Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1022 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1017 PM MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE THROUGH THE
TRIAD REGION. THE LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM YANCEYVILLE
TO ELON TO RANDLEMAN. RAINFALL HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH TOTALS UP
TO 1.67 REPORTED FROM LEWISVILLE IN FORSYTH COUNTY. A TREE WAS
REPORTED DOWN IN FORSYTH COUNTY EARLIER. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE
TO BACKBUILD INTO WESTERN FORSYTH COUNTY WHERE THE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. RECENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD KEEP FLASH FLOODING DOWN... BUT IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION... WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED (ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT
WESTERN FORSYTH WHICH IS GETTING A THIRD STORM NOW).

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 1200
AM. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE BRIEFLY SEVERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE VA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS APPEARS
TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER
COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY FASTER NAM AND ECMWF. MID LEVEL TROUGH A
BIT SHARPER...SUGGESTING BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. THUS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION START BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THEN PROGRESS
EAST-SE ACROSS THE REGION. TROUGH SLOW TO LIFT OUT SO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ON SEVERE POTENTIAL AS EXTENSIVE
MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSOLATION. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...STILL NOT TO THE THRESHOLD FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THUS...EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ENOUGH WESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN TO CAUSE STORMS TO
MOVE STEADILY (15-20 MPH) TO THE EAST. STILL...LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING. RH
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME PARTIAL SUN POSSIBLE MID-LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION FIRES. TRIMMED MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
REALIZED TUESDAY MORNING...MAX TEMPS MAY END UP STILL BEING A
CATEGORY TOO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...PRECIP WILL
BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES A COOLER (RELATIVE TO
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING) NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
COLUMN DRYING OUT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...OUR FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PRECIP CHANCES ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON ANY
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACCURATELY PREDICT THIS FAR OUT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION BEING POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGH THAN SLIGHT CHANCE SINCE THIS
IS DAY 7/8 TIME FRAME.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

INTENSE CONVECTION FROM KRDU SOUTH AND AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
HAS ALL BUT COME TO AN END...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED.  STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS..AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN TN...IS APPROACHING
KINT/KGSO AS OF 23Z.  WHILE THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SCATTERED...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST IN THE
VICINITY OF KGSO/KINT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  ANY OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.  THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
KRDU THIS EVENING.

STRATUS AND POSSIBLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY
TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT KRWI WHERE RAIN
FELL EARLIER TODAY.  HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR A
PERIOD NEAR SUNRISE AT KRWI.

ON TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE REGION.  EXPECTED TO SEE
STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN NC AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD.  CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE CURRENT TAF.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL
REDUCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...WSS/22

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
807 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ021-038-280115-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-
807 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HUNTSVILLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF EAST BEND...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE...
CLEMMONS...PFAFFTOWN...WINSTON-SALEM...WALKERTOWN...SEDGE GARDEN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3626 8003 3572 8006
      3580 8047 3583 8049 3584 8043 3586 8042
      3585 8039 3589 8042 3590 8039 3589 8037
      3596 8038 3599 8043 3601 8042 3606 8047
      3604 8049 3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 276DEG 16KT 3611 8048

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CLEMMONS          35.99N  80.40W
06/27/2011                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON FOXPARK DRIVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100933

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1004 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ007-021>024-038>040-280400-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ORANGE-PERSON-RANDOLPH-
1004 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION
THROUGH 1100 PM...

AT 1000 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM GORDONTOWN TO GREENSBORO TO MONTICELLO... MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GUILFORD... EASTERN DAVIDSON... NORTHERN RANDOLPH... AND ALAMANCE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ALTAMAHAW...UNION
RIDGE...CONCORD...ROXBORO...BETHEL HILL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 7917 3568 8027 3626 8005 3625 7916
      3654 7914 3655 7885
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 242DEG 22KT 3619 7965

BADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1048 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ007>009-022>026-041-280345-
ALAMANCE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-ORANGE-PERSON-VANCE-WAKE-
1048 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PERSON... ORANGE...
AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM...

AT 1047 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BUSHY FORK TO NEAR BURLINGTON TO NEAR RANDLEMAN...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON...
ALAMANCE AND ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ROXBORO...SURL...OAK
HILL...STOVALL...DABNEY...TUNGSTEN...HILLSBOROUGH...BURLINGTON...ELON
...SNOW CAMP... CHAPEL HILL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7827 3627 7830 3626 7827 3590 7820
      3588 7822 3587 7954 3590 7955 3590 7962
      3625 7937 3625 7916 3646 7915 3655 7860
      3654 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 262DEG 31KT 3637 7909

BADGETT

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