Special Weather Statement, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A FIELD OF ACCAS THIS MORNING WAS A FORERUNNER AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT
THIS EVENING. WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PARADING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE FAR
WEST WHERE THE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE -4 AND OVER JOHNSON COUNTY
WHERE THE BEST CAPE GRADIENT WILL BE AS THESE DYNAMICS INTERACT WITH
A WESTERLY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. A CLOSED LOW OVER ALBERTA
MOVING INTO SASK WILL EJECT A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MONDAY. WITH COOLING AT THE SURFACE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND WARMING
ALOFT DUE TO RIDGING AT 700MB...THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE
BUT KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH SCT POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE NE FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DRAW IN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP THE REGIME FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE THE
MODELS BULLS EYE THAT AREA WITH -6 LIFTED INDICES AND A GOOD CAPE
GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL REESTABLISH THAT
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...ADDING TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DRY LINE PROFILE. THIS
MOISTURE PROFILE WILL REMAIN WED WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR POPS
WED/WED EVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...ALBEIT MAINLY
ISOLD TO WDLY SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINNING MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
JOHNSON COUNTY WHERE BYG WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WY WHERE DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL REMAIN AS OPPOSED TO 40S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UNSETTLED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
ZONES. THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THEM. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BULGES NORTHWESTWARD PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION
PER THE GFS MODEL. THE ECMWF IS DRY SATURDAY BUT BRINGS IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEXT SUNDAY...HINTING AT HIGH BASED CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ZONES. HAVE GONE WITH DRY WEATHER BOTH
DAYS FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS...SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT SINCE MOST STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING MONDAY MORNING SERVING
AS A BOUNDARY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  MVFR COULD BRIEFLY PERSIST
NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. EXPECT COOLING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER JOHNSON COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2011

WYZ001>020-022>030-081200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
400 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING CONTINUES
TODAY.  A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD MOVE OFF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND
AFFECT SWEETWATER COUNTY. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HAIL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
DAMAGE. THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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