Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES SLOWLY TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL WAVES APPROACHES SUNDAY. WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST CURRENT DATA AND NEW HI RES
MODELS. MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...HAS
ORGANIZED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TORNADO WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL 01Z OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF
CURRENT CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH. THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...INITIALLY DUE TO ITS OWN COLD POOL. IT SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTED BY SHORT WAVE THAT
CATCHES UP LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT GETS
PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DROPPING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OH AND WESTERN KY.
MORNING DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
ASSOCIATED LOW AND MID LVL CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FOLLOW
SUIT...WITH MUCH OF THE MTNS STUCK IN THE CLOUDS TDY. LAST FEW HRS
HAVE SEEN THE STRATOCU FINALLY STARTING TO MIX OUT THOUGH.

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE WITH APPROACH OF YET
ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB WITH THIS
AT LEAST IN THE FORCING FIELDS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A
CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS USING VORT.

SVR POTENTIAL BEST ALONG OH RVR AND ACROSS COAL FIELDS WHERE BEST
SHEAR RESIDES ALONG WITH GREATEST AMNT OF SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
STILL WORRIED ABOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WHAT EFFECTS IT WILL
HAVE FARTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LACK OF MUCH INSOLATION
TDY ACROSS THE MTNS. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOW TOPPED AND
ABSENT OF MUCH LIGHTNING. HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR WEAK ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE CELLS.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND BECOME RATHER
DIFFUSE. HAVE FRONT IN SE OH ARND 00Z...PERHAPS CHECKING UP FOR A
TIME BEFORE RESUMING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. MAY TAKE TILL 12Z
TO CLR MTNS...WAITING FOR UPR TROF TO GO NEG TILT. HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF LKLY POPS WITH ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR AIR DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR LCL WATER PROBLEMS DESPITE PWATS COMING
DOWN. THINKING IS AS FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO FLOW COULD SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF TRAINING.

FRONT...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AS UPR TROF AND
FRESHER AIRMASS WORKS IN. MODELS AGREE IN TAKING A DISTURBANCE
THRU TOMORROW AFTN WITH UPR TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK OF
SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA OR CONVECTION IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVEN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER TOMORROW
WITH UPR TROF AND DIURNAL HEATING AIDING IN CU DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE GONE ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND A BLEND FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW. MAY TAKE TILL TOMORROW AFTN FOR LWR DWPTS TO
ARRIVE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE UPR 70S SOUTH AND MID/LOW 70S
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACTIVITY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...TO LIFT NORTH LATER
SUNDAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORM ACTIVITY RETURNS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE WITH
SOME MINOR PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED. THEREFORE...INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS WV SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NORTH OF WV BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
ALOFT. THEREFORE...REARRANGED POPS AND WX LOCATIONS HAVING CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ATTM TUESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MID WEDNESDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...BLENDED GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
BROKEN THIN LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...
WHICH IS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXITING THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 09Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...BUT
EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE MAIN LINE. COLD FRONT REACHES CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA BY 06Z AND EXITS THE MOUNTAINS BY 11Z.

VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN.
ALSO GENERALLY MVFR FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z...ESPECIALLY
WHERE HEAVIER RAINS HAVE FALLEN...SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH...AND WINDS
DROP OFF...FOR RADIATION TO OCCUR.

AFTER 12Z...CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR CEILINGS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AFTER 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE QUICKER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND FOG DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
RAIN...AND THE BRIEF CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE MVFR CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 06/24/11
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    L    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FROM INTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-241800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 541 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-VAZ003-004-WVZ009>011-017>020-028>040-046-
047-241800-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-DICKENSON-
BUCHANAN-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ105-WVZ005-013-240045-
LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-WAYNE WV-
806 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WAYNE...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 803 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 810 PM...
FALLSBURG AROUND 815 PM...FORT GAY AROUND 820 PM...GENOA AROUND 835
PM...EAST LYNN LAKE AROUND 840 PM AND KIAHSVILLE AROUND 845 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3820 8285 3822 8281 3824 8213 3799 8215
      3810 8287

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
814 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

WVZ005-006-013>015-240100-
CABELL WV-KANAWHA WV-LINCOLN WV-PUTNAM WV-WAYNE WV-
814 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE...NORTHERN
LINCOLN...SOUTHERN CABELL...SOUTHERN PUTNAM AND WEST CENTRAL KANAWHA
COUNTIES...

AT 812 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PROCTORVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SALT ROCK...AND ONA AROUND 820 PM...WEST
HAMLIN AROUND 825 PM...MILTON...AND HAMLIN AROUND 830 PM...CULLODEN
AROUND 835 PM...HURRICANE...AND SWEETLAND AROUND 840 PM...TEAYS
VALLEY AND GRIFFITHSVILLE AROUND 845 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 48 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3844 8242 3846 8176 3820 8189 3832 8246

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
817 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             COOLVILLE               39.21N 81.87W
06/23/2011  U0.75 INCH       ATHENS             OH   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
818 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             HUNTINGTON              38.40N 82.36W
06/23/2011  U0.50 INCH       CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

WVZ019-020-031-240115-
DODDRIDGE WV-HARRISON WV-RITCHIE WV-
832 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DODDRIDGE...NORTHEASTERN
RITCHIE AND WESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...

AT 829 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HARRISVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WEST UNION AROUND 845 PM...BLANDVILLE AROUND
850 PM...NEW MILTON AROUND 855 PM...SALEM AROUND 905 PM AND WOLF
SUMMIT AROUND 915 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
107 AND 109.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3937 8037 3912 8035 3912 8041 3915 8048
      3914 8052 3917 8059 3915 8062 3920 8106
      3932 8105 3933 8089 3931 8088 3929 8089
      3933 8085

28