Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Charleston, WV

667 
WWUS51 KRLX 042350
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

WVC007-015-021-067-050000-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110405T0015Z/
NICHOLAS WV-GILMER WV-CLAY WV-BRAXTON WV-
750 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BRAXTON...EASTERN CLAY...
EASTERN GILMER AND NORTHERN NICHOLAS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3892 7938 3893 7945 3889 7951 3879 7950
      3866 7959 3868 7974 3874 7978 3853 7989
      3838 8064 3855 8063 3874 8045 3886 8051
      3924 8037 3937 7989 3930 7989 3924 7981
      3913 7983 3904 7977 3897 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 253DEG 62KT 3931 7997 3843 8038

$$

WVC001-033-041-083-091-097-101-050015-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110405T0015Z/
LEWIS WV-HARRISON WV-RANDOLPH WV-BARBOUR WV-TAYLOR WV-WEBSTER WV-
UPSHUR WV-
750 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR UPSHUR...WEBSTER...TAYLOR...BARBOUR...RANDOLPH...SOUTHERN
HARRISON AND EASTERN LEWIS COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TYGART LAKE STATE PARK TO COWEN...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRAFTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEBSTER
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
THORNTON...MOATSVILLE...AUDRA STATE PARK...BERGOO...HELVETIA...
ELLAMORE...PICKENS...WANETA...NESTORVILLE...BELINGTON...JUNIOR...
COALTON...MONTERVILLE...MILL CREEK...MONTROSE...HUTTONSVILLE...
KERENS...VALLEY HEAD...ELKINS...DAILEY...BEVERLY...CHEAT BRIDGE...
BOWDEN...GLADY...DRYFORK AND HARMAN

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
97 AND 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3892 7938 3893 7945 3889 7951 3879 7950
      3866 7959 3868 7974 3874 7978 3853 7989
      3838 8064 3855 8063 3874 8045 3886 8051
      3924 8037 3937 7989 3930 7989 3924 7981
      3913 7983 3904 7977 3897 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 253DEG 62KT 3931 7997 3843 8038

$$

12

165 
WWUS51 KRLX 050013
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
813 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

WVC001-033-041-083-091-097-101-050023-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110405T0015Z/
LEWIS WV-HARRISON WV-RANDOLPH WV-BARBOUR WV-TAYLOR WV-WEBSTER WV-
UPSHUR WV-
813 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR UPSHUR...WEBSTER...TAYLOR...
BARBOUR...RANDOLPH...SOUTHERN HARRISON AND EASTERN LEWIS COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM EDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM WHICH
PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHER
STORMS IN THE AREA COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3892 7938 3893 7945 3889 7951 3879 7950
      3866 7959 3868 7974 3874 7978 3853 7989
      3838 8064 3855 8063 3874 8045 3886 8051
      3924 8037 3937 7989 3930 7989 3924 7981
      3913 7983 3904 7977 3897 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 253DEG 62KT 3942 7948 3855 7990

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG EARLY SPRING COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY...BUT WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL A VOLATILE SITUATION AT 1730Z.  HOPING THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION
IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TAKES SOME OF THE STRENGTH OUT OF THE
CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA.  OUT AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION...THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
CREEP HIGHER.

STILL LIKE BEGINNING THE POPS/RAIN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. CELL
MOVEMENT AT 60 KNOTS OR HIGHER.  THE LEADING CONVECTION SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO MORE MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...
AND BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IN TERMS OF THE RAW SYNOPTIC FLOW.  GUSTS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE
BEEN REACHING AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH TODAY.  SO HAPPY WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED BRUSH FIRES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.  STILL
PICTURE THOSE WINDS DECREASING ONCE THE RAIN COOLS THE SURFACE
LAYER. HOWEVER...THESE SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE
FRONT AND FOR A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE.  GUSTS PROBABLY BELOW 40
KNOTS...BUT NO REASON TO CANCEL OUR WIND ADVISORY NOW.

AND IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH HAPPENING...WE CAN NOT FORGET ABOUT THE
WATER.  OF COURSE...STREET FLOODING WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN. WOULD TAKE
A LONG TRAINING OF SHOWERS...BUT IF RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES
START INCREASING...SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE.
LUCKILY...OUR WESTERN LOWLAND COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ARE
INITIALLY DRIER THAN OUR MOUNTAINS...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL MELTING
THEIR SNOW...MAINLY IN THE CHEAT BASIN.

STILL TIMING THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING NEAR OHIO RIVER 00Z TO 02Z
AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z. SHARP COOLING WITH SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS BY DAWN TUESDAY.

TRIED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP THIS EVENING...AFTER THE INITIAL
COOLING FROM THE RAIN.  THEN HAVE HOURLY TEMPERATURES DROPPING AFTER
AFTER 06Z TO 08Z.  ALSO HELD TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY 12Z TO 14Z
TUESDAY...BEFORE TRYING TO RECOVER.  THE AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLEARING
SHOULD HELP OUR SW COUNTIES TO RECOVER AOA 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD TUESDAY NIGHT...LETTING
THE AREA DRY OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. A VORT MAX PASSES TO OUR
NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VORT MAX WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAK DOWN INTO THE CWA RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND LOW
70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ELONGATED FRONT TO CUT ACROSS THE UPPER TIER OF THE US
INTO THE WEEKEND. FRONT TO SLIDE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS A
MIDWESTERN CYCLONE SPINS UP TO START THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT..THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WAVE TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FRONT
REMAINING INVOF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HPC NOTED UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...AND USING
MAINLY ENSEMBLE FCST WITH PERSISTENCE IN MIND. THUS HAVE RELIED
PRIMARILY ON HPC GUIDANCE. MADE A FEW MINOR POP AND TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING 19Z TO 23Z...AND CONVECTION OVERSPREAD FROM
SW TO NE.  CEILINGS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN/OVC AND VSBY 3 TO
5 MILES IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.  WIND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS
COMMON OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION IN WARM SECTOR.  STRONG BUT MORE
LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE GUSTS 20Z TO 00Z TUESDAY.

STILL HAVE COLD FRONT NEARING KHTS AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN PAST
KCRW-KCKB AROUND 03Z TO 05Z...THEN CROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z.

CEILINGS LOWERING AS THE COOLER AIR SATURATES THE LOWER LEVELS.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN/OVC AND VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS 06Z TO 15Z...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 3000 FEET.  OVER HIGH MOUNTAINS...CEILINGS AOB
LOWERING TO 1 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES FOR 08Z TO 15Z.

CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE 15Z TO 18Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LOWLANDS. HAVE CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY ABOVE 5  MILES
FOR LOWLAND BY 18Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOW LOW DOES THE CEILING AND VSBY GO DOWN IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    L    M    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
LINGERING IFR OVER HIGH WV MOUNTAINS VCNTY KEKN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
|* ADD DISCUSSION HERE. *|

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/KMC/JEE
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JEE
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB

HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>019-024>026-033-034-046-052330-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-POCAHONTAS-
716 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ020-027>032-035>040-047-052330-
DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-RANDOLPH-
716 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
639 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENVILLE               38.94N  80.83W
04/04/2011                   GILMER             WV   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100377

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
645 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHARLESTON              38.35N  81.63W
04/04/2011  E60 MPH          KANAWHA            WV   NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100378

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
647 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLESTON              38.35N  81.63W
04/04/2011                   KANAWHA            WV   NWS OFFICE

            TREE DOWN AT RLX

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100379

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
658 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             HAMLIN                  38.28N 82.10W
04/04/2011  U0.50 INCH       LINCOLN            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
707 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH CHARLESTON        38.36N  81.71W
04/04/2011                   KANAWHA            WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN LITTLE CREEK PARK...FOOT IN
            DIAMETER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100380

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
711 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISA                  38.11N  82.60W
04/04/2011                   LAWRENCE           KY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100381

TAX