Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Charleston, WV

852 
WWUS51 KRLX 031927
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

OHC115-031937-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-110703T1945Z/
MORGAN OH-
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3960 8134 3960 8129 3961 8127 3958 8126
      3958 8115 3939 8121 3939 8127 3950 8160
      3959 8158 3959 8149 3965 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 287DEG 13KT 3955 8153

$$

OHC167-031945-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-110703T1945Z/
WASHINGTON OH-
327 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LOWELL...OR NEAR BEVERLY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MACKSBURG...NEWPORT...LOWER SALEM AND DEVOLA

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
3 AND 17 IN OHIO.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3960 8134 3960 8129 3961 8127 3958 8126
      3958 8115 3939 8121 3939 8127 3950 8160
      3959 8158 3959 8149 3965 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 287DEG 13KT 3955 8153

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERS
IN THE SOUTH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT LAPS DATA SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...WITH
A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THIS IS PRIDING CONVERGENCE...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCEMENT IN THE TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE
FIRST ECHOES OF THE AFTERNOON NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN ILN
TERRITORY...AND EXPECTED SHORTLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
TONIGHT IS THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. IN EFFORTS TO GO
WITH A DETERMINISTIC FORECAST...KEEP THE LIKELIES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
NOT A LOT OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER HERE WITH WATER LOADING IN
A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUNDING AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

THE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMES DIFFICULT TO TRACK INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DO HAVE IT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN GIVEN THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT TRY TO CLEAR THE SKY TO A DEGREE BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXES APPEAR IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY. THESE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FEATURES...AND
NEITHER IS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...BUT HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN H5 HEIGHT SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY 18Z. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS AN ELONGATED VORTICITY FEATURE FROM CENTRAL
KY...NORTHEAST ACROSS WV...CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN PA...THE CMC
AND ECMWF SHOW THIS VORT FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG KY EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. THE NAM IS THE WEAKER OF ALL
MODELS WITH A VERY DIFFUSED VORT FEATURE. BLENDED GFS/CMC
SOLUTIONS...ALLOWING POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER TO EXIT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH DRY AIR COLUMN EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND LACK OF
FORCING...OPTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SETTLE IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FOR
TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...DUE MAINLY TO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SOUTH...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR NORTH FOR TUESDAY.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY PER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL TRY TO BRING ANOTHER BROADER BUT WEAKER H5 TROUGH INTO THE
AREA...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW WITH ADDITIONAL H5 SHORT WAVES ON THURSDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW IN DAY 4 AS MODELS CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON
THESE SYSTEMS.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE NO POPS/WX FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WITH HPC TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGING TAFS TODAY WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TIMING.
DO HAVE TEMPO TSRA CB IN A FEW SITES...MAINLY NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING TIME PERIOD. WITH CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND OR HAIL...GIVEN
THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.

DO HAVE SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION CEASES AND
THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EVAPORATES...SO SOME LATE IFR IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH VALLEY FOG.

ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE...AND THE QUESTION
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MOST VALLEYS DURING PREDAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-040745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
343 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.