Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
129 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...
INSTBY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE OREGON COAST AND
LIFT PROVIDED BY 80-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CA-CNTRL NV TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS
IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF NERN CA-NWRN NV THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO FORM OVER NRN LASSEN AND NWRN WASHOE COUNTIES
DURING THE PAST HOUR. WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH
AS HIGH LEVEL TOTALS OVER 30 AND A LOW LEVEL THETA-E MAXIMUM IN
PLACE...THE MENTION OF TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU THIS EVENING
FOR NRN LASSEN COUNTY AND CARRIED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
SURPRISE VALLEY AND NWRN NV. THERE IS A MORE MARGINAL POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTM CELLS IN NRN PERSHING COUNTY BTWN 06-12Z
AS THE JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS CNTRL NV BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAKER INSTBY.

FARTHER SOUTH IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES...INCREASED 500 MB
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY CUMULUS BUT WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND WEAKER HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE THREAT OF TSTMS IS QUITE
SLIM.

FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AS TROF OFF THE WEST COAST WEAKENS...LEAVING
BEHIND A WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS
PERSISTING NEAR THE US-MEXICO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WHILE MAX TEMPS REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER-
MID 90S FOR MOST WRN NV VALLEYS AND AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE TAHOE
BASIN. COMMON LEE SIDE ZEPHYR TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ARE EXPECTED IN FAR WRN NV FOR SUN-MON...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHTER
WEST BREEZE BY TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TROUGH
WEAKENING AND HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGEST WITH WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE WHICH
WOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES IN SOME WESTERN NV
LOCATIONS. FAVORED A SLIGHTLY MORE TEMPERED WARMING TREND PER THE
GFS DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST PACIFIC TROUGH PATTERN THIS SUMMER.
MODELS SHOW INDICATION OF TROUGH RELOADING AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK (DAYS 8-14).

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS A SLIGHT
WARMING DURING PERIOD AND SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CUMULUS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY THU-SAT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TOO DRY AND
STABLE TO REALIZE DEEP ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ZEPHYR BREEZES ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND PATTERN. HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY WIND GUSTS TO 20-25KT. MOS GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE ANY FOG POTENTIAL FOR KTRK THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS
UPPER JET ALOFT AND DRY AIR PERSIST OVER REGION. HOHMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
546 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

CAZ071-NVZ005-070145-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
546 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 447 THROUGH 630 PM...

AT 545 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM OVER LASSEN COUNTY...18 MILES NORTHEAST OF TERMO AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM DIMINISHES...OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY
PRODUCE AN AREA OF BLOWING DUST ALONG HIGHWAY 447 FROM THE
LASSEN-WASHOE COUNTY LINE...SOUTH THROUGH DUCK FLAT AND INTO THE
BUFFALO HILLS IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.

VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
STRONG WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 447 WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH 630 PM.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 11992 4087 11952 4087 12022 4105 12025
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 262DEG 10KT 4097 12011

BRONG