Areal Flood Warning 18, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEST TO EAST FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MORNING...LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY.  COLD FRONT
PASSES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
CONTINUED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM WESTERN OHIO.
THIS THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THINK THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED HEATING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST...BUT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH OF A
FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION.

RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR ONCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BREAK SOMEWHAT.  WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO THE WEST...GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS
UP...50-60KTS AT H850 AFTER 06Z.  INVERSION SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP
THESE WINDS ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART EARLY ON.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO EXPECTED PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH MAY ARRIVE AFTER
08Z.  SPC HAS WESTERN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT SEVERE RISK.  STRONG/MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW POINTS TO DAMAGING WIND RISK...AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AT LEAST...BUT WONDER
IF STORMS CAN ROOT INTO BOUNDARY LAYER THIS FAR EAST AT THIS TIME OF
NIGHT.  NEVERTHELESS...BROUGHT CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST EAST OF OHIO
RIVER BY 12Z AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMER MOS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH GOOD MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STILL WEAKENS AROUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY.  STILL FIGURING ON THE LEFTOVERS FROM THE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHING DEEPER INTO OUR CWA AFTER
12Z.  HOWEVER...THAT IS NOT THE FRONT.  A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FIGURED ON THE FRONT.  BASING THE FORECAST ON THE
FRONT ALONG A CKB-CRW-LOUISA LINE BY 18Z...THEN INTO OUR SW VA
COUNTIES BY 00Z. WITH THIS TIMING...THINK SOME REDEVELOP POSSIBLE
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WAS A BIT FASTER LOWERING POPS AND BRINGING SOME CLEARING INTO OUR
OHIO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT...WAS
ALSO COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS FROM HTS-CRW ON NORTH.  SOME
30S POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND RURAL WEST VIRGINIA.

TRYING TO HOLD POPS DRY ON THURSDAY FOR MOST COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS SNEAKING BACK INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WAS FASTER SPREADING POPS BACK NORTH...WITH WARM FRONTAL ACTION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES. IT ALSO CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY
ON HANDLING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE
PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE NATION...AS SEEN BY MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AGAIN...A BLEND OF THE MODELS IS USED FOR
DETAILS...WHICH MEANS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. CURRENT SCENARIO HAS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TENDING TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT. WARM SECTOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES...AND INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND BRING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN SUMMARY...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  MVFR IN
GENERAL...TO OCCASIONAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH.  BOUNDARY
STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATER TODAY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z OR SO.  CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AT
BEST.  WARM SECTOR TAKES OVER THIS EVENING...WITH VFR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD UNTIL AFTER 09Z...WHEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
RUSHING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AHEAD OF A FRESH COLD FRONT. EXPECT
THAT THE LINE WILL GET EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MAY PRESS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BASED ON INFLUENCES OF
INITIAL WAVE OF RAINFALL IN THE MORNING.  TIMING OF LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT STORMS IS ALSO IN QUESTION.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ007>011-
     016>020-028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...CL/99
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...CL/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>027-033>037-201200-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-083>086-201200-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED INTO WEDNESDAY. IF REPETITIVE
SHOWERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY OVER PREVIOUSLY WET COUNTIES...SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE POSTED.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ076-WVZ007>011-016>020-029>031-201200-
WASHINGTON-MASON-JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED INTO WEDNESDAY. IF REPETITIVE
SHOWERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY OVER PREVIOUSLY WET COUNTIES...SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE POSTED.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ028-032-038>040-046-047-201200-
BRAXTON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-201200-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED INTO WEDNESDAY. IF REPETITIVE
SHOWERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY OVER PREVIOUSLY WET COUNTIES...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...OR SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...MAY BE POSTED.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MONITORED INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
853 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

WVZ028>030-038>040-047-191330-
BARBOUR WV-BRAXTON WV-GILMER WV-LEWIS WV-RANDOLPH WV-UPSHUR
WV-WEBSTER WV-
853 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
WEBSTER...BRAXTON...GILMER...UPSHUR...RANDOLPH...LEWIS AND BARBOUR...

AT 847 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN CHARLESTON
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES WEST OF ROCK CAVE...OR ABOUT
15 MILES NORTHEAST OF SUTTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  AUDRA STATE PARK...BUCKHANNON...ELKINS...ROCK CAVE AND STONEWALL
  JACKSON LAKE STATE PARK

PEA SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NEARS BURNSVILLE LAKE.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

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