Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1122 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH OUR AREA NEAR THE RING OF FIRE...THE AREA AROUND THE
RIDGE PRONE TO THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS SHOW MSTR ADVECTION AND 850
CONVERGENCE FOCUSING ALONG WESTERN FLANK OF CWA.  AS PCPN MOVES INTO
CWA FROM WEST THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AND MOISTURE STAYS WEST.  SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG WEST BUT
LIMIT POPS AS PCPN MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS AFD...
DE JA VU WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES NE OF AND SW OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL ALIGNED UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACTUALLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COMPLEX TO THE NE.  IT HAD REORGANIZED E OF THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL VA.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF FARTHER TO THE E...TAKING ITS
ASSOCIATED RAIN FARTHER FROM THE AREA.  THERE IS ACTUALLY WRAP
AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
INCLUDING ALL OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES IN LOW LEVEL NW FLOW.
THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SW THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DIURNALLY BY THEN.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET CONTINUES TO SPAWN
COMPLEXES LIKE THE ONE SW OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN TO THE
S AND W OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF BEGINNING TO EJECT OUT OF THE SW U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...E TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY.  THIS WILL GET OUT AREA INTO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET...WITH EDGE OF FIRE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON.

A COUPLE OF LARGER COMPLEXES RIDING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL
LIKELY FALL APART TODAY.  ANOTHER ONE OR TWO COMPLEXES FORMING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WILL THEN MOVE
SE...MAYBE EVEN S TONIGHT...AFFECTING AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ORIENTED ALMOST N TO S.

CLOSET TO THE LOWER MET TODAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN IT
AND THE HIGHER MAV.  LOWS TONIGHT ON THE OTHER HAND LOOK GOOD WITH
THE BETTER CONVERGED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. DEW POINTS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE 70S ON TUESDAY...AND THIS WITH EXPECTED MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS. DID ELECT TO ADD AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY DESPITE UPPER
RIDGING...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...AND AS DONT FEEL A CHANCE OF THUNDER CAN BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT CONSIDERING THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...AS WELL
AS EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...AS MODELS INDICATING PW
VALUES OF GENERALLY 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH...AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO LLJ...WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO AROUND 2
INCHES...THEREBY KEEPING CHANCES FOR WATER ISSUES AROUND. STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED BY SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
APEX OF RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON AREA ENTERING A SOUTHWEST FLOW
/AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WHICH OPENS TO UPPER TROUGH AS IT
ENTERS WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION/. WAVES WITHIN THAT SOUTHWEST
FLOW...AND EASY ACCESS TO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...SPELL A
HUMID AND BUSY LOOKING CONVECTION PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. PLACED POPS INTO 40S RANGE...AS PER HPC...FOR
NOW UNTIL INDIVIDUAL FEATURES CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MOVING E.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND EXITING LOW BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS.  CLEARING IN
KY AND OH AND WORKING INTO W WV HAS ALLOWED DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ON ACCOUNT OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.

FOG THINS OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID MORNING TO LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY AND SCATTER OUT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE UP OVER OH AND KY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE W.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE E INTO WV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.  AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD E...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LIKELY TO FORM N OR NW
OF THE AREA LATE TODAY WILL MOVE S OR SE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING NORTHERN WV.

LIGHT SW SURFACE FLOW IN THE LOWLANDS AND NW FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BECOME SW BY LATE TODAY AS A LOW TO THE E PULLS FARTHER AWAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHT SW THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN THERE
IS A LITTLE WIND...AND OF RAIN INDUCED LOWER VISIBILITY...MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR FROM INTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
431 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
037>040-046-047-210845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-
BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
431 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033>036-210845-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
431 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM / SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1202 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ101>103-OHZ083-087-201630-
BOYD KY-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-JACKSON OH-LAWRENCE OH-
1202 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOYD...CARTER...GREENUP...SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON AND WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 1157 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WEST PORTSMOUTH TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PORTSMOUTH
TO 15 MILES NORTH OF MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR GLOBE AROUND 1210 PM...GRAHN AROUND 1220 PM
AND HOPEWELL AROUND 1230 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
150 AND 183 IN KENTUCKY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3834 8324 3842 8324 3872 8304 3876 8289
      3875 8287 3859 8284 3860 8275 3868 8277
      3869 8271 3884 8266 3885 8276 3892 8276
      3885 8250 3885 8257 3878 8258 3877 8253
      3848 8264 3819 8287 3829 8334

09