Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOR POTENTIAL OF MORE FLOOD PROBLEMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA...AFTER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF EARLIER RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND SOME FLOOD PROBLEMS. THOUGH WE ARE DRYING OUT THIS
EVENING...WE STILL HAVE A FINAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
YET TO COME THROUGH...THAT RUNS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO BE NEARLY AS HEAVY COMPARED
TO EARLIER TODAY...DUE TO SPEED OF ACTIVITY AND WEAKENING SUPPORT AS
IT RUNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS SO
SATURATED...SOME SPOTS WOULD ONLY NEED A HALF INCH OR SO IN AN HOUR
TO PRODUCE MORE FLOOD PROBLEMS. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A NEW FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREA. ALSO...HOCKING RIVER
AND SUNDAY/MONDAY CREEKS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...AS WELL AS WEST FORK IN
WEST VIRGINIA...ARE AROUND BANKFULL AND/OR EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND
FLOOD STAGE JUST FROM THE EARLIER RAINFALL.

SECONDARY PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM LINE WILL BE
RUNNING INCREASINGLY OUT AWAY FROM ITS SUPPORT...SOUTHWESTERLY
850MB WINDS WILL BE COOKING AT 50-65 KNOTS AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
LINE COMES THROUGH. ANY CONVECTION THAT LASTS LONG ENOUGH TO
PENETRATE INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS. THAT BEING SAID...AM EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO BE
DIMINISHING AS IT CARRIES THROUGH. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW
CONVECTION ALONG ACTUAL COLD FRONT /WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY LAGS INITIAL
LINE/ MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY ONWARD...BUT BETTER THREAT
FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE WITH THE FIRST BATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGH
REMAINING NEAR LAKE ERIE...THURSDAY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY. NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT DID NOT BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE
FORECAST UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE FRONT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE TO MICHIGAN BY
SATURDAY...BUT MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED BACK INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO MISSOURI.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY WASH
OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECTING WEAKENING PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO CROSS CWA BETWEEN 07Z
AND 14Z OR SO.  A PERIOD OF IFR OR EVEN BRIEF LIFR IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED IFR IN TEMPOS FOR AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF A CRW/CKB LINE. BEHIND THIS LINE...THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE.  WEATHER CALMS DOWN AFTER 00Z BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DISSIPATE
A BIT AS IT RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
LOSS OF SUPPORT...BEFORE NEW ACTIVITY FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH. SO THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE GAP OVER A PORTION OF THE
AREA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/20/11
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED POSSIBLE IFR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-031-
     032-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1024 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ027-028-030-033>039-046-047-210230-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-CLAY-BRAXTON-LEWIS-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1024 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-019-020-031-032-040-210230-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
1024 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>018-024>026-029-210230-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-GILMER-
1024 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     FLOOD            4 SE BRIDGEPORT         39.25N  80.21W
04/19/2011                   HARRISON           WV   PUBLIC

            STANDING WATER ON ORAL LAKE ROAD NEAR BRIDGEPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100462

JEE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-009-200715-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
WOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...GREENUP...GRAYSON...
OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...NEW LEXINGTON...CROOKSVILLE...
SOMERSET...MCCONNELSVILLE...STOCKPORT...ATHENS...MARIETTA...
BELPRE...JACKSON...WELLSTON...OAK HILL...MCARTHUR...HAMDEN...
POMEROY...GALLIPOLIS...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT...KENOVA...CEREDO...
WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...POINT PLEASANT...NEW HAVEN...PARKERSBURG...
VIENNA
215 AM EDT WED APR 20 2011

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RACING ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY.

BETWEEN 3 AND 4 O'CLOCK...THE LEADING EDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER
COUNTIES OF WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

DUE TO THE FAST FLOW...BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING SHOWERS...IF WOULD NOT EVEN HAVE TO
ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

DUE TO THE WET GROUND...THESE WINDS COULD EASILY CAUSE SOME TREES
TO FALL...RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES.

IF ANY PARTICULAR STORM PULSES STRONGER...BRIEF SEVERE WARNINGS
WOULD BE POSTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

KTB

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