Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
952 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLETHORA OF SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY AND GOOD DYNAMICS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THE FRONT IS NOW SINKING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...WITH DRIER AIRMASS BACK A BIT FURTHER IN NORTHERN OHIO.
MOST RAINFALL HAS EXITED CWA...WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.

AFTER A QUIET FEW HOURS...HAVE POPS RAMPING UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS H500 SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS CWA.  UPSLOPE SETUP OCCURS BY 12Z
WITH NW FLOW BEHIND SHORTWAVE.  SNOW MAY MIX IN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH WARM
GROUND AND MARGINAL H850 TEMPS UNTIL LATER ON THURSDAY.  MIN TEMPS
IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPSLOPE COLD ADVECTION FLOW TO OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...ALONG WITH DRY ADVECTION.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN FRI.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND...UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK
ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS S OF THE AREA...UNDER THE RATHER
FLAT FLOW S OF THE OMEGA BLOCK...ACROSS TN AND NC...OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAISED POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE S...SAT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART...THE GFS REPRESENTING THE WARMER SOLN WITH THE MORE NWD
TRACK. USED THE NAM12 FOR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALSO USED THE NAM12 FOR QPF...WITH AMOUNTS OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS PER 6 HOURS.

HAVE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
FRI NT INTO SAT BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL ENOUGH SO THAT
LATE MARCH INSOLATION WILL ACTUALLY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. DID GET A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW IN A STRIP ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...SE OHIO THROUGH N-CENTRAL WV AND THE NORTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY LATE FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING...IF IT INDEED DOES
SNOW. SO THIS IS A CONDITIONAL FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...JUST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELIEST TO BEGIN WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH HIGHLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY...DECIDING TO SHIFT STAFF
FOCUS TO NEAR TERM CONVECTION. FOR THE EXTENDED...CHOSE TO ROLL WITH
HPC THINKING AND BLEND SOME ELEMENTS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO HAVE
SOME CONTINUITY. SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STAYING MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH...BUT DID EXTEND CHC POPS TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS
SOLN. THIS THINKING WOULD PUT AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CAA THROUGH EARLY DAY
6 WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AT THIS TIME.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND IS CROSSING
MOUNTAINS.  ONCE STORMS MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.  WINDS WILL ALSO SLACKEN.
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD THEN MOVE IN LATE AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING BACK TOWARDS VFR.  SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ALSO EXPECTED...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 03/24/11
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    L    H    L    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    L    H    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...CL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013-014-016>020-
029>032-242300-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-
656 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ015-024>028-033>040-046-047-242300-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
656 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
828 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEFFREY                 37.97N  81.82W
03/23/2011                   BOONE              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON RT 17. ALSO IN CLOTHIER AND BOB WHITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100370

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
834 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JEFFREY                 37.97N  81.82W
03/23/2011                   BOONE              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON RT 17. ALSO IN CLOTHIER AND BOB WHITE.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100370

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
845 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW MCGEE             39.36N  80.17W
03/23/2011                   TAYLOR             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TRAILER BLOWN OFF FOUNDATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100371

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
850 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW MCGEE             39.36N  80.17W
03/23/2011                   TAYLOR             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TRAILER BLOWN OFF FOUNDATION. COMMUNITY OF HEBZIBAH

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100371

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
905 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E HURLEY                37.42N  82.02W
03/23/2011                   BUCHANAN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100372

JFD

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