Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...

CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES WITH SURFACE TO 1KM HELICITY
FROM 100 TO 300 M2/S2 IN A MOIST AIR MASS...WITH THE AXIS OF THE
LOWEST 100MB MIXED-LAYER CAPE STRETCHED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
RANGING NEAR 1000J/KG. AS THE REMNANT LOW OF LEE WEAKENS...SHEAR
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE THREAT OF
ROTATING STORMS DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
COULD STILL BE A THREAT WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THE TORNADO
WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATIONAL
SIGNATURES WILL BE LOW-TOPPED AND QUICK TO SPIN UP. AT THIS
TIME...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS AND WHAT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATE...HIGHS AND LOWS WERE
LEFT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE MID-UPPER LOW
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OR SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME OVER THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WED-THU. CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE MID-UPPER LOW WITH A VERY DEEP
AND MOIST (TROPICAL) FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SSW IN PLACE. WHEN
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AS
SOME MODELS SUGGEST COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S... THIS WOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW FORECASTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DURING MAXIMUM HEATING. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR
TWO. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW... WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS THE MAIN FOCUS. LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY... PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER... AS THE MID-UPPER LOW FILLS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY... THE CHANCE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. LOOK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED AFTER
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 311 AM TUESDAY...

FINAL DISCUSSION AS NEW 00Z/06 SEP EUROPEAN SUPPORTS DISCUSSION
BELOW... WITH EMPHASIS ON RELOADING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WITH WITH RENEWED RAIN CHANCES.

USING THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR KATIA AND FAVORING THE 12Z/EC FOR
THE GENERAL MID-UPPER FLOW PATTERN FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND FAVOR KEEPING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST
BEFORE RELOADING AND COMING BACK EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. KATIA IS
FORECAST TO MAKE A SWIFT TURN TO THE NE OUT TO SEA BEFORE BECOMING
AN ISSUE. AS THE NEW TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST... THIS MAY END UP WETTER THAN THE MODEL QPF. WE
WILL GO WITH 30-40 POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH
DAY WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
PREDOMINATELY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH IT WEAK...ALONG WITH MIXING
COULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR  ~15Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS(KFAY AND KRWI)

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE N/NW IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER OR IN THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT
TODAY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KINT/KGSO TAF SITES SEE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON (18-21Z).
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
(15-18Z) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AND THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD:
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL NC...ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TAF SITES. ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOC/W ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN ASSOC/W
A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH THE FORECAST THU/FRI. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-
038>041-073>076-083-084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
521 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-070930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
521 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 845 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS
IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-070930-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
521 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 845 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS
IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

VINCENT

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