Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
203 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY....BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1115 AM WEDNESDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT... ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE
QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
(WHERE A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS... WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TOO) TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. MUCH COLDER AIR RESIDES BEHIND THE FRONT... WHICH IS
LOCATED FROM LA/MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. IN FACT TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO/IA/IL ARE IN THE
20S AND 30S.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT... WILL BE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MLCAPE OF UP TO 500 TO 1000
J/KG TODAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY FROM AROUND 00Z TO 06-09Z
WE WILL MISS OUT ON PEAK HEATING... AND SUBSEQUENT BEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
GOOD... THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS... WITH A
BAND/LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SPC LATEST DAY ONE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS CENTRAL NC IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THEY HAVE BUMPED UP THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AND INCREASED
THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES TO 5 PERCENT. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE WIND OF 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TODAY TO 50 TO 60
KTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. AFTER THIS FIRST AREA OF
PRECIP EXITS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS (MOST PRECIP WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERLY HALF OF THE CWA)... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE
A LULL BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT. STILL
THINKING THE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS WITH
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT). HOWEVER... A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE LINE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS (SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY). LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH/NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST (VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
QUICK THE COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THOUGH). -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH SOME WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. ATTENDANT LAGGING H8 TROUGH AND LEFT FRONT JET DIVERGENCE
REGION PUNCHING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
A BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL THEN SEE A WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND
FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DRY/COLD AIR
ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ONLY A 2 TO
5 DEGREE RISE FROM MORNING LOWS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE NIGHTTIME LOWS...WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM UPPER 28 TO 33 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BY SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS WARMS FROM
LOWER TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY TO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER NIGHT OF AROUND FREEZING MINS FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATING TO
LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO AS A BROAD FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER
THE GOM INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE TIMING/INTERACTION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION
IN THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND THE ASSOCIATED WAVERING BAROCLINIC
FRONTAL ZONE. WITH BLOCKING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN OR IF CENTRAL NC WILL EVER SEE THE FRONT MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH
A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...

CIGS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA (GSO/INT/RDU) THIS MORNING... WITH VFR
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AT MOST SITES WITHING A FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE... MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KGSO/KINT). AT KFAY AND KRWI... CIGS HAVE LIFT
AND CONDITIONS ARE VFR. THIS HAS ALLOWED STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT KFAY AND KRWI... WHERE WIND GUSTS OF UP
TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AT KRDU/KINT/KGSO WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SIMILAR VALUES
AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT.

A GOOD 4-6 HR PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS (AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS) IS EXPECTED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW-SE BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00Z AND 06-09Z THU MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (50 KT)...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 04Z
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW THEN NNE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AT ~08 TO 15 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN
ASSOC/W STRONG PRESSURE RISES...STRONGEST IN THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH... LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD:
A CLEARING TREND AND RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE BETWEEN
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE (AND A DRIER
AIRMASS) BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT IN
ASSOC/W SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(MAINLY PRE-DAWN LOW STATUS/FOG... LIFTING BY LATE MORNING EACH DAY)
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES IN ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/RE
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
459 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-171100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
459 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 891 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED...PARTICULARLY URBAN...FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
434 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

NCZ010-011-162230-
HALIFAX-WARREN-
434 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...A HEAVY SHOWER WITH ROTATION WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN AND HALIFAX
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EST...

AT 434 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A HEAVY SHOWER OVER
MACON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LITTLETON...ROSEMARY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS SHOWER. SHOULD THE
STORM ROTATION INCREASE AND THE STORM INTENSIFY A WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7788 3651 7781 3648 7776 3649 7773
      3649 7764 3647 7763 3645 7763 3630 7804
      3632 7810 3643 7818 3655 7795 3655 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 240DEG 33KT 3640 7802

MWS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>