Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
236 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST TODAY...THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST.
BEST INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WHERE SUNSHINE HAS
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AT 2 PM. DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S IN THIS AREA. POTENTIAL ENERGY EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2000
JOULES. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE WET MICROBURSTS WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL. FURTHER WEST... COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS CAPE SHOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT.

COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
POTENTIAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
ONE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE AIR MASS ABOVE 10000 FEET ON
SUNDAY IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANY
CONVECTION ALMOST CERTAIN TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WELL
SCATTERED. SLIGHT TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND
ANY STORMS LIKELY DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW UPPER 50S... BUT LOWER 60S MORE COMMON. MORE SUNSHINE AND
EARLIER THAN RECENT DAYS SHOULD MOVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S NORTHWEST AND 80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT... COOLER AIR
IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST RISING TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY AS THE OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE WAS VISIBLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WESTERN
DAKOTAS...ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS MAINTAIN THE INTEGRITY AND IDENTITY OF THIS
SHORT WAVE AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE AND AROUND THE CUTOFF...
BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW LATE MONDAY. INSOLATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AT BEST...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH AXIS INCHING
EAST...HIGH TEMPS WILL STALL IN LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH
AND EAST.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC
SUPPORT PROGRESSES BEFORE BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE LARGER PATTERN
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...THUS WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDER IN THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
LATE DAY FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. BUT...UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROXIMITY AND DETAILS OF THE DYNAMICS CIRCLING THE PERSISTENT
UPPER CUTOFF MAKE PINNING DOWN TIMING FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION
GUESSWORK. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
POP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH DAYS. WITH NO CHANGE IN
AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...70 TO 75 BOTH DAYS...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVERAGE AND HIGH HUMIDITY...MID 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN SHOWS SLOW
TRANSLATION EAST AND THE UPPER LOW WOULD BE EITHER LIFTING OUT OR
NUDGED EAST...PUTTING US UNDER A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL DECREASE...BUT
NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE...THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
INTO THE WEEKEND. REDUCED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE MORE EACH DAY...REACHING THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN THE
WARMER AIR MASS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE. STORMS LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN SPOTS OVER THE EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR TO LIFR STRATUS OUTSIDE SHOWERS NOT FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AS EARLY TONIGHT AS RECENT NIGHTS... PERHAPS DELAYING
UNTIL NEAR DAWN. SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD DAWN AS WELL.

LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BREAK A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
SATURDAY...THE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. ANY STRATUS NEAR DAWN WOULD
BE ISOLATED. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
603 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-150930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
603 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
454 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             5 S HOBBTON             35.10N  78.32W
05/14/2011  E0.88 INCH       SAMPSON            NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100634

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
506 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIKEVILLE               35.50N  77.98W
05/14/2011                   WAYNE              NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN PIKEVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100635

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
522 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

NCZ011-027-028-043-142215-
EDGECOMBE-HALIFAX-NASH-WILSON-
522 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NASH...WILSON...HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

STORMS STRETCHING FROM ROCKY MOUNT WEST ACROSS LOUISBURG WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SCOTLAND NECK...ARCOLA...ENFIELD...ROANOKE
RAPIDS...AND HALIFAX EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3583 7735
      3580 7747 3574 7754 3588 7822 3630 7794
      3652 7790 3647 7763 3645 7762 3641 7754
      3637 7754 3634 7758 3632 7757 3633 7744
      3624 7737 3621 7738 3616 7727 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 198DEG 63KT 3624 7773

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
525 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             4 WSW FAYETTEVILLE      35.04N  78.95W
05/14/2011  M0.88 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL HAIL FELL FOR JUST OVER 1 MINUTE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100636

KRR

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