Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.  VERY WEAK FRONT WITH SLIGHT
RELIEF TO EXCESSIVE HEAT BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALONG WESTERN FLANK OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON MOISTURE BOUNDARY AT MID
LEVELS OVER OHIO/KY WITH WEAK WAVE DROPPING DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH BRIEF LIKELY EXTREME WEST WITH WAVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  WEAK WAVE JUST TO SOUTHWEST OF CWA INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  MOST
LIKELY AREA CAN BE BETTER PINNED DOWN THURSDAY.

WITH MID 90S AND HIGH DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY HAVE ADDED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON (PERIODS ABOVE 105 APPARENT
TEMP) ALONG WITH ADVISORY (PERIODS ABOVE 100) CONTINUING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNAL
HEATING CONVECTION THAT WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. A COOL
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CREEP SOUTHWARD INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS SEPARATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
DISTINCT...BUT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO JUSTIFY
HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO IN ADDITION TO THE DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE SUBTLE AND WEAK...BUT
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SEND PARCELS UPWARDS GIVEN THE WEAK CAP IN
PLACE.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW HIGH THE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOS
NUMBERS ARE STILL ADAMANT ABOUT UPPER 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS FOR THE
MOST PART. MAV HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVER DOING THE MAX TEMPERATURES
ON THE HIGH SIDE. VEGETATION IS IN DECENT SHAPE MOISTURE WISE...AND
FEEL THIS COULD BE WORTH A COUPLE DEGREES. THEREFORE...WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HEADLINES FOR THE HEAT INDEX REMAIN LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HPC LEANED CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN
THIS CONTINUED WEAK FLOW REGIME. THUS...USED HPC GUIDANCE TO
POPULATE GRIDS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNDER HIGH VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN HAZE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY.  RIVER VALLEY IFR WITH FOG 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY.  ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT MAY BE LESS
EXTENSIVE DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND SPECIFIC HOUR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>019-024>026.
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/AAR
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>019-024>026-
211800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
151 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ020-027>032-211800-
DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
151 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033>040-046-047-211800-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
151 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
449 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

KYZ101-202115-
GREENUP KY-
449 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENUP COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PORTSMOUTH...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SOUTH PORTSMOUTH AROUND 500 PM...SOUTH SHORE
AROUND 510 PM AND GRAYS BRANCH AROUND 520 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3873 8304 3873 8297 3876 8290 3876 8289
      3874 8286 3868 8287 3867 8285 3859 8284
      3856 8280 3856 8272 3854 8307

09