Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1252 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION TODAY....THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

     SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY...

A 16Z RAOB HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR KGSO. THE GARNER NOAA WEATHER
RADIO IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO PHONE LINE PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

LOOKING OVER RECENT TRENDS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS EVERYTHING REMAINS
PRIMED FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL NC
FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH LIGHTNING
DATA SHOW A BAND OF DEVELOPING STORMS ALREADY STARTING TO ORGANIZE
THEMSELVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN  A REGION
JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BEST. BEST SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL OVER SC THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 60S THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. LOW LCLS AND HIGH SHEAR FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE DYNAMICS AND
UPDRAFT VELOCITIES INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST THE DANGER OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE GREATLY.

THE COMBINATION OF ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A QLCS SQUALL LINE ALL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IN THE
TRIAD IS FROM NOON THROUGH 3 PM...THE TRIANGLE FROM 1 PM THROUGH 5
PM...THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM 2 PM THROUGH 7 PM.

FLOOD THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AS SOILS HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY FROM THE
LAST SIGNIFICANT RAINS AND TRAINING OF STORMS IS NOT LIKELY. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS WILL HOWEVER CAUSE AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER IN
MORE URBAN LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST. CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT OF CLOUDS AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE CLEAR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 60S IN THE TRIAD TO MID 70S IN THE TRIANGLE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS IT PROGRESSES FAIRLY QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER AND THEN AS RETURN FLOW SETS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THICKNESS VALUES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
1380M BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES (A GOOD FIVE DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON A
MODERATING TREND...WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MID 50S EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...

DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS IT TRACKS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THEREFORE THE
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ON TUESDAY TO THE MID/UPPER
80S BY WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN
PROGGED TO BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
FRONTAL ZONE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WILL ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD..

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM SATURDAY...

WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS OUR
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CURRENT IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS (IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS) AT KINT/KGSO TO RISE TO AROUND 2000
FT THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE GENERALLY LOW VFR OR HIGH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE APPROACH OF A VERY DYNAMIC STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 15-19Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS -- --
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL -- WILL BE
MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROJECTED TIMING OF THE
MOST CONCENTRATED AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN
18-20Z AT KINT/KGSO...20-22Z AT KRDU/KFAY...AND 21-23Z AT KRWI.
DRY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...JO
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1209 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-171615-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1209 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 150 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IN THE TRIAD IS FROM NOON THROUGH 3
PM...THE TRIANGLE FROM 1 PM THROUGH 4 PM...THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM 2 PM THROUGH 7 PM.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS AND ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE PLANS. EVERYONE SHOULD CLOSELY STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS LISTENING FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH... ALLOWING LITTLE TIME
TO REACT ONCE THE THREAT IS NEAR.

TORNADO WINDS CAN DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...SEVERELY DAMAGE HOMES
AND BUILDINGS... OVERTURN VEHICLES... AND COLLAPSE THE ROOFS OF
STORES... GYMNASIUMS... AND CAFETERIAS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS
ISSUED OR A TORNADO IS MOVING TOWARDS YOUR AREA... ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. KNOW WHERE THE
SAFEST LOCATION IN ANY BUILDING YOU OCCUPY IS LOCATED. RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES SHOULD CONSIDER ALTERNATES TO REMAINING HOME THIS
AFTERNOON.

IF YOU ARE INDOORS... TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT. IF NO BASEMENT
IS AVAILABLE... GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS
A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS... WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS. FLYING DEBRIS CAN EASILY PENETRATE EXTERIOR WALLS. PUT AS
MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE TORNADO AS YOU CAN. PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING AND FALLING DEBRIS WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF YOU ARE DRIVING AND A TORNADO THREATENS... SEEK SHELTER IN A
STRONG BUILDING. DO NOT STOP UNDER OVERPASSES. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE... AS A LAST RESORT ABANDON THE VEHICLE AND LIE FLAT IN A
LOW LYING AREA OR DITCH.

MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RALEIGH. YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER ON A WEB ENABLED CELL PHONE OR OTHER MOBILE DEVICE BY
VISITING HTTP://MOBILE.WEATHER.GOV.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM AROUND NOON
THROUGH 7 PM. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT
IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              36.08N  79.45W
04/16/2011  M1.75 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN BURLINGTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100428

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
234 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NNW GRAHAM            36.09N  79.41W
04/16/2011                   ALAMANCE           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE FAIRCHILD
            COMMUNITY CENTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100429

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE SANFORD           35.43N  79.16W
04/16/2011                   LEE                NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON ST. ANDREWS CHURCH ROAD NEAR SANFORD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100430

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
241 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S ASHEBORO            35.68N  79.80W
04/16/2011                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT ZOO PARKWAY AND NEWBERN AVENUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100431

KRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARR                    36.22N  79.22W
04/16/2011                   ORANGE             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN IN CARR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100432

JO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW ROXBORO           36.45N  78.99W
04/16/2011                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT COUNTRY CLUB ROAD... STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO CARPORT...
            TREES DOWN IN ROAD... TRAILER FLIPPED

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100433

SEC