Areal Flood Warning 46, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1052 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOOD THREAT ON STREAMS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH RAIN MOVING EASTWARD...WILL REMOVE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH WILL SPELL FOR DRY WX IN SHORT
TERM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS A RESULT...PRETTY MUCH ROLLED WITH
PREV FCST IN SHORT TERM WITH ONGOING ACTIVE WX AND WATER CONCERNS
THE MAIN FOCUS TDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS
LOW...AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF DUE TO
ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS...DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE A CUT OFF LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...AND
SWIRLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH EARLY ON...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF
LOW CONTINUES TO TREK TO THE NORTH...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TOO
EARLY TO PREDICT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE DAYS AHEAD OF ANY SNOWFALL...EXPECTING AT THIS POINT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS. A
STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUST WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    L    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-014>020-
     027>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ007>011-013>020-026>032-037>040-046-
047-231400-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-MASON-JACKSON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THIS HAS RAISEDFLOOD CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN...THE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RISING
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033>036-231400-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THIS MAY RAISE FLOOD CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ005-006-231400-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THIS MAY RAISE FLOOD CONCERNS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN...THE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RISING
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLOOD            8 NW GLENVILLE          39.02N  80.94W
11/22/2011                   GILMER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            BULL FORK ROAD UNDER WATER... AT LEAST ONE HOUSE
            SURROUNDED BY WATER... WATER RESCUE EFFORTS UNDERWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100904

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1026 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLOOD            3 WSW TROY              39.00N  80.81W
11/22/2011                   GILMER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ALICE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ON ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100905

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1028 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLOOD            3 N SHOCK               38.82N  80.97W
11/22/2011                   GILMER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ....CORRECTED FOR TIME.... ROSEDALE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER OVER ROADWAY ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF THE TOWN
            OF SHOCK

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100903

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLOOD            1 NW NEW MILTON         39.24N  80.70W
11/22/2011                   DODDRIDGE          WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ROUTE 23 CLOSED NORTH OF NEW MILTON DUE TO HIGH WATER
            OVER ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100906

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1044 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     FLOOD            9 NE SMITHBURG          39.38N  80.61W
11/22/2011                   DODDRIDGE          WV   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RESCUE ON SKELETON RUN ROAD NEAR SEDALIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100907

TAX