Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Blacksburg, VA

337 
WGUS71 KRNK 062109
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAC161-770-775-062120-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-110707T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-
509 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CITY OF
ROANOKE...THE CITY OF SALEM... EASTERN ROANOKE COUNTY...

FLOODING HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3726 8008 3729 8009 3732 8003 3735 7993
      3730 7986 3725 7987 3720 7994

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1124 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
RESULTING IN MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO LATE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BRINGING HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KFCX RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. SPS ANALYSIS AT 14Z/10AM SHOWED A WEAK CAP AND CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA THROUGH 3PM. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STORMS TODAY SINCE STORM MOTION IS ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON THE AREA
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE OVER OHIO WITH THE TAIL OF
THE WAVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
AREA...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS
ENOUGH TO PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
RUC...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY BOUT
02Z/10PM. HAVE ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
TIMING.

MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME DRYING ALOFT MAY WORK IN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NORTH LATE WHILE SHRA MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SE
UNLESS THINGS ORGANIZE MORE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE FARTHER SE
PER THE LATEST NAM.

SINCE THIS LOOKS A BIT FAST GIVEN SO MUCH MOISTURE AROUND...WILL
LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LIKELY JUST A
LITTLE COOLER PRIMARILY DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION...AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS OUTSIDE THE PIEDMONT BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKING ALONG IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVES WILL TRACK WEST OF THE
REGION. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR AND WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING...CONVECTION WILL START ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREAD TO THE FOOTHILLS
IN THE MID AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. OUT FLOW FROM THE BLUE RIDGE STORMS WILL BRING SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS
PWATS RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE
WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POSSIBILITY WILL BE ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER TO INCLUDE SOUTHSIDE VA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLASH FLOOD POSSIBLE. THE THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY A FEW BECOMING SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS AFTERNOON STORMS
FIRE EARLY. OUT EAST...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LIKELY. FRIDAY WILL BE
A TAD COOLER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WE ANTICIPATE THE PREVAILING
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRANSITION FROM A GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO A PATTERN OF A BUILDING UPPER
HIGH OVER THE REGION. ANTICIPATE GENEROUS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION AND ACTS AS A
FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STAYED CLOSE THE HPC
NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING ESPCLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NW SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME
OF THIS TO LINGER THRU MID MORNING OR SO BEFORE HEATING CAUSES THE
SHRA TO BRIEFLY FADE BEFORE RENEWED CONVECTION GETS GOING AROUND
MIDDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A
PREVAILING SHRA FROM KBLF/KLWB EAST TO KLYH THIS MORNING AND
PERHAPS KBCB PENDING HOW FAR EAST THIS NEW AREA OF SHRA MAKES IT.
OTRW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL TEMPO IN A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA INCLUDING A BIT OF MVFR IN FOG TO INIT AT A COUPLE OF
THE WESTERN SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A SCTD/BKN CU FIELD FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY AS THE
INITIAL WAVE PASSES. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY LINGER AROUND IN SPOTS AND ACT TO DELAY LATER COVERAGE A BIT.
OTRW PLAN TO KEEP IN GOING CB MENTION MOST SPOTS AND INCLUDE A
VCTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST WHERE BETTER POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO EXIST FOR MORE SCTD TO ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE TSRA EXIT THIS EVENING ALLOWING A BIT OF DRYING ALOFT
WHICH MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SPELL
MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG ESPCLY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER HEAVIER
CONVECTION SO TAKING JUST ABOUT ALL SPOTS DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS LATE
AND IFR OR WORSE AT SPOTS LIKE KLWB/KBCB/KLYH PENDING RAINFALL TODAY.

ANTICIPATE DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA. INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT MAY FINALLY SHUT DOWN THE DAILY
CONVECTIVE REGIME ON SUNDAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION
CONDENSES UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1137 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-
058-059-071100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1137 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ011-018>020-WVZ042>045-071100-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1137 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
112 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAZ033-061745-
FRANKLIN VA-
112 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 108 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FERRUM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF
ON OR NEAR PHILPOTT RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. SUDDEN WIND GUSTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CAPSIZE YOUR VESSEL.

THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3680 8005 3682 8007 3685 8007 3685 8011
      3686 8014 3690 8010 3686 7997 3679 8003

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
117 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAZ043-061745-
HENRY VA-
117 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENRY COUNTY...

AT 112 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARTINSVILLE
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.
DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CHATMOSS AROUND 135 PM AND LEATHERWOOD AROUND
140 PM.

LAT...LON 3673 7971 3662 7975 3667 7999 3675 7996

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
119 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAZ032-061745-
PATRICK VA-
119 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PATRICK COUNTY...

AT 117 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 7 MILES
WEST OF STUART TO ARARAT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS.
DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR STUART AROUND 145 PM.

LAT...LON 3665 8023 3657 8044 3662 8060 3668 8039

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
125 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAZ033-061800-
FRANKLIN VA-
125 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 121 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONETA TO FERRUM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. IF ON OR NEAR
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...GET
OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. SUDDEN WIND
GUSTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAPSIZE YOUR VESSEL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WESTERN SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE AROUND 150 PM
AND SONTAG AROUND 200 PM.

LAT...LON 3689 8009 3715 7983 3713 7965 3709 7963
      3684 7988

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAZ044>047-058-059-061800-
APPOMATTOX VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-CAMPBELL VA-CHARLOTTE VA-HALIFAX VA-
PITTSYLVANIA VA-
129 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM...
CAMPBELL...CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 125 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FARMVILLE TO MT AIRY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR BROOKNEAL AROUND 145 PM...MADISONVILLE
AROUND 155 PM AND PHENIX AROUND 200 PM.

LAT...LON 3733 7847 3733 7852 3736 7858 3727 7867
      3720 7869 3720 7864 3716 7861 3714 7856
      3692 7894 3695 7928 3742 7850 3742 7841

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

VAZ043-044-061815-
HENRY VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
152 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENRY AND PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTIES...

AT 151 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MARTINSVILLE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.
DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR AXTON AROUND 205 PM AND AIKEN SUMMIT AROUND
215 PM.

LAT...LON 3655 7990 3673 7991 3680 7945 3654 7943
      3654 7970

DS