Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Charleston, WV

527 
WWUS51 KRLX 232232
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
632 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

WVC015-232241-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110323T2300Z/
CLAY WV-
632 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 NEAR MILE MARKER 44.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3852 7966 3850 7969 3843 7968 3831 7980
      3828 7978 3819 7990 3806 7996 3804 8027
      3811 8037 3823 8037 3826 8043 3809 8069
      3812 8088 3823 8099 3826 8119 3842 8090
      3875 8039 3865 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 268DEG 38KT 3876 8027 3852 8057
          3828 8074

$$

WVC007-067-075-083-097-101-232300-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110323T2300Z/
POCAHONTAS WV-WEBSTER WV-BRAXTON WV-UPSHUR WV-RANDOLPH WV-NICHOLAS WV-
632 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR NICHOLAS...SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAXTON...WEBSTER AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...

AT 627 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDEN TO ERBACON TO
CANVAS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTH OF BUCKHANNON
TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUTTON TO SUMMERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH HAIL 
ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NETTIE...DIANA...CRAIGSVILLE...HOLLY RIVER STATE PARK...CAMDEN ON
GAULEY...COWEN...HELVETIA...UPPER GLADE...RICHWOOD...PICKENS...
WEBSTER SPRINGS...BERGOO...WANETA...CHEAT BRIDGE...MINGO...
MONTERVILLE...VALLEY HEAD...CRANBERRY MOUNTAIN NATURE CENTER...
ARBOVALE...BUCKEYE...BARTOW...BOYER...SLATY FORK...DUNMORE...EDRAY...
MINNEHAHA SPRINGS...FROST...CASS SCENIC RAILROAD...SNOWSHOE...
MARLINTON...HILLSBORO...GREENBANK...DURBIN AND CASS SCENIC RAILROAD
STATE PARK

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3852 7966 3850 7969 3843 7968 3831 7980
      3828 7978 3819 7990 3806 7996 3804 8027
      3811 8037 3823 8037 3826 8043 3809 8069
      3812 8088 3823 8099 3826 8119 3842 8090
      3875 8039 3865 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 268DEG 38KT 3876 8027 3852 8057
          3828 8074

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
ARE THE MAIN ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY
AND SOUTHEAST OH. A SECOND...LARGER LINE...IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AT 18Z...SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS 500 J/KG SOUTH TO 1500 J/KG NORTH
WITH LIS -1C TO -5C. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH 00Z THU...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10K FEET AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE SPEED SHEAR THROUGH EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 0C FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING AROUND 12Z THU. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVE IN. ONLY SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH OUT MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S WEST TO THE 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPSLOPE COLD ADVECTION FLOW TO OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...ALONG WITH DRY ADVECTION.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN FRI.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND...UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK
ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS S OF THE AREA...UNDER THE RATHER
FLAT FLOW S OF THE OMEGA BLOCK...ACROSS TN AND NC...OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAISED POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE S...SAT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART...THE GFS REPRESENTING THE WARMER SOLN WITH THE MORE NWD
TRACK. USED THE NAM12 FOR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALSO USED THE NAM12 FOR QPF...WITH AMOUNTS OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS PER 6 HOURS.

HAVE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
FRI NT INTO SAT BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL ENOUGH SO THAT
LATE MARCH INSOLATION WILL ACTUALLY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. DID GET A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW IN A STRIP ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...SE OHIO THROUGH N-CENTRAL WV AND THE NORTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY LATE FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING...IF IT INDEED DOES
SNOW. SO THIS IS A CONDITIONAL FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...JUST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELIEST TO BEGIN WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH HIGHLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY...DECIDING TO SHIFT STAFF
FOCUS TO NEAR TERM CONVECTION. FOR THE EXTENDED...CHOSE TO ROLL WITH
HPC THINKING AND BLEND SOME ELEMENTS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO HAVE
SOME CONTINUITY. SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STAYING MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH...BUT DID EXTEND CHC POPS TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS
SOLN. THIS THINKING WOULD PUT AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CAA THROUGH EARLY DAY
6 WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH TWO LINES OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCED OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE TAF SITES. HAVE TRIED TO
TIME THE FIRST OF TWO DEVELOPING LINE INTO THE SITES WITH TEMPO
GROUPS. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE. HEAVY RAIN
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND MOVING EAST IN ADVANCED OF THE COLD
FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CONCERN
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IS LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SITES...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. GENERALLY MVFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT EKN AND BKW AFTER 12Z THU.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...JB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-241730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
127 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
524 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E PARKERSBURG           39.26N  81.54W
03/23/2011                   WOOD               WV   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AROUND PARKERSBURG

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100350

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
530 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             PINCH                   38.41N  81.48W
03/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100351

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
534 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PROCTORVILLE            38.44N  82.38W
03/23/2011                   LAWRENCE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55MPH GUST REPORTED...SHEETING FALLING OFF
            HOUSES...BRANCHES OFF TREES...AND SEVERAL TREES FALLING
            DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100352

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
537 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S AID                 38.56N  82.49W
03/23/2011  M70 MPH          LAWRENCE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOWN OF WILLOW WOOD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100353

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
541 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N OAK HILL            38.93N  82.57W
03/23/2011                   JACKSON            OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BARN LIFTED OFF OF GROUND WITH CONCRETE...OUTBUILDING
            PICKED UP AND BLOWN ACROSS STREET...ROOF BLOWN OFF
            HOME...NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100354

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
544 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             MARTHA                  38.00N  82.92W
03/23/2011  E0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100355

JFD