAZEWELL COUNTY...WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF 50+ KNOT GUSTS IN
NEARBY COUNTIES OF SMYTH...BLAND AND MERCER. HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. REST OF THE MTNS...SINCE WE ARE
EXPECTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER..WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS- MAINLY BETWEEN 200 AM AND 800 AM. HAVE
ALSO BEEFED UP THE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MODELS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF
SOUTHEAST FLOW...WITH NO WEDGE...AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BOTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND FROM THE GULF. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
N SATURDAY...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORENOON
PRIOR THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BEHIND BY THE COLD FRONT. THE TRIPLE
POINT AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE OCCLUDED...COLD AND WARM FRONTS
WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY.
ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER ALSO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WHILE AN ALMOST SATURATED PROFILE WILL LIMITING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...0-3 KM HELICITY IS PROGGED TO BE EXTREMELY
HIGH WITH MANY AREAS AT OR EVEN ABOVE 1000 M2/S2 WITHIN THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH THE PREVAILING CLOUDY SKIES WILL ADD FUEL
TO THE FIRE.

BY THE AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
EASTWARD. THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA SHOULD SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING A DRY
FORECAST WITH WEAKER WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ON
MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE PREVAILING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WE CURRENTLY ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT LOOK FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SE
COAST AND POSITION OF A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE OP GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS WARMER H85 TEMPS. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL NOT OVERCOME THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THAT ANY SHWS OR
STORMS WHICH APPROACH WILL FALL APART ONCE THEY REACH OUR REGION.
CONSIDERING VERY WARM H85 VALUES...DECIDED TO GO ABV MEX MOS AND
HPC ON MAX AND MIN T THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DISPLACE THE UPPER
RIDGE...AND WILL EITHER FALL APART UPON CROSSING OUR TERRITORY OR
BECOME A BACKDOOR FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THE NW WINDS BEHIND THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY MAY JUST KEEP
SHWS AND STORMS RESERVED TO SE WEST VA THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHWS AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 80S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR UNDER A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING
EAST TO SERLY FLOW.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THE JET ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE...EXCEPT
IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SW VA AND SRN WV...WHICH WOULD BE THE
NW SIDES OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME STRONG
WINDS GUSTS INTO THE BLUEFIELD AIRPORT. THINK THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE AFTER 06Z/200 AM...BUT HAVE ADDED IN SOME 37 KNOT GUSTS TO
THE BLF TAF BEFORE 06Z. REST OF THE AIRPORTS WILL HAVE LLWS
DEVELOP. I HAVE ADDED IT INTO ALL OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS EXCEPT
DANVILLE...WHERE THE LLWS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z/200AM. IN
ADDITION...MVFR CIGS WITH UPSLOPE RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BLACKSBURG...ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z.

THE VERY STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION COULD
BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ALSO MAY TAP INTO THE STRONG
WINDS...BRINGING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. THERE WILL A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...MOST LIKELY IN THE PIEDMONT OUT TOWARD
LYH AND DAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY OF A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALL SITES...EXCEPT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
AT BLUEFIELD...POSSIBLY 50+ KNOTS.

VFR RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS
TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH A DOWNSLOPE DRYING COMPONENT OVER SE WV...HUMIDITIES COULD
DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THICKER MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MAX
HEATING...AND HUMIDITIES WILL STAY ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25
PERCENT IN WV.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 400 PM
SATURDAY. THREE MAIN FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WATCH. MANY
PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN ONLY TWO TO THREE DAYS
AGO. VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...AND BE A VERY
GOOD UPSLOPE RAIN PRODUCER ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
NEIGHBORING COUNTIES. AS THE UPSLOPE ENDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER WHAT MAY BE AN ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND BY THAT TIME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ011>020.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ007-009-010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ043>045.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JJ
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ011>020-023-024-WVZ044-151915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MONROE-
306 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022-032>035-043>047-058-059-151915-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
306 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ009-WVZ043-045-151915-
SMYTH-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
306 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...ARE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-010-WVZ042-151915-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-MERCER-
306 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...ARE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.