Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT WEST TODAY AND
ALLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM...

CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA ARE SET TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BEFORE
RECOVERING A BIT. CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THOSE
OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF STORMS.

SEVERE THREAT LIMITED TO DOWNBURST WINDS... BUT A SMALLER THREAT
THAN SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH ISOLATED FLOODING A RISK.

SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. AIR COLUMN IS TOO SATURATED
TO EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN LOCALIZED FOG TOWARD SUNRISE.

AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE
SUNSET MONDAY WILL ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE OVER
NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS GENERALLY
THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AT BEST. NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES
PAST 50 PERCENT... BUT COVERAGE WISE... THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST
RAIN OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK. MODERATE INSTABILITY... AND CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 JOULES SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW SHORT LIVED SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN SHOULD HOLD MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID
90S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
70S... THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT A BIT WARMER THAN TONIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: THE SOUTHEASTWARD PASSAGE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 64.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER NORTHERN NC AS WELL...
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD PROVE TOO HOSTILE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED...IN AN
ATYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AMIDST SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SANDHILLS...
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND
OR BEFORE SUNSET. GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT SUCH A WEAK/SHALLOW FEATURE IS
UNLIKELY TO FORCE NOCTURNALLY-COOLED PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. THE
FORECAST WILL ACCORDINGLY BE KEPT DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WED AND WED NIGHT: NWP MODELS INDICATE A TRAILING TROUGH ALOFT WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY WED. THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING --
FOLLOWED BY STRONG HEIGHT RISES ASSOCIATED WITH A RETURNING MID
LEVEL RIDGE -- AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER DRYNESS...SUGGEST ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND MOST PROBABLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA. THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO HERALD THE
BEGINNINGS OF HEATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE INVOF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE BY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER SE CANADA ON
SUN - A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE AFFECTING THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION NOW. AS SUCH...A REPEAT OF VERY HOT
CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IS EXPECTED BY FRI-SAT...
AFTER 95 TO 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THU. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
CENTERED NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...FOCUSED BY A LEE/THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY HIGHWAYS
SIXTY-FOUR AND ONE AT THIS TIME...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. OTHER THAN VICINITY OF
SHOWERS... CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR UNTIL THE DAWN HOURS WHEN SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. MOST CONVECTION WILL END A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PAST MIDNIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON... THEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION CHANCES DWINDLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND BECOME A
LITTLE MORE STABLE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...EXPECT A 2
TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG OR HAZE AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
GSO                                    RDU

DATE     HIGH/YEAR    HIGH MIN/YEAR    HIGH/YEAR  HIGH MIN/YEAR

SUN 24:   96/2010       78/2010        100/2010       79/2010

THU 28:  100/1952       74/1987        104/1952       75/1997
FRI 29:  101/1952       75/2010        104/1952       76/2002
SAT 30:   97/1954       74/1931        101/1953       75/2008

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ008>011-
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-250930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
407 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN
AREAS.

DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-250930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
407 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN
AREAS.

DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ073-074-083-084-241845-
ANSON-MONTGOMERY-RICHMOND-STANLY-
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY...RICHMOND...
MONTGOMERY AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 6 MILES WEST OF TROY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...TROY...BADIN LAKE...ALBERMARLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR
VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8051 3550 8029 3551 7977 3526 7970
      3518 7965 3512 7957 3507 7958 3506 7948
      3504 7946 3503 7951 3499 7958 3498 8002
      3519 8028 3516 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 277DEG 4KT 3534 8000

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ039-040-075-076-241930-
CHATHAM-LEE-MOORE-RANDOLPH-
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...MOORE...LEE
AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER HARPERS CROSSROADS...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTH OF SILER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GOLDSTON...CUMNOCK.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...GOLDSTON...CUMNOCK.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 7924 3587 7925 3586 7911 3587 7891
      3562 7899 3561 7899 3558 7892 3527 7922
      3527 7971 3530 7971 3551 7977 3585 7993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 275DEG 7KT 3558 7941

ELLIS

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