Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SAILS ACROSS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXIT. A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ALONG THE FRONT. CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER DESPITE HEADING INTO
LOWER DEW POINTS AND DRIER AIR. THESE STORMS HOWEVER SHOULD WEAKEN
AND FALL APART AS IT DOES. LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS INITIALLY NW AND THEN
GENERALLY WENT WITH HIGH CHC POPS THE REST OF THE WAY AS FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. FRONT PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST MAX/MIN GUID REASONABLE WITH
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.  AS HIGH EXITS TO THE SE
LATER MON...ALLOWING SW FLOW TO DEVELOP...RING OF FIRE PATTERN SETS
UP WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES RIDING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE W AND THAN DOWN THE E
SIDE OF IT...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED OVER NY AND PA LATE LAST NIGHT
INTO TODAY.  NAM12 HINTS AS FIRST SUCH COMPLEX MON NT INTO TUE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE WED INTO WED NT.  OTHER MODELS
ARE MUCH MORE SUBTLE AT BEST WITH ANY SUCH FEATURES.

NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME TUE.
THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF AFFECTING THE
AREA MON NT...E OF THE WARM FRONT...COMPARED WITH TUE NT...ONCE THE
FRONT HAS PASSED.  IF THE DEW POINT GRADIENT CANNOT CLEAR THE AREA
BY TUE NT...THEN THE DOOR IS LEFT OPEN A BIT.
GIVEN THE TOUGH NATURE OF HITTING THE FORMATION AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT TIMING AND OVERALL PLACEMENT OF COMPLEXES OF THIS
NATURE...AND PER ISC...KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE MON
NT AND DID NOT EVEN CODE UP ANY ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES AT ALL AFTER
THAT AT THIS TIME.

LOWS LOOKED GOOD AT THIS DISTANCE.  UNLESS IT RAINS SOON...THINGS
ARE DRYING OUT...SO RAISED HIGHS TO THE LOWER MET...WITH THE
HIGHER MAV CONTINUING TO RUN TOO HIGH.  AGAIN...IF IT REMAINS
DRY...AND CLEANER RIDGING TAKES HOLD AT SOME POINT...THEN THE MAV
MAY BE GIVEN SOME CREDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASICALLY DRY FCST INTO THU AS UPPER RIDGING NOSES EWD INTO THE
AREA.  RIDGE IS ONCE AGAIN FLATTENED THU AS ANOTHER S/W TROF RIDES
OVER TOP OF IT.  THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THU NT OR
FRI.  HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WED WITH RIDGE
ALREADY FLATTENING AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCE THU INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS AND THEN CROSSES.  BEST UPPER FORCING IS THU WITH WHAT IS
LEFT OF WEAK FRONT PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA FRI AS UPPER ENERGY
MOVES E INTO NEW ENGLAND.

SHAKY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD.  HIGH IS SHAKY IN THAT IT PASSES WELL N OF THE AREA.  THIS
MAY ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO TURN AROUND AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND.

MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH HPC AND MEX REASONABLY CLOSE IN MOST
CASES.  RATHER WARM TO HOT WED AND THU AND THEN A BIT COOLER TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STARTING THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...PASSING JUST WEST
OF PKB AROUND 01-02Z. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...PERHAPS IN BETWEEN OR AFFECTING HTS AND/OR
CRW. THE THREAT FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS...BUT ITS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
STORM TRACKS AS THEY MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW.

BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS. CIGS 40-50CB WITH THIS LINE AS WELL. VFR ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JS
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
857 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

OHZ075-083>085-050200-
ATHENS OH-JACKSON OH-MEIGS OH-VINTON OH-
857 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN MEIGS...SOUTHWESTERN ATHENS AND VINTON COUNTIES...

AT 854 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LOGAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ALLENSVILLE AROUND 905 PM...CREOLA AROUND 910
PM...ZALESKI...LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...AND MCARTHUR AROUND 915 PM...
HAMDEN...AND WELLSTON AROUND 920 PM...RADCLIFFE AROUND 930 PM...
CARPENTER AND ALBANY AROUND 935 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3914 8191 3901 8257 3937 8268 3937 8264
      3938 8263 3938 8252 3940 8251 3939 8230
      3940 8229 3941 8228

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
916 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             2 W MCARTHUR            39.25N  82.52W
06/04/2011  E0.25 INCH       VINTON             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT NO DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100676

JFD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
946 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

OHZ083>087-WVZ007-050245-
GALLIA OH-JACKSON OH-LAWRENCE OH-MASON WV-MEIGS OH-VINTON OH-
946 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JACKSON...GALLIA...
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN VINTON...WEST CENTRAL MEIGS AND WESTERN MASON
COUNTIES...

AT 945 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WELLSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR VINTON...AND KYGER AROUND 955 PM...OAK HILL
AROUND 1000 PM...RIO GRANDE...CENTERPOINT...AND CHESHIRE AROUND 1005
PM...ADAMSVILLE...AND GALLIA AROUND 1010 PM...GAGE AND GALLIPOLIS
AROUND 1015 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3916 8269 3916 8223 3868 8195 3848 8264
      3849 8265 3880 8267 3880 8266 3884 8266
      3884 8267

26