Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN THURSDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. WELCOME HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY TO START THE WEEKEND DRY. DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES NEAR 700 M2S2
IN THE COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA. STILL DEALING WITH THE RAIN
SHIELD...BUT WITH DYNAMICS AS STRONG AS THEY ARE...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WRITE ITS OWN TICKET. EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...AND THE TORNADO
WATCH ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS...HAVE CONCERNS FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH OHIO...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. NAM SHOWING PRESSURE RISES OF 5MB OR MORE IN
3 HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS.
WILL BE ASSESSING THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE TO ATTACH TO NAM12 SUGGESTION OF
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE PERIOD RIGHT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THU NT.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT SHIFTS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY TO THE E COAST THROUGH FRI.  IT ACTUALLY BECOMES NEARLY
UNSTABLE IN A NARROW AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN
RESPONSE TO THE COOLING ALOFT.

ONCE THAT LAST FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...THE WEATHER BREAKS FOR A
WELCOME REPRIEVE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING LATE FRI AND FRI
NT.  ADDED SOME CLOUD FOR THE MOUNTAINS FRI FOR CU IN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

AFTER A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IN LIGHT S FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SLOWLY EXITING HIGH...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SAT NT IN THE
FORM OF WARM ADVECTION.  SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...THE LATTER MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN.

THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER...AND
LIKED THE LOWER MAV AS OPPOSED TO THE MET FOR HIGHS FRI...WHICH WAS
ALSO MADE FOR GOOD CONTINUITY.  LOWER 80S OFF THE MEX SEEMED HIGH
SAT GIVEN JUST 9 OR 10C AT H85.  MADE MINOR CHANGES ONLY TO LOWS THU
NT AND FRI NT...BUT LOWERED SAT NT A BIT WITH SLOWER ONSET OF NEXT
SYSTEM.  CONSENSUS MOS WITH EXTRA WEIGHT FOR MAV SEEMED TO DO THE
TRICK IN MOST CASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS. REGION WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR.  A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN BY WEDNESDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION HANGING ON BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONLY MAJOR CHANGES ARE FOR POPS LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN...FELT POPS WOULD BE LOWER AND FORECAST
WAS CHANGED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST. THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.

STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...WITH CONVECTION...OBSERVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BOUNCE WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS AS
WELL...POSSIBLY PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS.

TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO WILL
BE WATCHING CONVECTION CLOSELY TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 00Z TO 06Z CONTINUE TO DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  SO TIMING THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 04/28/11
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    H    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>007.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
946 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-290200-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
946 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 239 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-290200-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
946 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 239 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1149 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BABCOCK STATE PARK      37.99N  80.97W
04/27/2011                   FAYETTE            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON RTE 41

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100557

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1200 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKINS                  38.94N 79.83W
04/27/2011                   RANDOLPH           WV   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1202 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SE SOPHIA               37.71N  81.26W
04/27/2011                   RALEIGH            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100558

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1204 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SE BRADLEY              37.86N  81.20W
04/27/2011                   RALEIGH            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100559

TAX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1214 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-
033>037-280715-
BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BUCHANAN VA-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DICKENSON VA-
FAYETTE WV-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-JACKSON WV-JACKSON OH-KANAWHA WV-
LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-LOGAN WV-MASON WV-MCDOWELL WV-
MEIGS OH-MINGO WV-NICHOLAS WV-PUTNAM WV-RALEIGH WV-ROANE WV-VINTON OH-
WAYNE WV-WYOMING WV-
1214 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT
BOONE...BOYD...BUCHANAN...CABELL...CARTER...FAYETTE...GALLIA...
GREENUP...JACKSON...KANAWHA...LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...LOGAN...MASON...
MCDOWELL ...MINGO...DICKENSON...PUTNAM...RALEIGH...SOUTHERN
JACKSON...SOUTHERN ROANE...SOUTHERN VINTON...SOUTHWESTERN
CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN MEIGS...SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS...WAYNE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 1206 AM EDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.

THE RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE
DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3727 8236 3754 8198 3767 8229 3795 8252
      3788 8263 3797 8285 3843 8318 3873 8300
      3876 8289 3860 8275 3884 8266 3901 8281
      3921 8270 3913 8223 3810 8070 3809 8088
      3807 8080 3772 8093 3727 8142 3703 8220

21

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