Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
917 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINS IN THE AREA
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MESO NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FEATURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. WILL UPDATE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE START OF THIS
TIME FRAME.  ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS NE FROM SW OHIO AT
00Z TO NRN WV BEFORE 06Z WEDNESDAY.  INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND HAVE THE CHANCE POPS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...NEAR AND JUST S OF THE FRONT.

WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAIN AMOUNTS...OVER THIS WETTER AREA.

HAVE POPS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER ON THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
FAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  THERE MAY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT.  THEN A SECONDARY BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WITH
THE FAST FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS.  HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER MIXTURE
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 40 DEGREES OR COLDER...WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY
GOING INTO WEEKEND. APPEARS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE
EASTWARD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY WILL BE WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE. WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON
POSITION...ELECTED TO STAY CLOSE TO HPC FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD
PLACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CWA...WITH MORE OF A STRATIFORM PCPN TYPE
EVENT. WITH THIS SOLUTION COULD SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS SE OH
INTO NORTHERN MTNS WITH A CHILLY RAIN DOWN THRU THE LOWLANDS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE MODELS PLACE AREA IN WARM SECTOR
WITH BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF CWA. HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS
DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. AS NOTED...STAYING
CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION WARRANTS LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION FORMING NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    L    M    L    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-222030-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
425 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
850 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

OHZ085-WVZ008-009-016>018-029-220130-
CALHOUN WV-GILMER WV-JACKSON WV-MEIGS OH-ROANE WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
850 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALHOUN...NORTH CENTRAL ROANE...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN MEIGS...SOUTHERN WOOD...WEST
CENTRAL GILMER AND WIRT COUNTIES...

AT 847 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COOLVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MORRISTOWN AROUND 900 PM...PALESTINE AROUND
910 PM...ANNAMORIAH AROUND 920 PM AND MOUNT ZION AROUND 930 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
155 AND 170 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3909 8126 3906 8127 3903 8124 3905 8122
      3905 8113 3901 8107 3902 8106 3895 8087
      3872 8112 3914 8185 3918 8181 3918 8176
      3923 8169 3925 8169

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
853 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

WVZ008-015-016-018-027-028-037-220200-
BRAXTON WV-CALHOUN WV-CLAY WV-JACKSON WV-KANAWHA WV-NICHOLAS WV-
ROANE WV-
853 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL NICHOLAS...
NORTHEASTERN KANAWHA...NORTHERN CLAY...ROANE...SOUTHERN BRAXTON...
SOUTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 852 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 5 MILES
EAST OF SPENCER TO 7 MILES WEST OF SPENCER TO RIPLEY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY
IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...
MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ARNOLDSBURG AROUND 900 PM...ROSEDALE AROUND
910 PM...WILSIE AROUND 920 PM...GASSAWAY AROUND 930 PM AND STRANGE
CREEK AROUND 940 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-77 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 124 AND 139 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14
AND 62.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3855 8063 3852 8071 3840 8133 3878 8184
      3882 8186 3887 8156 3886 8124 3879 8105
      3876 8104 3876 8100 3872 8099 3875 8094
      3860 8056

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
906 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             RIPLEY                  38.81N 81.69W
03/21/2011  U0.50 INCH       JACKSON            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
913 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             RIPLEY                  38.81N 81.69W
03/21/2011  U1.00 INCH       JACKSON            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
959 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             SPENCER                 38.79N 81.31W
03/21/2011  U0.50 INCH       ROANE              WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
959 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

WVZ016-018-027-028-037-038-220300-
BRAXTON WV-CALHOUN WV-CLAY WV-NICHOLAS WV-ROANE WV-WEBSTER WV-
959 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLAY...NORTHERN NICHOLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN ROANE...SOUTHWESTERN BRAXTON AND
WEST CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 957 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 14 MILES
SOUTH OF GRANTSVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER TO 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SPENCER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY
IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...
MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR FRAMETOWN AROUND 1015 PM...LITTLE BIRCH
AROUND 1030 PM AND UPPER GLADE AROUND 1045 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
29 AND 58.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3832 8054 3828 8091 3872 8138 3873 8120
      3876 8102 3875 8100 3872 8099 3873 8096
      3837 8032

30