Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
NEW LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG IN THE VICINITY OF THE MESO
LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA/WEST CENTRAL OHIO. ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND COOLER AIR FROM THE MESO HIGH LINGERS OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IN THE RLX CWA. THUS...HAVE REASON TO
BELIEVE THE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES ARE
LIKELY ELEVATED...WHILE THOSE FURTHER WEST ARE OPERATING UNDER THE
SURFACE BASED CAPE THAT HAS HAD VERY HIGH VALUES...PUSHING
4000J/PG FROM THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD
MAINLY AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND WEST
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. STORMS ARE MUCH MORE STOUT THIS
TIME AROUND...WITH HIGHER ECHO TOP HEIGHTS REACHING 50KFT ON
OCCASION. CONVECTION IS GETTING SOME ASSISTANCE FROM A MOIST FEED
OFF THE SURFACE SEEN AT THE 925MB LEVEL FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO
EVIDENT IS AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE WHERE THE CONVECTION IS FIRING
AS THE WINDS VEER NORTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS LINE.
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DEGRADE IN TERMS OF SUPPORT AS THE LINE
CROSSES I-64 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS FROM
THE PREVIOUS SQUALL LINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND SUB SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS WERE REPORTED AS A STORM
COMPLEX BOWED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

UPDATED POPS/WX/WIND AS THE ACTIVITY EXITED THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER OHIO...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECOVERED BY EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
OHIO AROUND 04Z...AND PORTIONS OF WV OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING CLOSELY THIS
SITUATION...IN CASE WATCHES OR WARNING ARE NEEDED. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SPC TOMORROW TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRIMMED BACK POPS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH...CLEARING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 12Z WEDS. KEEP
POPS IN FOR WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
500MB VORT MAX. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE POST FRONT ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD LIMIT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT KEPT CHC POPS IN
ALONG THE MAIN FORCING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH...POPS QUICKLY ERODE AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN DRIES UP.
KEEP TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED...WITH SOME TWEAKS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES EARLY SHOULD BE COOLER...WITH READINGS
RETURNING TO NORMAL LATER IN THE PERIOD.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD IS NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS...MAINTAINED HPC CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  POPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIURNAL IN NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CRW...HTS...BKW WHILE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM LINE IN MIST OR LIGHT FOG. IFR FOG
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN POST RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OH...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
PARTIALLY RECOVERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD REACH SOUTHEAST OH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND PORTIONS OF
WV OVERNIGHT. ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT
TRAJECTORY OF THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND OPTED TO KEEP THEM OUT
OF THE TAFS.

THIS LATER ACTIVITY IS IN RESPOND OF AN UPPER WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 06-12Z.

RIVER AND VALLEY FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION OVER NRN WV MAY CAUSE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THEN FORECAST AND RIVER-VALLEY
FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/12/11
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/TAX
NEAR TERM...26/ARJ
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1006 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-017-019-130215-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-
MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-RITCHIE-
1006 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013>016-018-020-024>040-046-047-130215-
LAWRENCE-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-
CALHOUN-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1006 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1102 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-084-086-087-WVZ005>007-120330-
BOYD KY-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-JACKSON OH-
LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-MASON WV-VINTON OH-WAYNE WV-
1102 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOYD...CARTER...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MEIGS...GALLIA...GREENUP...JACKSON...
LAWRENCE...MASON...NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN
CABELL...NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND SOUTH CENTRAL VINTON COUNTIES...

AT 1058 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF WELLSTON TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF WHEELERSBURG TO 19 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CARTER CAVES STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR RIO GRANDE AROUND 1115 PM AND ASHLAND
AROUND 1130 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 151 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 18
IN WEST VIRGINIA.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3834 8324 3871 8304 3876 8289 3859 8284
      3860 8275 3884 8266 3885 8277 3898 8281
      3925 8269 3907 8231 3901 8231 3901 8219
      3887 8190 3879 8184 3829 8242 3812 8290
      3826 8316 3820 8323 3834 8333

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1131 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>015-120445-
BOYD KY-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-JACKSON WV-
KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-MASON WV-PUTNAM WV-
WAYNE WV-
1131 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOYD...CABELL...
CARTER...GALLIA...GREENUP...LAWRENCE...MASON...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
PUTNAM...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 1126 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES
NORTH OF POINT PLEASANT TO ASHLAND TO 8 MILES NORTH OF CARTER CAVES
STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR GLOBE AROUND 1145 PM...LEON AROUND
MIDNIGHT...GIVEN AROUND 1215 AM AND LIBERTY AROUND 1230 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 149 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 45
IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 127 IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3834 8332 3834 8324 3842 8324 3874 8299
      3875 8287 3860 8285 3858 8279 3878 8267
      3884 8246 3901 8224 3901 8215 3864 8154
      3806 8228 3798 8303 3811 8290 3817 8292
      3818 8306 3826 8316 3819 8327 3828 8334

13

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