Special Weather Statement, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
144 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING WORKING INTO THE FAR WEST. THUNDERSTORMS FIRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES ATTM WITH A COUPLE STRONG CELLS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ARE GENERALLY GOING TO STAY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA IN NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO COMBINE WITH 40 TO 50 DEW
POINTS TO PRODUCE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF CONVECTION.
THE FAR WEST...IS A ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED BUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS REMAINING.
IN ADDITION...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET STREAK WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING DYNAMICS BY EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS.
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THEN SUPPRESSES THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME TO
THE SOUTH FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. DID LEAVE IN THE ISOLATED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SWEETWATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE
THE PLUME IS NOT TOTALLY SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF US. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE QUITE STRONG. A TAD COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
THEN IT WILL WARM UP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DRY...BREEZY/WINDY AND VERY WARM WEATHER PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.  MAINLY DRY
WEATHER...LIGHT WIND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE WEST
ON TUESDAY.

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH
AND BOTTOM OUT OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY...AND THEN
LIFT INTO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.  LESS
SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN 00Z TUE MODEL RUNS WITH GFS DETERMINISTIC
REMAINING ON THE SLOW END OF GUIDANCE.  CONSENSUS IS TOWARD THE FAST
END OF GUIDANCE WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. MONSOONAL TAP IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE/LIFT CLIPPING THE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. AFTERWARDS...UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG 130W OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER HIGH/RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES. GFS/GEFS MEAN OFFER THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH
HIGH CENTER OVER CO/NM MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWS BROADER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGH CENTER FURTHER EAST.
FORECAST WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.
THUS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS AND EAST. 130W UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
TUESDAY WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING. GFS ALSO PULLS UP THERMAL RIDGE (20C AT H7...36C
AT H85) ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING TUESDAY...A SCENARIO THAT WOULD
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HEAT WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS.

AVIATION...
A PROMINENT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SWEETWATER COUNTY INCLUDING KRKS...THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN
INCLUDING KPNA AS WELL AS THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS...THE SALT AND
WYOMING RANGES AND THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL RESULTING IN LOCAL
MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED
TO NORTHWEST WYOMING INCLUDING KPNA AND KJAC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REPLACED BY
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE
WARM WITH DRIER MIN RH'S THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
500 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WYZ001>020-022>030-201100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
500 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SHOSHONE RIVER IN PARK COUNTY DOWNSTREAM OF BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND SWIFT IN MANY AREAS...FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...MOST OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE. ONLY LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF MAINLY AGRICULTURE OR LOW
LYING AREAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. STORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
THREATS OF GUSTY WIND TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...WARM AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WYOMING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEAM RIVERTON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>