Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Charleston, WV

180 
WWUS51 KRLX 141943
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

WVC091-141953-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-110914T1945Z/
TAYLOR WV-
343 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TAYLOR COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
345 PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER OTHER WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DIME SIZE HAIL.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3933 8020 3940 8020 3941 8010 3939 8008
      3940 8003 3943 8001 3946 7995 3945 7990
      3943 7989 3930 7989
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 286DEG 33KT 3932 7956

$$

26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL FRONT AT 18Z NEAR MASON DIXON LINE NEAR MGW TO NEAR UNI TO
SDF. INITIAL IMPULSE RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SW PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION LIMITED TO OUR
EXTREME NORTH BEFORE EXITING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR HOURLY DETERMINISTIC POPS FOR MAIN WAVE WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  STILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE WAVE...EXITING THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
BEFORE THE LOW POST FRONTAL CLOUDS LIFT.

KEEPING OUR POPS MOSTLY AOA NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  WAS A BIT SLOWER IN LIFTING THE
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW...NOT UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY.

FIRST NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE I CAN RECALL FOR A WHILE...FOR
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.  TRIED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES DROP
OVER THE LOWLAND THROUGH 15Z OR 16Z...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  TRIED TO HAVE TEMPERATURE RECOVER A FEW DEGREES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES FROM 18Z TO 21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE REALLY COME TOGETHER ON EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM...AS IT
EXITS THURSDAY. THUS I FELT COMFORTABLE GOING CATEGORICAL WITH POPS
IN THE NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS 12Z THURSDAY. WILL HAVE A TOP DOWN DRYING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN TAPERING TO DRIZZLE
AND THEN ENDING AROUND MIDDAY...BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BECAUSE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS...I USED THE
COOLER RAW NAM MODEL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF MET OR MAV
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 40S FOR ALMOST ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IF CLEARING CAN REACH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE
DAWN...UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE /POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES/.

CENTER OF STRONG AND VERY LARGE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FROM THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ONLY IN
THE 550S DECAMETER RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...DESPITE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE LOWLANDS. A
SHORTWAVE ZIPPING THROUGH THE BRISK ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...MAY ATTEMPT
TO SKIM THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/SW VA WITH EXTRA CLOUDS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT THIS IS IFFY AT BEST SO I KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS REALIZED OVER THE CWA. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CREATING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIMITED THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OUR EXTREME NORTH...EXITING INTO
SW PENNSYLVANIA BY 22Z. CEILINGS NEAR 4 THSD WITH LAYERS ABOVE IN
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION PKB-CKB ON NORTH.  SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN
HAZE MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PKB VCNTY DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...CEILING UNLIMITED AND VSBY UNRESTRICTED 18Z TO
NEAR 23Z SUNSET.

CEILINGS AT 5 TO 8 THSD FT BKN TO OVC OVERSPREADING OHIO RIVER
COUNTIES 03Z TO 06Z...REACHING MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 09Z.
SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES REACHING
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES BY 06Z...THEN INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY
12Z.  CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES 15Z TO 18Z.  CLOUDS
LIFTING OVER THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES 15Z TO 18Z TO 2 THSD FT BKN AND
VSBY AOA 5 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS TONIGHT MAY BE
FASTER. TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF POST FRONTAL/WAVE LOW
STRATUS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150600-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
154 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.