Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
835 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO CENTRAL PA...AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH CENTRAL KY TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN KY. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS LOCATED FROM LOWER MI ACROSS INDIANA ACROSS WESTERN KY INTO
ARKANSAS.

FARTHER TO THE EAST...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY...OH AND WV.

THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...I STILL
EXPECT THEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WILL PUSH EAST.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR HOURLY DETERMINISTIC POPS FOR MAIN WAVE
WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE WAVE...EXITING THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BEFORE THE LOW POST FRONTAL CLOUDS LIFT.

KEEPING OUR POPS MOSTLY AOA NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  WAS A BIT SLOWER IN LIFTING THE
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW...NOT UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY.

FIRST NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE I CAN RECALL FOR A WHILE...FOR
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.  TRIED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVER THE LOWLAND THROUGH 15Z OR 16Z...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  TRIED TO HAVE TEMPERATURE RECOVER A FEW DEGREES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES FROM 18Z TO 21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EAST OF AREA AT START OF PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER OVER THE CWA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT...AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW HELD ONTO SOME CLOUD COVER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF CLEARING WOULD OCCUR...THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS
IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT A PASSING SHORTWAVE...MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVELING THROUGH
THE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...BUT WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN E-W ORIENTED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WV.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THESE STORMS SHOPULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THRU 02Z...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING...WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.

CEILINGS AT 5 TO 8 THSD FT BKN TO OVC WILL OVERSPREAD OHIO RIVER
COUNTIES BY 06Z...REACHING MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 09Z. SHOWERS
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES WILL REACH OHIO
RIVER COUNTIES BY 06Z...THEN INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 12Z.
CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES 15Z TO 18Z. CLOUDS
LIFTING OVER THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES 15Z TO 18Z TO 2 THSD FT BKN
AND VSBY AOA 5 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS TONIGHT MAY BE
FASTER. TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF POST FRONTAL/WAVE LOW
STRATUS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/JSH
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150600-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
154 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
932 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             3 NNW GREENUP           38.61N  82.86W
09/14/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENUP            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            40 MPH WIND IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100869

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
943 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             LLOYD              38.53N 82.95W
09/14/2011  U1.75 INCH       GREENUP            KY   PUBLIC

            GLASS PATIO DOOR DESTROYED...DAMAGE TO CARS REPORTED

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
945 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             PEDRO                   38.66N 82.64W
09/14/2011  U0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           OH   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

OHZ086-087-WVZ007-150300-
GALLIA OH-LAWRENCE OH-MASON WV-
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GALLIA...EAST CENTRAL
LAWRENCE AND MASON COUNTIES...

AT 1000 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
RIO GRANDE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ADAMSVILLE AROUND 1010 PM...GALLOPOLIS FERRY
AROUND 1020 PM...GALLIPOLIS AROUND 1025 PM...HENDERSON AROUND 1030
PM...POINT PLEASANT...AND KYGER AROUND 1035 PM AND CHESHIRE AROUND
1040 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3884 8246 3889 8244 3900 8210 3897 8209
      3900 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200 3899 8197
      3899 8194 3893 8190 3889 8193 3873 8179
      3864 8245 3885 8255

26