Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINS IN THE AREA
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WAS JUST SE OF THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S
OF THE FRONT...STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW...GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE ALONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC RIDGE/THETA E AXIS THAN ALONG ORIENTATION OF UPPER
S/W TROF.

WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION...SLOW INCREASING TREND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EVEN AS S/W TROF PASSES THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT SINKS
SWD INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY THE NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE
OF THE EXITING S/W TROF.  SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
/USED MET/MAV/LAV BLEND/ WITH MODERATE CAPE - 7-9 KJ/KG...AS MID
LEVEL CAP ERODES ONCE S/W GOES BY.  MEAN FLOW IS 40 KTS FROM THE WNW.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH VENTING
ALOFT PER SHORT WAVE GETTING THEM GOING AT THIS TIME AND THEN
DESTABILIZATION VIA HEATING AND LOSS OF MIDLEVEL CAP.  SLOWED THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE AXIS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE.  THE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY S OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS
IN THE ABSENCE OF HEATING AND FORCING.

THE FRONT STALLS TUE MORNING AND THEN MAY START SLOWLY MOVING N TUE
AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF
WARM FRONT ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA E FEED.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND ON TEMPERATURES TO ARRIVE AT A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ILLUSTRATED BY THE NAM12
COMPARED WITH THAT OUT OF THE GFS40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE START OF THIS
TIME FRAME.  ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM LIFTS NE FROM SW OHIO AT
00Z TO NRN WV BEFORE 06Z WEDNESDAY.  INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND HAVE THE CHANCE POPS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...NEAR AND JUST S OF THE FRONT.

WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAIN AMOUNTS...OVER THIS WETTER AREA.

HAVE POPS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER ON THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
FAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT.  THERE MAY BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT.  THEN A SECONDARY BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WITH
THE FAST FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS.  HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER MIXTURE
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 40 DEGREES OR COLDER...WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY
GOING INTO WEEKEND. APPEARS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP AND RIDE
EASTWARD ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND.
KEY WILL BE WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE. WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON
POSITION...ELECTED TO STAY CLOSE TO HPC FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD
PLACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CWA...WITH MORE OF A STRATIFORM PCPN TYPE
EVENT. WITH THIS SOLUTION COULD SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS SE OH
INTO NORTHERN MTNS WITH A CHILLY RAIN DOWN THRU THE LOWLANDS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE MODELS PLACE AREA IN WARM SECTOR
WITH BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF CWA. HIGH BUST POTENTIAL WITH TEMPS
DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. AS NOTED...STAYING
CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION WARRANTS LOWER DAYTIME TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IN GUSTY SW FLOW EXCEPT MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.   THE AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS...STRETCHING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WV...WILL SLOWLY SAG S...REACHING THE
HTS-CRW CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 21Z.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT...PERHAPS NOT ALTOGETHER...AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SWD INTO WV.  THAT FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE HTS-CRW
CORRIDOR FIRST THING TUE MORNING...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THERE N AT THAT TIME.  THE FRONT...AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N THROUGH
WV DURING THE DAY ON TUE.

MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW TONIGHT AND THEN
BACK TO W AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY ON TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEIGHT OF CLOUDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    L    M    L    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1122 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-221530-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1122 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
348 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             CROOKSVILLE             39.77N  82.09W
03/21/2011  E0.75 INCH       PERRY              OH   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100327

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
402 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             LOST CREEK              39.16N 80.35W
03/21/2011  U0.75 INCH       HARRISON           WV   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            328 PM 03/21/2011 AND 343 PM 03/21/2011

0349 PM     HAIL             WEST UNION              39.24N 80.81W
03/21/2011  U0.88 INCH       DODDRIDGE          WV   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            334 PM 03/21/2011 AND 349 PM 03/21/2011

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
404 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

WVZ031-032-040-212030-
BARBOUR WV-HARRISON WV-TAYLOR WV-
404 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BARBOUR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 403 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
CLARKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GALLOWAY AROUND 420 PM AND MOATSVILLE AROUND
430 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
110 AND 117.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3925 7994 3906 7999 3917 8043 3926 8040

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
408 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             WEST UNION              39.24N 80.81W
03/21/2011  U0.75 INCH       DODDRIDGE          WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
411 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             WEST UNION              39.30N  80.78W
03/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       DODDRIDGE          WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100328

ARB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
419 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

OHZ075-076-085-212100-
ATHENS OH-MEIGS OH-WASHINGTON OH-
419 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MEIGS...SOUTHERN
ATHENS AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 417 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR COOLVILLE AROUND 450 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3931 8169 3921 8172 3919 8174 3918 8176
      3914 8175 3910 8176 3924 8226 3930 8227
      3935 8225

30