Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
214 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/...
AS OF 1005 PM MONDAY...

     STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE
WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINA AND ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. WHAT WAS A VERY STRONG BOWING LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE HAS WEAKENED A BIT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS BUT IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
REORGANIZATION AS A NEW BOWING SEGMENT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AS MOIST AIR IS BROUGHT UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS THERE IS AN
AREA OF INCREASED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...DCAPE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
FROM DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL OR AN EMBEDDED
TORNADO BUT NEITHER CAN BE RULED OUT. TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH
ONSET IN THE TRIAD AFTER 6Z AND MORE LIKE 9Z IN THE TRIANGLE. WITH
SOME HISTORY OF TRAINING STORMS AND A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
BEHIND THE LINE...HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTAL QPF NUMBERS TO 0.6
INCHES IN THE NORTH AND CLOSER TO 0.5 IN THE SOUTH WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG STORMS. ALSO WITH THE TRAILING STRATIFORM
HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT APPEARS SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA A BIT LONGER.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS...SKIES CLEAR OUT AND INCREASED
HEATING OCCURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HAVE INCREASED LOWS OVER NIGHT IN THE
TRIAD TO LOW 50'S BUT STILL EXPECTING NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE
ACHIEVING LOWS CLOSER TO 15Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH LOWS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTHWEST TO 65 SOUTHEAST. FOR TUESDAY
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OUT TOMORROW...DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN COUPLED
WITH STRONG WINDS MAKING FIRE DANGER MORE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON A BIT LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

RETURN TO A MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A
COMMENCEMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BUILD AND EXTEND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. BLUSTERY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL DROP OFF APPRECIABLY BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS AIR MASS
COOLS AND STABILIZES. AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
SPREADS OVERNIGHT VARYING FROM ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A
NARROWER RANGE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST. LOCALES WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE INITIALLY WILL STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT FROST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FORECAST TO
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 33 TO 38.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AID TO MODIFY AIR MASS QUICKLY. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE
DAY... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70... JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. NOT AS CHILLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY OCCUR AND PATCHES OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PROJECTED TO TRAVERSE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S.
ON THURSDAY...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE
ABOUT 20 METERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 70S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

A VERY WARM PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THIS PERIOD AS UPPER AIR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A MINOR UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SUGGEST AN ACTIVE
WEATHER REGIME FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
DISTURBANCE IN THIS ACTIVE FLOW TO OUR NORTH MAY DRAG A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SOME QUESTION STILL ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES NOT OVERLY
SHARP BUT DOES MAINTAIN POSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES/FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLAN TO SHOW SOME
COOLING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST SUNDAY (THOUGH IF 12Z GFS
VERIFIES...COOLING MORE PRONOUNCED SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN WITH WARMING TREND OCCURRING ON SUNDAY).

DUE TO VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE INTO THE 1400 TO 1410 METER RANGE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SUPPORTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME AS RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN 00Z
ECMWF AT THIS TIME. KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED VERY WARM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE TRIAD
REGION AT THIS HOUR. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE HEAVY RAINS...EVEN BEHIND
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST (KINT/KGSO) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
SHOULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU/KFAY)
BETWEEN 07/08Z AND THEN THE EAST (KRWI) BY 08/09Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE NOTICEABLY DECREASING. SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY SOON AFTER RAIN ENDS TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1005 PM MONDAY...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS
BLUSTERY ONCE AGAIN... SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS. WITH RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT AT 30 TO 40 PERCENT... FIRE
DANGER WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. -GIH/RTE

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KRR
FIRE WEATHER...HARTFIELD/ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
422 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-060830-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
422 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 100 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>076-083-084-060830-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
422 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

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