Alert archive / Ohio / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

April 25, 2011Perry County, Ohio

NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Apr 25, 2011, 4:10 PM EDT for Perry County, Ohio. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 25, 2011, 4:10 PM EDT (20:10 UTC)
Expired: Apr 25, 2011, 4:45 PM EDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Charleston, WV

County Perry County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 104 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 209 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 25, 3:40 PM EDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 25, 3:40 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR MASS INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL THINKING SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT. COULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
FIRST...BEFORE ANY REMAINS...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX LIFTS THROUGH SE OHIO
AROUND 21Z.  VERY LITTLE MID LEVEL SUPPORT FURTHER E AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

TIMING THE HOURLY POPS VERY DIFFICULT.

COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT OUR CENTRAL WV COUNTIES...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD CAUSE
SOME FOG IN THE SHELTERED WV VALLEYS....WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THICK
FOG YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD...BUT EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS REMAINS IN
DOUBT.  FOR INSTANCE...NAM FOCUSES HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT...AIDED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEPS THE STRONGER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEST OF CWA.  THIS LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.

HAVE EARLY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH VORT MAX
DEPARTING OUT OF CWA...AND THEN HAVE LIKELY REDEVELOPING WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER FOLLOWING THE GFS/ECMWF IDEA.  SEVERE CHANCES MAY LINGER
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO INTO THE EVENING...WITH DECENTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THREAT.  CANNOT GO TOTALLY
DRY AT ANY TIME...GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES.

WEDNESDAY PRESENT MORE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING
NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z
THURSDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY.  THIS IS THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
FINALLY KICK THE PERSISTENT FRONT EAST OF THE CWA.  KEPT HIGHER POPS
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER ONCE AGAIN DURING MOST OF WEDNESDAY IN THE
MORE PWAT-LADEN AIRMASS.  KEEP IDEA OF SWINGING CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING...STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
RELATIVELY UNTAPPED MOIST AIRMASS. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT.  60-70 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY H850 FLOW
WILL BE PART OF DECENT WIND TURNING IN LOWER/MID LEVELS WHICH COULD
SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS.  BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION ARRIVES FIRST.  FROPA OCCURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CWA WIDE.  H500 TROUGH THEN OVERSPREADS AREA WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS.  MODEST WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL KEEP
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MAV TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GEFS MEAN...ECMWF...AND ECMWF MEAN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...ELIMINATED THE ECMWF DUE
TO IT BEING MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THIS LEADS TO A COLD WRAP AROUND
SITUATION ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...YIELDED FOG IN SEVERAL VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE 12Z-13Z.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...BUT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/BRIEF IFR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO SKIM A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PLACEMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY
RELATIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORMS BOTH
DAYS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RLX 88D REMAINS DOWN FOR HARDWARE REPAIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/RPY
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB

EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 25, 3:30 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-261930-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
330 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

ALSO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GROUND STILL WET FROM PRIOR
RAINFALL...REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL AREA COULD CAUSE
HIGH WATER PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 25, 2:55 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

VAZ003-004-251945-
BUCHANAN VA-DICKENSON VA-
255 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DICKENSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CLINTWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR TRAMMEL AROUND 300 PM...NORA AROUND 310 PM...
CLINCHCO AROUND 320 PM...HAYSI AROUND 330 PM AND BREAKS INTERSTATE
PARK AROUND 340 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3704 8248 3729 8233 3733 8228 3714 8193
      3712 8196 3712 8200 3708 8202 3703 8209
      3704 8210 3703 8218 3699 8224 3699 8229
      3695 8236

09

Local storm report, Apr 25, 3:54 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

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Local storm report, Apr 25, 4:05 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
405 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIMBALL                 37.43N  81.51W
04/25/2011                   MCDOWELL           WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN KIMBALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100533

JEE

Local storm report, Apr 25, 4:06 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
406 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KEYSTONE                37.41N  81.45W
04/25/2011                   MCDOWELL           WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN KEYSTONE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100534

JEE

Local storm report, Apr 25, 4:07 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
407 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE WAR                37.28N  81.65W
04/25/2011                   MCDOWELL           WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN NEAR BERWIND MOUNTAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100535

JEE

Special weather statement, Apr 25, 4:10 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

OHZ066-067-252045-
MORGAN OH-PERRY OH-
410 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND PERRY
COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOGAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NEW STRAITSVILLE AROUND 415 PM...JUNCTION
CITY AROUND 420 PM...NEW LEXINGTON AROUND 425 PM...PERRY STATE FOREST
AROUND 430 PM AND CROOKSVILLE AROUND 435 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3983 8216 3982 8208 3978 8207 3977 8188
      3955 8225 3956 8227 3959 8227 3959 8235
      3960 8239 3972 8238 3987 8217

10

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 24, 8:04 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Roane	26 min
Apr 24, 8:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Webster	35 min
Apr 24, 8:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Pocahontas, Randolph, Webster	33 min
Apr 24, 8:17 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RLX	Pocahontas, Randolph, Webster	28 min
Apr 24, 8:41 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	RLX	Pocahontas, Randolph	29 min
Apr 24, 10:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Randolph, Upshur	40 min
Apr 24, 10:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Barbour, Pocahontas, Randolph, Upshur	36 min
Apr 25, 3:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	McDowell, Wyoming	27 min
Apr 25, 3:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Logan, McDowell, Mingo, Wyoming	47 min
Apr 25, 4:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Boone, Fayette, Kanawha, Raleigh, Wyoming	40 min
Apr 25, 4:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Fayette	23 min
Apr 25, 5:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Nicholas	34 min
Apr 25, 5:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Pocahontas	25 min
Apr 25, 5:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Pocahontas	28 min
Apr 25, 6:04 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Pocahontas	26 min
Apr 25, 4:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Morgan, Perry	20 min
Apr 25, 5:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Athens	30 min
Apr 25, 2:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RLX	Dickenson	50 min
Apr 25, 4:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RLX	Buchanan, Dickenson	54 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Ohio, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.