Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN MONDAY AND LINGERS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA IS
WEAKENING AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE STARTS TO PULL OUT.  RUC SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS...EVEN IF ITS QPF IS LACKING.  ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  PUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...AND ADDED LIKELY TO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.  SPC EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THINK THESE STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.  AS FAR A TEMPERATURES...KNOCKED THEM DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WET BULB EFFECT FROM RAIN.  STILL
MAY BE ENOUGH TIME THIS AFTERNOON TO RECOVER TOWARDS 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL START THE WORKWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THE
PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT TWEAK THE TIMING
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BESIDES THE OBVIOUS KEY TO THE LATER PERIODS...THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE EXPECTED TROPICAL STORM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES BY DAY 6...I THINK ANOTHER MAJOR KEY IS WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS AND WEAKENS. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT APPROACHES US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WAS THINKING HPC GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...PUSHING THURSDAYS FRONT TO THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. NOTICE THEIR UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON...IS
TRENDING SLOWER.  WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT FRONT MAY STALL OUT
AND LINGER IN THE OLD MOUNTAINS AND HOLLOWS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  AS A RESULT...I HELD ONTO SOME
POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

AS A RESULT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.  FOR EXAMPLE...WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...IN SOUTHERN WV COULD
PICTURE LINGERING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...OR THE OTHER SCENARIO
WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE E WINDS AND SUNSHINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FROM MORNING CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA.  ACTIVITY NOW FIRING ACROSS OHIO AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT.  FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND PULL
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT.  MOST AREAS SHOULD BE VFR
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR UNDERNEATH ANY CELLS.  GOING
TO TRY TO TIME HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WITH TEMPOS IN THE TAFS.  PRECIP
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY 06Z SAVE FOR LINGERING SHRA IN EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.  FOG TIMING IS TRICKY AND DEPENDS ON CLEARING...BUT FIGURE
MOST VALLEYS SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR OVERNIGHT.  THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD GET MORE STRATUS THAN FOG ACCORDING
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS.  ONCE MIXING GETS GOING BY MID MONDAY
MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL REVERT BACK TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD DIFFER.  ALSO...FOG TIMING/DEPTH COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON OVERNIGHT SKY CLEARING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...CL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

OHZ067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-036>040-046-047-
221300-
MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE-CABELL-
MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY THAT COULD
CAUSE STREET AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-221300-
PERRY-
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ANY STORM
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033>035-221300-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCAL STREET AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
859 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

OHZ076-WVZ010-011-211330-
PLEASANTS WV-TYLER WV-WASHINGTON OH-
859 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
PLEASANTS AND TYLER COUNTIES...

AT 856 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
ST. MARYS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MATAMORAS AROUND 905 AM...SISTERSVILLE AROUND
915 AM AND MIDDLEBOURNE AROUND 930 AM.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3959 8090 3960 8084 3957 8082 3956 8079
      3953 8075 3941 8076 3944 8125 3959 8125
      3958 8104 3955 8103 3961 8095

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

OHZ086-087-211800-
GALLIA OH-LAWRENCE OH-
120 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHERN GALLIA COUNTIES...

AT 118 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OAK HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GAGE AROUND 135 PM AND CROWN CITY AROUND 200
PM.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3885 8257 3884 8246 3887 8245 3876 8220
      3873 8219 3868 8219 3863 8217 3860 8217
      3859 8220 3860 8226 3857 8230 3855 8230
      3875 8266

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

OHZ086-WVZ006-007-014-211830-
CABELL WV-GALLIA OH-MASON WV-PUTNAM WV-
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABELL...PUTNAM...
SOUTH CENTRAL GALLIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GALLIPOLIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ASHTON AROUND 210 PM AND FRAZIERS BOTTOM
AROUND 230 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
34 AND 40 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3882 8232 3860 8179 3839 8194 3857 8229
      3858 8229 3858 8231 3861 8236 3867 8235
      3868 8242

24