Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. MORE SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...

CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF AN MVC MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT
AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED...AND A SURFACE TROF IN THE
EAST WILL PROVIDE WEAK FORCING FOR CONVECTION WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT A SURFACE
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN LATER TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE LARGELY PERSISTENCE...70 T0 75...
WITH THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
THICKNESSES FALL OFF A FULL 30 METERS...~10 DEGREES...RESULTING IN
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

STILL LOOKS LIKE A STABLE... DRY... AND SEASONABLE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT... AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC AND CLOSES OFF A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SE ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING DRIFTS TO THE ESE... TO A POSITION JUST
OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING... ALL THE WHILE
RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC. THE LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES EASTERLY BY SATURDAY... PULLING IN A STEADY FEED OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. MID LEVELS WILL BE SIMILARLY DRY AND WARMING...
WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT STEADILY RISING AS A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
STRENGTHENS OVER NE/MO. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. THE GFS DEPICTS
ENOUGH MOIST UPGLIDE AROUND 310K FOR A FEW MID CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE ARTIFICIALLY ENHANCED BY EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS... AND WILL BE DOWNPLAYED WITH JUST A PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL PROJECTED THICKNESSES ARE NEAR OR JUST UNDER
SEASONAL NORMALS... A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER THIS HOT SPELL...
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS OF 84-89... AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD BY THE STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS LARGELY CENTERED STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS (KS/NE/MO/IA) THROUGH MIDWEEK. 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES OVER NC STEADILY CLIMB BACK TO WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL
VALUES... POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1430 M ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST RIDGES WESTWARD
ELONGATED ACROSS VA/NC... THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW ON
ITS SOUTH SIDE... INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES... EVENTUALLY PULLS
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO COASTAL AREAS TO OUR SOUTH. NC THEN BECOMES
THE BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN THIS HIGH-PW AIR AND THE DRY/WARM/SUBSIDING
AIR TO THE N AND NW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSUMED HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. TOUGH TO SAY AT THIS TIME RANGE
WHICH WILL WIN OUT... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT KEEPING
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NC AND HOLDING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THIS PERIOD... THUS KEEPING
OUR AREA LARGELY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS RETROGRADE THIS RIDGE SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SSE TOWARD NC... WHILE THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHIFTS THE 5960
METER RIDGE EASTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY... KEEPING CENTRAL NC GENERALLY DRY AND HOT UNDER
A WEEK LEE TROUGH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
EVIDENT HERE AND CONSIDERING THAT THE 12Z/13 GFS HAS A FARTHER-EAST
RIDGE CENTER AT 180H AS COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN... WILL LEAN
TOWARD POPS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY... 25 PERCENT OR LOWER... AND TEMPS
1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... YIELDING LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S... AND HIGHS RISING FROM AROUND 90/LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY
TO THE MID-UPPER 90S BY WEDNESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
HOWEVER LIGHT... WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY VERY CLOSELY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM..

CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THUNDER IS CURRENTLY IN THE GSO/INT AREAS AND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. STORMS WILL WEAKEN BY 02Z WITH COOLING...BUT A FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SHOWERS/SCT STORMS THROUGH 09Z.

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY
THEN GENERALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY EACH MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK IN FOG.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORDS FOR JULY 13.

RDU

     REC MAX            REC HI MIN
    98 - 1951           78 - 1981

GSO PIEDMONT TRIAD

     REC MAX            REC HI MIN
    98 - 1954           75 - 1981

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MB
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..MLM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ022-023-039-040-131945-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...
CHATHAM AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FOREST OAKS...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENSBORO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY...STALEY...
SNOW CAMP.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 7923 3566 7944 3595 7979 3609 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 308DEG 10KT 3596 7963

23