Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTH CAROLINA...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM...

LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE CONVECTION AND
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 JOULES NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE BY
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. 250 MILLIBAR DIVERGENCE LINES UP WELL WITH THE
850 MILLIBAR TROUGH... WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO SHARPEN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST MODELS HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE ADVECTION OF NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR FROM THE WEST. THE MASS
OF DRY AIR BELOW 7000 FEET WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AND ANY
LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. WILL HOLD RAIN CHANCES
AT NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WITH HAIL A RISK IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE CORE. TIMING CONTINUES TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING... WITH THE THREAT EXITING TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH PASSAGE.

SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE CONVECTION. GUSTS TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL EXCEED 25 MPH NEAR SUNSET AND NOT SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. GREENSBORO THICKNESSES FORECAST TO FALL TO 1325
METERS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS IS LIKELY TOO
LOW. WITH SOME WIND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... LOW TEMPERATURES MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM...

WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS
MOMENTUM SHOULD BE TAPPED BY MID MORNING. GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS SHOULD NOT INTERFERE GREATLY WITH INSOLATION
SATURDAY. A DECENT GRADIENT OF THICKNESS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 68
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT
LITTLE TO NO CALM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM NEAR 43 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS QUICKEST WITH
THE LOW DIVING SOUTH AND ALSO DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE ECMWF...AS THE GFS TENDS TO MOVE THESE SYSTEMS OUT TOO QUICKLY.
ECMWF HAS THE H5 LOW DIVING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY 12Z
MONDAY...AND LINGERS OVER VA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...IF IT OCCURS...TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
FROM 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT THEM BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH THE
POSITION OF THE LOW FROM THE ECMWF AND THE INCREASED CHANCES OF
CLOUD COVER NORTH...WILL NOT CHANGE LOW TEMPS MUCH ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EXPECT THEM TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH TO START BUILDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND NNW SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL. SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...IF ANY WOULD OCCUR...MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. NUDGED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE EAST...BUT KEPT THEM LOW
THROUGHOUT...BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE CURRENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE IN SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IN SHOWERS... CEILINGS
MOSTLY VFR BUT VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 MILES IN SHOWERS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS VICINITY OF SHOWERS. CONVECTION EXITS TO THE EAST WELL
BEFORE MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH... WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. VFR SATURDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH BY 10 AM.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-011815-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-
RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
202 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-011815-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-
HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
202 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM ALONG THE HIGHWAY ONE CORRIDOR
INCLUDING RALEIGH...HENDERSON AND LAURINBURG...AND BETWEEN 6 PM
AND 10 PM ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT AND GOLDSBORO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
527 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NCZ077-088-302215-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-
527 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT AND NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
WEST OF POPE AFB...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT BRAGG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PINEVIEW...AND...
SPRING LAKE...TIMBERLAKE...AND...ANDERSON CREEK...LILLINGTON...BUIES
CREEK...AND...ERWIN...COATS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 7912 3519 7910 3521 7915 3524 7917
      3527 7922 3552 7871 3549 7866 3536 7856
      3534 7853 3532 7854 3530 7858 3524 7862
      3511 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 241DEG 37KT 3522 7910

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
535 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NCZ008-025>027-041-042-302230-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-JOHNSTON-NASH-WAKE-
535 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAKE... SOUTHEAST
GRANVILLE... FRANKLIN AND NASH COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF APEX NORTHEAST THROUGH RALEIGH... TO
FRANKLINTON... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... RALEIGH APEX...
ROLESVILLE... PILOT... BUNN... LOUISBURG... AND NASHVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR 15 TO 20 MINUTES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 7798 3618 7798 3619 7796 3618 7792
      3615 7789 3615 7785 3597 7778 3588 7782
      3556 7874 3610 7882 3618 7849 3616 7842
      3620 7839 3624 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 252DEG 30KT 3584 7855

BADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NCZ042-077-088-089-302245-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-JOHNSTON-SAMPSON-
549 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SAMPSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...JOHNSTON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 645
PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF HOPE
MILLS...TO SPRING LAKE...TO LILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BUIES CREEK...CEDAR
CREEK...VANDER...COATS CROSSROADS...GODWIN...SALEMBURG.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING
AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 7897 3495 7903 3505 7909 3510 7910
      3538 7890 3561 7836 3560 7811 3558 7807
      3542 7816 3535 7816 3532 7828 3529 7830
      3525 7827 3499 7835 3487 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 242DEG 44KT 3536 7884 3505 7908

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
552 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             1 W YOUNGSVILLE         36.03N  78.50W
09/30/2011  E0.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           NC   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR YOUNGSVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101463

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
639 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

NCZ009>011-026>028-041-042-302330-
EDGECOMBE-FRANKLIN-HALIFAX-JOHNSTON-NASH-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-
639 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NASH...WARREN...WAKE...VANCE...HALIFAX...FRANKLIN AND EDGECOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 636 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM RALEIGH TO ROANOKE
RAPIDS... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED
NEAR BETWEEN CASTALIA AND AVENTON... OVER NORTHERN NASH COUNTY...
AND AIRLIE IN WESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR 20 MINUTES.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7788 3651 7781 3648 7776 3649 7764
      3645 7762 3641 7754 3637 7754 3635 7758
      3631 7756 3633 7744 3630 7741 3626 7740
      3571 7822 3575 7868 3655 7832 3655 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 247DEG 22KT 3635 7784

BADGETT