Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Blacksburg, VA

344 
WGUS71 KRNK 212214
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
614 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC193-220315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILKES NC-
614 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTY...

AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THAT ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ALONG 
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WILKESBORO
RESERVOIR...CRICKET...BUCK...MILLERS CREEK AND MAPLE SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3604 8139 3607 8142 3607 8144
      3609 8146 3622 8141 3625 8117 3603 8120
      3602 8127 3599 8133

$$

JH

200 
WGUS71 KRNK 220130
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
930 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC193-220140-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILKES NC-
930 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILKES
COUNTY...

NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE WARNED 
AREA...AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 
HOUR. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3604 8139 3607 8142 3607 8144
      3609 8146 3622 8141 3625 8117 3603 8120
      3602 8127 3599 8133

$$

DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE EAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTENING ALOFT...WHICH
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN IMPACTS...HAS ALLOWED
THUNDERSTORMS TO START FORMING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. MLCAPE OF
BETWEEN 2 AND 3K J/KG ACROSS THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND DECENT DOWNDRAFT CAPE AS WELL. DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK TODAY AND THUS ANY ORGANIZATION OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE COLD POOL DRIVEN. THIS SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF ANY EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN
ABOVE PARAMETERS...STORMS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY
PULSE UP TO SEVERE LIMITS. LESS CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR EAST THESE
STORMS MAKE IT. HIGH RES MODELS MIXED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR
SHOWS THE STORMS MAKING IT ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA AND GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
CAPE VALUES THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE...AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS. HOWEVER
WEAK SHEAR AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD MAY ALSO LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT
OF STORMS...AND THUS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH STORMS CURRENTLY FIRING OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR BRING WHAT
REMAINS OF THESE STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9PM TONIGHT
AND PUSH IT EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AGAIN WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MINIMAL...THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME ORGANIZING AND
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA. THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THESE
AFTERNOONS STORMS ABATE THE INSTABILITY OVER US. IF THEY USE UP MOST
OF IT THEN ANYTHING APPROACHING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN...AND FEEL
THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND EXPECTED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE SOME FOG FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING
WHERE IT RAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET A COUPLE HOURS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY...AROUND 19 TO 21C. THUS HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
80S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW TO MID 90S IN THE PIEDMONT. ONE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...THUS
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY MOST PLACES. GIVEN
THIS...LOWERED FORECASTED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...GOING IN BETWEEN
THE COOLER MET AND WARMER MAV VALUES...WHICH HAS VERIFIED PRETTY
WELL THIS SUMMER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BEST
CHANCE IN THE WEST WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SREF PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES BY 18Z IN THE
WEST...WITH A DECENT SHOT OF AT LEAST SOME PRECIP IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONCE AGAIN WEAK...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY. BEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE
HIGHER DYNAMICS AND BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. THIS SHOWN WELL BY
SREF AND MAV SVR PROBABILITIES. NAM SHOWS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON...AND THUS MET SVR PROBABILITIES AND POPS ARE HIGHER
THERE. FEEL BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHILE
BEST SVR THREAT WOULD BE TO OUR NORTHWEST OF WV AND OHIO...AND IN THE
PIEDMONT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO CROSS THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR
IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP
PLACEMENT. LEANING TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH BRINGS ONE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WED EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE SW. ONCE THAT WAVE PASSES...OP MODELS KEEP
PRECIP AT A MIN AS MAIN THRUST OF LIFT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWER PWATS THU-THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
POPS LOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LEE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE WEST. THIS MAY LEAD TO LESS CHANCE IN THE EAST THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STILL COULD SEE SOME SCTD CONVECTION FRI AFTN IN THE FAR EAST.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL REFLECT A BLEND OF MAV/MET. WILL SEE SOME
COOLER TEMPS BY THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH
THU-FRI...CLOSER TO 90 OUT EAST AHEAD OF FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LOW CENTER TRANSITION FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SERIAL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

HPCGUIDE USED FOR THE MOST OF LONG TERM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO REFLECT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL BIAS DRIVEN
MAINLY BY TOPOGRAPHY.

FRONT BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN BUCKLING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND HIGH CENTER IS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE.
IN GENERAL...THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO/OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINTAINING A GOOD THREAT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FINAL SHORT WAVE SHOULD FORCES COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. KEPT SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA UP TO AROUND BLF.
THUS HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP AT BLUEFIELD. STILL A CHANCE THAT
STORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
IMPACT OTHER TAF SITES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO PUT ANYTHING OTHER THAN CB IN THE TAFS. IF CAUGHT IN ONE
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ONE SHOULD EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME...WITH HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. BEST CHANCE
SHOULD BE FROM 3PM TO 8PM IN THE WEST...5PM TO 10PM AROUND BCB AND
ROA...AND 6PM TO 10PM LYH AND DAN.

FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST AREAS TONIGHT...THUS NOT EXPECTING
VISIBILITY DROPS TO BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER IF CLEARING CAN
OCCUR...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSER FOG AROUND LYH AND WHEREVER
IT RAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH A
FRONT IN THE VICINITY...WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR.

JUST HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT MOVES WILL BE THE ISSUE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THURSDAY MAY BE OUR DRIEST DAY...WITH THE FRONT STAYING CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE USUAL MORNING FOG EACH
MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MC/NF
NEAR TERM...MC
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MC/NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ035-043>047-058-059-221930-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-WVZ042>045-221930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SECONDARY THREATS INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W POPLAR HILL         37.21N 80.79W
06/21/2011                   GILES              VA   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

WERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             6 N BLOWING ROCK        36.21N 81.67W
06/21/2011  E0.50 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
428 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             1 SSE DEEP GAP          36.22N 81.51W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL ON OWL REST LANE.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
437 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW ROANOKE           37.33N 79.98W
06/21/2011  E62 MPH          CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   ASOS

            62 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE ROANOKE REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             2 SSE ROANOKE           37.25N 79.94W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   PUBLIC

            HAIL OBSERVED AT THE ROANOKE HOSPITAL.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
521 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             2 ESE ASHLAND           36.43N 81.62W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       ASHE               NC   PUBLIC

&&

EH