Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE HIGH
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FORMING ON MOST OF OUR FLANKS...AND THINKING THE
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...AND WV MOUNTAINS.  THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF A VORT MAX JUST TO OUR WEST AND 700MB DEFORMATION
FORMING OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS.  FLOW IS WEEK ACROSS THE REGION SO
THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
ON RAINFALL DUE TO THE VERY JUICY ATMOSPHERE WE ARE IN.  LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE WV
MOUNTAINS.  EXPECTING MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...LEADING INTO
CONTINUED HAZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.  CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
TOMORROW AS A WEAK FRONT TO OUR NORTH MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.
THINKING THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OUR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW...TO
RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR MANY AREAS.  THEREFORE...THE SOUPY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.  HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...WE ARE STILL ON
TARGET TO GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH PRECIP WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.

PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL GIVE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SWELTERING HEAT OF
THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WILL BE
LIKELY POSSIBLE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH HPC FOR THIS FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
CRW...PKB...CKB...WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE LINGERING HAZE.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE
TSRA IN ANY TAFS DUE TO COMPLEXITY OF FORECAST. HOWEVER TSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP...MOSTLY IN SOUTHEAST OH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
PUT CBS IN ALL TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE HTS AND PKB IN
MVFR BY 5Z.  THE REST OF THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
VSBYS BY 8Z.  HOPEFULLY THE TERMINALS WILL ALL COME UP TO VFR AROUND
12Z TOMORROW AND BE FREE OF THE HAZE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-014.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ013-015>020-
     024>034-039-040.
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/JEE
NEAR TERM...JEE
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...JEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ013-015>020-024>034-039-040-231630-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-LINCOLN-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY MAY ONCE AGAIN CREATE
HEAT INDICES OVER 100 BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NECESSITATING THE
NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ035>038-046-047-231630-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-014-231630-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-
1223 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY MAY ONCE AGAIN CREATE
HEAT INDICES OVER 100 BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NECESSITATING THE
NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>