Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Charleston, WV

070 
WWUS51 KRLX 232001
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

OHC009-163-232030-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110323T2030Z/
VINTON OH-ATHENS OH-
401 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ATHENS AND NORTHEASTERN VINTON COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NELSONVILLE...BUCHTEL...THE PLAINS...CHAUNCEY...ATHENS...GLOUSTER...
TRIMBLE AND JACKSONVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3950 8205 3930 8206 3932 8251 3940 8251
      3939 8229 3947 8228 3947 8217 3950 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 272DEG 49KT 3941 8239

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING THEN SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW
ARE THE MAIN ISSUES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY
AND SOUTHEAST OH. A SECOND...LARGER LINE...IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AT 18Z...SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS 500 J/KG SOUTH TO 1500 J/KG NORTH
WITH LIS -1C TO -5C. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET
THROUGH 00Z THU...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 10K FEET AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE SPEED SHEAR THROUGH EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 0C FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING AROUND 12Z THU. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVE IN. ONLY SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. IN THE MOUNTAINS...RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH OUT MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S WEST TO THE 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPSLOPE COLD ADVECTION FLOW TO OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...ALONG WITH DRY ADVECTION.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD DAWN FRI.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND...UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK
ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS S OF THE AREA...UNDER THE RATHER
FLAT FLOW S OF THE OMEGA BLOCK...ACROSS TN AND NC...OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAISED POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE S...SAT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART...THE GFS REPRESENTING THE WARMER SOLN WITH THE MORE NWD
TRACK. USED THE NAM12 FOR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALSO USED THE NAM12 FOR QPF...WITH AMOUNTS OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS PER 6 HOURS.

HAVE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
FRI NT INTO SAT BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE MARGINAL ENOUGH SO THAT
LATE MARCH INSOLATION WILL ACTUALLY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. DID GET A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW IN A STRIP ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA...SE OHIO THROUGH N-CENTRAL WV AND THE NORTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY LATE FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING...IF IT INDEED DOES
SNOW. SO THIS IS A CONDITIONAL FORECAST. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...JUST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELIEST TO BEGIN WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH HIGHLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY...DECIDING TO SHIFT STAFF
FOCUS TO NEAR TERM CONVECTION. FOR THE EXTENDED...CHOSE TO ROLL WITH
HPC THINKING AND BLEND SOME ELEMENTS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO HAVE
SOME CONTINUITY. SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STAYING MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH...BUT DID EXTEND CHC POPS TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS
SOLN. THIS THINKING WOULD PUT AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN
ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER CAA THROUGH EARLY DAY
6 WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH TWO LINES OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCED OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE TAF SITES. HAVE TRIED TO
TIME THE FIRST OF TWO DEVELOPING LINE INTO THE SITES WITH TEMPO
GROUPS. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE. HEAVY RAIN
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND MOVING EAST IN ADVANCED OF THE COLD
FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE STORMS AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE IFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CONCERN
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IS LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SITES...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. GENERALLY MVFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT EKN AND BKW AFTER 12Z THU.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...JB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-241730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
127 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ101>103-OHZ087-WVZ005-231815-
BOYD KY-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE WV-
148 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...EAST CENTRAL CARTER...
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN GREENUP AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE
COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
GRAYSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CATLETTSBURG AROUND 200 PM AND SOUTH POINT
AROUND 210 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 169 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6 IN
WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3861 8242 3844 8238 3841 8249 3836 8242
      3836 8243 3833 8303 3845 8304

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

OHZ086-087-WVZ007-231900-
GALLIA OH-LAWRENCE OH-MASON WV-
220 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MASON...SOUTHERN GALLIA
AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 215 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
COAL GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CROWN CITY AROUND 230 PM...ASHTON AROUND 245
PM AND LEON AROUND 300 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3851 8268 3890 8214 3870 8184 3857 8219
      3858 8221 3860 8227 3858 8229 3853 8230
      3842 8259 3847 8262 3849 8266

30