Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.  A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY.  THE HEAT WILL BUILD AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST 88D AND SATELLITE SHOW CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OH OUT AHEAD OF MCS LOCATED OVER
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SAT
TRENDS SHOW DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT INTO
SE OH BY ABOUT 00Z. PAINTED A BROAD BRUSH OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE MID CLOUDS IN PLACE FROM RESIDUAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY...
WE SHOULD COME IN BELOW HEAT ADV CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION
IN ADDITION...PASSAGE OF SURFACE INTRODUCES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE GRIDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH BRINGS OUR HEAT INDEX
VALUES BACK DOWN TO BEARABLE LEVELS. BASED TEMPS MOSTLY ON RAW
LOCAL MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  ATTM THINKING TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA.  AFTER THE FROPA...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS ARE ON THEIR WAY UP AGAIN...WITH NEAR 90 HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S SO
AT LEAST IT WONT BE AS SOUPY FEELING OUTSIDE AND HEAT INDICES WILL
BE MUCH LOWER THAN LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
HEAT RETURNS MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
RELIEF FROM THE DRY WEATHER AND HEAT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.  RAIN AND STORMS WILL DOMINATE THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE RAIN MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE HOT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...MAINLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDS AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. SITES THAT GET ANY DECENT DOWNPOURS FROM
EVENING CONVECTION MAY SEE ENHANCED FG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS
DUE TO REINFORCEMENT OF MOIST BL FROM PRECIPITATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR CONDS DEPENDS ON LOCATION
AS WELL AS HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
FOG AND RAIN MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. IFR FOG
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING UPON EXTEND OF CLEARING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>026-029.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JEE
LONG TERM...JEE
AVIATION...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ027-028-030>040-046-047-251900-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-CLAY-BRAXTON-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
249 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-
029-251900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-
BOONE-GILMER-
249 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      E BELINGTON             39.02N  79.93W
07/24/2011                   BARBOUR            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ROUTE 92 PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY HIGH WATER IN BELINGTON
            AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100807

JFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1031 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTROSE                39.12N 79.79W
07/24/2011  3.01             RANDOLPH           WV   PUBLIC

            TO 4.00 INCHES.

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

WVZ014-242030-
PUTNAM WV-
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTY...

AT 356 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
WINFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR TEAYS VALLEY AROUND 415 PM AND POCA AROUND
430 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
32 AND 45 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3862 8199 3850 8174 3843 8182 3840 8190
      3835 8191 3834 8192 3843 8206 3855 8206

09