Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND HOTTER
PATTERN OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 5H TROUGH WILL OPEN AND SWING TO THE
EAST TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING SFC FRONT SLOWING AS IT CROSSES THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WV. FOR REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...BATCH OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN KY...AND SOUTHEAST OH
WILL CONT TO SHIFT NE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL S/W PUSHING
OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT. SKIES CLEARED ENOUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MTNS TO ALLOW DECENT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP.

STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND DECENT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD ALLOW SOME
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORMING UP OVER
CENTRAL KY TO MAKE PASSAGE AS ANOTHER QLCS IN A SIMILAR FASHION
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS SYSTEM...ALBEIT IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. KEPT
HIGHER POPS...WITH A GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN POPS TOWARDS THE MORNING
HOURS. GENERALLY USED RAW VALUES FROM CONSENSUS MOS TO POPULATE
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TAKING THE LAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES
WITH IT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN A
STRONG RECOVERY IN AN OVERHAUL TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BUILDING RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE
EASED UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON THE 500MB HEIGHTS. STILL LOOKING AT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM. WILL SEE A WARM
FRONT SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THE
SURFACE FLOW VEERING SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A MID TO LATE SUMMER TYPE PATTERN THAN LATE SPRING.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WENT WITH CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...WHICH ALSO GENERALLY FOLLOWS
THE HPC THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN HOT DAYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  STILL NOT TOTALLY SURE THAT A FEW AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS STORMS MIGHT NOT DEVELOP.  BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS BELOW 20
PERCENT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.  CONTINUED
EARLIER FORECAST TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT.

ON THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.  WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE AREA DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
APPROACHING FRONT BRINING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD SITES IN A MAINLY SW TO NORTHEAST FASHION WITH
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING TIMING/COVERAGE OF STORMS
BECOMES TRICKIER WITH TIME AS IT HEAVILY DEPENDS ON MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD...WEAKENING FRONT TO
MAKE PASSAGE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. CIGS AND
VISBY MAY BE LOWER THAN FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-271815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
202 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-271815-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
202 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

WVZ030>032-039-040-262000-
BARBOUR WV-HARRISON WV-LEWIS WV-TAYLOR WV-UPSHUR WV-
308 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEWIS...NORTHWESTERN
BARBOUR...NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES...

AT 305 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF
WESTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HORNER AROUND 315 PM...LORENTZ AROUND 330
PM...ROSEMONT AROUND 345 PM AND TYGART LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 400 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
86 AND 126.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3881 8045 3882 8048 3883 8047 3886 8053
      3886 8054 3889 8060 3936 8022 3929 7994

30