Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
915 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. ITS VICINITY WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TWO LINES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHERN LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AIR THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE VERTICALLY STACKED REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL SFC REFLECTIONS...EVIDENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND CONVERGENCE FIELD...ALONG WITH SFC CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY JUICY AIRMASS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES...DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS...AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN
12-13KFT PER NAM/GFS MODELS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

UNDER THIS PARAMETERS...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY TWO COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
FOR DAY THREE COVERING SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND SOME WV
COUNTIES BORDERING THE OH RIVER.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS STRONGER CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY LYING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SLOPES...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND STILL HEALTHY
SEVERE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WV AND PORTIONS OF VA FRI
NIGHT.

BLENDED ECMWF/SREF AND GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY...THE NAM SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER BY MID DAY . DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS OUTPUT...WENT CLOSER TO GMOS/HPC SOLUTIONS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES REALLY DROP AS UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST...SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN LAKES...UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXACT
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN...BUT EXPANSE OF INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH SHOULD
BE DOMINANT ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IFR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. SOME BRIEF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT SOME STIRRING IN
THE ATMOSPHERE IS WORKING AGAINST IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY. IN
ADDITION...FOG MAY OR MAY NOT FORM FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR FROM INTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-221745-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND. HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-221745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND. HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WVZ031-032-039-040-047-220145-
BARBOUR WV-HARRISON WV-RANDOLPH WV-TAYLOR WV-UPSHUR WV-
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OUT OF HARRISON AND UPSHUR
COUNTIES...INTO TAYLOR...BARBOUR...RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

AT 915 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR
SHINNSTON...CLARKSBURG..BRIDGEPORT...BUCKHANNON AND ALTON.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THROUGH TAYLOR...BARBOUR AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
THESE WIND GUSTS CAN CAUSE SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUCH COMMUNITIES AS
ENTERPRISE...ROSEMONT...PHILIPPI...GRAFTON AND TYGART LAKE STATE
PARK...PLUS ELKINS BEFORE 10 O'CLOCK.

LAT...LON 3889 7951 3885 7953 3880 7950 3869 7963
      3870 7974 3874 7977 3870 7980 3873 8031
      3910 8028 3947 8050 3939 8009 3945 7996
      3944 7989 3931 7989 3923 7980 3913 7983
      3909 7978 3904 7977 3898 7944 3890 7944

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
959 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005-006-013-014-220245-
BOYD KY-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-LAWRENCE OH-
LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-PUTNAM WV-WAYNE WV-
959 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAKING THROUGH THE
TRI STATE...

AT 955 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH OUT OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO LAWRENCE AND GALLIA COUNTIES
OHIO...PLUS WAYNE...CABELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA.

IN MOST CASES...THIS CLUSTER IS NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE STORMS SEEN
EARLIER THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE COULD STILL OCCUR.  THOSE WIND SPEED ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

MORE LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR...CAUSING WATER TO POND
ON ROADS...AND QUICKLY FILLING ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR GREENUP COUNTY UNTIL 1145
PM.

LAT...LON 3859 8275 3860 8276 3877 8261 3859 8222
      3848 8206 3852 8205 3851 8204 3817 8190
      3790 8247 3795 8252 3796 8256 3821 8260
      3838 8294

22

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