Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Raleigh, NC

290 
WWUS52 KRAH 132325
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCC063-135-145-132345-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110513T2345Z/
DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
725 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERSON...NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHERN DURHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ROUGEMONT...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF ROXBORO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... SURL...MORIAH AND
BAHAMA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3635 7881 3612 7880 3610 7881 3614 7911
      3636 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 291DEG 7KT 3627 7893

$$

22

926 
WWUS52 KRAH 132334
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
734 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCC063-135-145-132345-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110513T2345Z/
DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
734 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERSON...NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHERN DURHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 730 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ROUGEMONT...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF ROXBORO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... SURL...MORIAH AND
BAHAMA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3633 7881 3612 7880 3610 7881 3617 7904
      3630 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 291DEG 7KT 3626 7891

$$

22

338 
WWUS52 KRAH 132340
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCC063-135-145-132350-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110513T2345Z/
DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-
740 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERSON...
NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHERN DURHAM COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 745 PM
EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3633 7881 3612 7880 3610 7881 3617 7904
      3630 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 291DEG 7KT 3626 7890

$$

22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM...

A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER NC EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE TRIAD
REGION SE THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AREA. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE FROM LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TOWARD THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...
ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ONE STORM OVER FORSYTH
MOVED SE WHILE ANOTHER THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN DAVIDSON MOVED
NORTHWEST INTO YADKIN AND WESTERN FORSYTH... MERGING WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THIS TYPE OF ERRATIC MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 270 AT 25KT.

SHEAR IS AROUND 25 TO 30KT... AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
RATIONING STORMS. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR ROXBORO WITH THE
CURRENT CELL NOW TURNING TO THE SE AT 20 MPH. THEREFORE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

IT APPEARS THAT A COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO DRIVE THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP INTO A LARGE BOW ECHO AND SURGE INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER REGION. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

-BADGETT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

VORTICITY COMPLEX NOW IN ALABAMA FORECAST TO BE IN THE SOUTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECTING
THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW AND IN
PLACE UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BEFORE NOON... WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND VORTICITY
COMPLEX EXITING THE AREA TOWARD SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN DOUBT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING PRECIPITATION AND
LOW CLOUDINESS. FORECAST OF UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE WEST COULD
GO EITHER DIRECTION. LOWER 80S EXPECTED IN THE EAST.

SUN THROUGH WED: THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE COMPLEX MID-UPPER
TROUGH AND NOTABLE LARGE VORTEX OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY WILL
MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PERTURBED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ATOP ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING...OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST COAST THIS PERIOD. BOTH PRECEDING RICH BL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AND A DEEP MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED
BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS BY SUN MORNING GIVEN THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER...DIABATIC
WARMING/BL DESTABILIZATION...BENEATH POCKETS OF LIFT AND COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDING A SERIES OF AT LEAST THREE OR FOUR
SIGNIFICANT AND LIKELY NEGATIVELY-TILTED PERTURBATIONS (WITH PERIODS
OF 12-24 HOURS EACH) FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE MEAN MID-UPPER
LOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE SCATTERED...PRIMARILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. A PROJECTED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (TO LOWER 80S IN THE EAST
SUN-MON) AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S (TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
EAST)...AND ENHANCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF
THE MID-UPPER LOW...WOULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI: A STEADY CASCADE OF S/W ENERGY UNDERNEATH THE
BLOCKING OMEGA RIDGE INITIALLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD CAUSE
HEIGHTS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A NEW VORTEX TO DEVELOP AT THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE...INVOF CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS VORTEX WILL SERVE AS A KICKER TO EJECT THE PRECEDING
VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...THEREBY
ALLOWING HEIGHT RISES IN S/W RIDGING ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS...
WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...

EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD. A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE. EXPECTING LIFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO AT LEAST MID MORNING
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYTIME... THOUGH
GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED LATE AT NIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...RLH/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...RLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
454 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCZ010-011-026>028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-142100-
WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
454 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
ONE INCH HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>041-073>076-083-084-142100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-
454 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCZ021-132215-
FORSYTH-
534 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FORSYTH COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHEAST SURRY AND NORTHEAST YADKIN COUNTY... MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... RURAL HALL...
PFAFFTOWN... STANLEYVILLE... THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF WINSTON-SALEM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8046 3614 8044 3621 8045 3623 8044
      3624 8046 3626 8046 3627 8045 3626 8010
      3625 8005 3599 8034 3612 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 280DEG 26KT 3622 8043

BADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
542 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCZ040-076-132245-
CHATHAM-LEE-
542 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS LEE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GOLDSTON...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SILER CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARPERS
CROSSROADS...PITTSBORO AND GOLDSTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 7900 3547 7931 3548 7935 3550 7934
      3552 7935 3552 7942 3557 7954 3585 7933
      3585 7932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 216DEG 11KT 3559 7936

KRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCZ007-132330-
PERSON-
652 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON COUNTY THROUGH 730
PM EDT...

AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SURL...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF ROXBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MORIAH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7887 3625 7880 3624 7880 3624 7910
      3639 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 323DEG 13KT 3628 7894

KRR