Areal Flood Warning 34, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
827 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED TO EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY
STARTING TO PICK UP STEAM. DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING
EVIDENT...AND SAT IR SHOWING SOME COOLING TOPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIP
BAND INVOF WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OCCASIONAL SLOW TRAINING
OF PRECIP BANDS MAY BECOME A CONCERN. PAINTED INCREASING POPS
TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE COMING IN AT UNDER AN INCH FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV FOR TODAY. MUCH OF THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE BUT STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE FFA THROUGH 12 WEDNESDAY.
FIGURE ON TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP...ONE WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY...AND
THE NEXT WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AHEAD FOR THE COLD FRONTAL
ACTION...AND WITH THE INCREASED FORCING OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WE COULD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL PUT DOWN ENOUGH WATER
TO EXCEED FFG.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CLEAR THE FRONT FOR EASTERN WV BY 12 WED...WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. FORECAST
FOLLOWS GFS TRENDS THE CLOSEST.

FOR TEMPS...MAINLY POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH BC MOS GUIDANCE. THESE
VALUES DID NOT STRAY TO FAR FROM INHERITED FORECAST...AND HAVE SHOWN
DECENT PERFORMANCE FOR PAST FEW RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAKING MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT WILL BE LEFT FOR WEDNESDAY IS A
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND MAINLY UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE END OF
THE DAY. OF SPECIAL NOTE IS THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. ON THE
OTHER HAND...LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MOSTLY LIQUID...EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE THAN DOMINATES
WITH QUITE DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WITH THE LACK OF REALLY COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES
IN THE WEST AS SUNSHINE INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE IN THE
MOUNTAINS TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE
DAY WITH MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MODERATING TREND ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SUNSHINE
RULES...WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY USED HPC THINKING FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONLY REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST ARE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT STARTING TO MOVE LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. HAVE SEEN A
MODEST IMPROVEMENT WITH CIG VSBY VALUES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL
FLIRTING WITH LIFR. SHOULD SEE MINOR IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS WE ENTER
THE WARM SECTOR AND BL IS MIXING OUT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROMT
THE WEST TONIGHT WITH ISOLD CONV FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR ANDE
LIFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP AND FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW AS CLOUDS AND FOG MAY HANG ON TODAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIFTING OF LOWER CEILINGS COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT COULD VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    H    L

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ007>011-013>020-026>032-037>040-046-
047-231400-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-MASON-JACKSON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THIS HAS RAISEDFLOOD CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN...THE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RISING
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033>036-231400-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THIS MAY RAISE FLOOD CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ005-006-231400-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-
851 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THIS MAY RAISE FLOOD CONCERNS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN...THE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RISING
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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