Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Charleston, WV

794 
WWUS51 KRLX 222352
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

WVC005-019-039-043-045-081-099-109-230002-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0160.000000T0000Z-110523T0000Z/
RALEIGH WV-LOGAN WV-LINCOLN WV-KANAWHA WV-FAYETTE WV-BOONE WV-
WYOMING WV-WAYNE WV-
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WAYNE...NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING...BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHERN KANAWHA...
LINCOLN...EASTERN LOGAN AND NORTHERN RALEIGH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
800 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...THE WEST VIRGINIA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 90.

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER OTHER WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3819 8249 3832 8175 3814 8129 3781 8106
      3768 8177 3800 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 257DEG 22KT 3824 8190 3809 8154
          3785 8136

$$

30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
600 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING A SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS...WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN SETS UP JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE BEST PART OF DEVELOPING COMPLEX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO CAT SOUTH...AND HIGH CHANCE NORTH THRU 03Z...THEN
DECREASE POPS TO GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE WITH EXITING COMPLEX AND
LOSS OF HEATING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN THIS AIRMASS.
FEEL THAT MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FEATURES CURRENTLY BEARING
DOWN ON THE REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE WANES CONSIDERABLY WITH TIME AS
DIFFERENCES MULTIPLY. THEREFORE...WILL TRY TO BE SPECIFIC
INITIALLY...BUT MORE GENERIC WITH TIME. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WILL GO
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS
WILL PERSIST. ON MONDAY...NAM MOS HIGHS LOOK TOO COOL...BUT MAV MOS
LOOKS TO WARM. WILL RUN A COMPROMISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LAY OUT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING
THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING SE OH. THIS SHOULD CREATE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SE OH...INTO NORTHERN WV...AIDED BY
OCCASIONAL IMPULSES TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUCH WAVE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY SE OH AND NORTHERN WV. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MS AND OH VALLEYS
TUESDAY...INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF OH RVR IN THE CWA.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR SHOULD LIE ACROSS SE OH MONDAY...EXPANDING
INTO WESTERN WV TUESDAY AS FRONT CLOSES IN. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT NORTH INTO GREAT LAKES AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFYING TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CONTINUE TREND OF BLENDING IN MET GUIDANCE AS MAV LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS. LOW TO MID 80S LOOK GOOD OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR RIDGE BUILDING ALONG EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...WILL HELP TO
STIFF ARM EFFECTS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN OH VALLEY. AS
SUCH...MUCH OF THE ACTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF CWA UNTIL PERHAPS LATE
FRIDAY GIVEN CONTINUED TREND OF SLOWING THINGS DOWN. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND REGARDING IF UPR LOW
REMAINS ATTACHED TO WESTERLIES OR GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER OH VALLEY.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH DETAILS OF PAC ENERGY ALONG WITH STRENGTH
OF RIDGE ALONG EAST COAST. TRIED TO STAY CLOSE TO HPC
SOLUTION...KEEPING HIGH CHC POPS THRU WEEKEND. SHOULD UPR RIDGE HOLD
AND BUILD...THEN HPC SOLUTION MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
22Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
THROUGH 03Z...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA MOST...BUT STILL SCATTERED STORMS NORTH. BASICALLY...VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER 03Z...ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST THRU 08Z...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER 08Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING AND IF
CLOUDS BREAK...OTHERWISE ...VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER 12Z...ANY FOG THAT FORMS LIFTS...BUT SCATTERED REMAIN
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW. NEW STORM GENERATION BEHIND THE
MAIN COMPLEX THIS EVENING MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAIN FALLS THIS
EVENING AND IF SKIES CLEAR SOMEWHAT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031-033>038-232200-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS EACH DAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALIZED WATER
PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ032-039-040-046-047-232200-
TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALIZED WATER
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALIZED
WATER PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             LOUISA                  38.11N  82.60W
05/22/2011  E0.50 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100638

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
602 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             1 NE MARTHA             38.01N  82.90W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL OBSERVED

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100639

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 39.05N  82.63W
05/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            OH   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100640

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
653 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             3 SW ULYSSES            37.92N  82.72W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100641

JEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
654 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             ULYSSES                 37.95N  82.68W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100642

JEE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

WVZ005-013-024>026-034-035-222330-
BOONE WV-LINCOLN WV-LOGAN WV-MINGO WV-RALEIGH WV-WAYNE WV-WYOMING WV-
655 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOONE...LINCOLN...LOGAN...NORTH
CENTRAL MINGO...NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING...NORTHWESTERN RALEIGH AND
SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WAYNE TO 3 MILES NORTH OF LOGAN TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOGAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR BRANCHLAND...AND AMHERSTDALE AROUND 700
PM...BLAIR...AND SHARPLES AROUND 705 PM...MYRA AROUND 710 PM...
PALERMO...TURTLE CREEK...JEFFREY...AND SPURLOCKVILLE AROUND 715 PM
AND SWEETLAND AROUND 720 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3827 8202 3827 8199 3829 8194 3821 8182
      3818 8182 3819 8181 3820 8182 3800 8154
      3781 8145 3764 8201 3780 8221 3814 8252

14