Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Raleigh, NC

207 
WWUS52 KRAH 072323
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
623 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCC065-069-083-127-185-080015-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-FRANKLIN NC-HALIFAX NC-WARREN NC-NASH NC-
623 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EST
FOR NASH...WARREN...HALIFAX...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND EDGECOMBE
COUNTIES...

AT 621 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MACON TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF BAILEY...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARRENTON TO 16
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... LAKE GASTON...ARCOLA...
NASHVILLE...AVENTON...LITTLETON...RED OAK...AIRLIE...DORTCHES...
SHARPSBURG...GLENVIEW...ROCKY MOUNT...BATTLEBORO...WHITAKERS...
ROSEMARY...MACCLESFIELD...KINGSBORO...ENFIELD...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
PINETOPS...SOUTH WELDON...WELDON...HALIFAX...LEGGETT...TARBORO...
PRINCEVILLE...TILLERY...CONETOE...SPEED...SCOTLAND NECK AND HOBGOOD.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3568 7766 3583 7775 3587 7783
      3573 7820 3616 7829 3635 7822 3654 7829
      3655 7792 3651 7788 3649 7764 3642 7755
      3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 265DEG 39KT 3650 7804 3565 7804

$$

VINCENT

587 
WWUS52 KRAH 072334
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
634 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCC065-069-083-127-185-080015-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-FRANKLIN NC-HALIFAX NC-WARREN NC-NASH NC-
634 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EST
FOR NASH...WARREN...HALIFAX...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND EDGECOMBE
COUNTIES...

AT 630 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE GASTON TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MACCLESFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO 18 MILES WEST OF FARMVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... SHARPSBURG...
GLENVIEW...ROCKY MOUNT...BATTLEBORO...WHITAKERS...ROSEMARY...
KINGSBORO...ENFIELD...ROANOKE RAPIDS...PINETOPS...SOUTH WELDON...
WELDON...HALIFAX...LEGGETT...TARBORO...PRINCEVILLE...TILLERY...
CONETOE...SPEED...SCOTLAND NECK AND HOBGOOD.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3568 7766 3583 7775 3587 7783
      3578 7806 3616 7815 3635 7818 3654 7818
      3655 7792 3651 7788 3649 7764 3642 7755
      3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 265DEG 39KT 3654 7786 3567 7785

$$

VINCENT

764 
WWUS52 KRAH 072345
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCC069-072354-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
FRANKLIN NC-
645 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF 
FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH 800 PM THIS 
EVENING.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3651 7788 3649 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734
      3582 7735 3580 7747 3568 7766 3583 7775
      3587 7783 3585 7790 3654 7814 3655 7792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 260DEG 45KT 3654 7776 3618 7773
          3569 7769

$$

NCC065-083-127-185-080015-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-WARREN NC-NASH NC-
645 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EST
FOR EASTERN NASH...EASTERN WARREN...HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 639 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LITTLETON TO
GLENVIEW TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MACCLESFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROANOKE RAPIDS TO 15 MILES NORTH
OF ROCKY MOUNT TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARMVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... WHITAKERS...
KINGSBORO...ROSEMARY...ENFIELD...PINETOPS...ROANOKE RAPIDS...SOUTH
WELDON...LEGGETT...WELDON...TARBORO...HALIFAX...PRINCEVILLE...
CONETOE...TILLERY...SPEED...SCOTLAND NECK AND HOBGOOD.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS 
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

LAT...LON 3651 7788 3649 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734
      3582 7735 3580 7747 3568 7766 3583 7775
      3587 7783 3585 7790 3654 7814 3655 7792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 260DEG 45KT 3654 7776 3618 7773
          3569 7769

$$

VINCENT

799 
WWUS52 KRAH 072357
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCC185-080007-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
WARREN NC-
657 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF 
WARREN COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3570 7763 3589 7773 3618 7783
      3650 7790 3648 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 260DEG 45KT 3648 7762 3617 7758
          3572 7749

$$

NCC065-083-127-080015-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-NASH NC-
657 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EST
FOR NORTHEASTERN NASH...HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 654 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS TO ENFIELD TO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PINETOPS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS
TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX TO 9 MILES NORTH OF FARMVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CONETOE...SPEED...
TILLERY...SCOTLAND NECK AND HOBGOOD.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3570 7763 3589 7773 3618 7783
      3650 7790 3648 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 260DEG 45KT 3648 7762 3617 7758
          3572 7749

$$

VINCENT

430 
WWUS52 KRAH 080010
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCC127-080020-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
NASH NC-
710 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NASH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF NASH 
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...PLEASE 
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE 1...8 7 
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY 
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3595 7754 3605 7759 3621 7764
      3649 7774 3648 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 261DEG 41KT 3650 7750 3619 7741
          3574 7732

$$

NCC065-083-080015-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-
710 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EST
FOR EASTERN HALIFAX AND NORTHEASTERN EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 708 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WELDON TO SCOTLAND
NECK TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CONETOE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
GARYSBURG TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RICH SQUARE TO 9 MILES NORTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3595 7754 3605 7759 3621 7764
      3649 7774 3648 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 261DEG 41KT 3650 7750 3619 7741
          3574 7732

$$

VINCENT

018 
WWUS52 KRAH 080019
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
719 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCC065-083-080028-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0359.000000T0000Z-111208T0015Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-
719 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HALIFAX AND 
NORTHEASTERN EDGECOMBE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED AT 715 PM EST...

THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OF 
EDGECOMBE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...PLEASE 
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE 1...8 7 
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY 
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7735
      3580 7747 3595 7754 3605 7759 3621 7764
      3649 7774 3648 7764 3645 7762 3642 7755
      3635 7758 3631 7756 3633 7744 3622 7738
      3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 261DEG 41KT 3650 7750 3619 7741
          3574 7732

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY... RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ACCORDINGLY BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY IN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BOONE AND STATESVILLE.
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY FROM
HENDERSONVILLE (NC) TO AUGUSTA (GA) HAS BEEN MOSTLY SCATTERED AND
LIGHT..AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT.  COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO PICK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS STRONG DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
LIFTING SHORTWAVE.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING WILL
BE A NARROW BAND OF FORCED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN SC.  SO FAR...A 35KT WIND GUSTS
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT AUGUSTA (GA)...AND SIMILAR IF NOT STRONGER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE
ENERGIZED.  REGIONAL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THE NARROW
CONVECTIVE BAND IS IN THE UPSWING...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED.  DESPITE BEING WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO EASTERN VA THIS
EVENING...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK (100-200 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS) DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  STILL...STRONG 0-3KM
SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT A STRONG LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FROM THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD MAINLY SUB-SEVERE BE IN THE
35-45KT RANGE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A DEEP PV INTRUSION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LEAD TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF RATHER BRISK WINDS THIS EVENING.  IN FACT... THE NAM12
SHOWS A 3HR PRESSURE RISE OF OVER 9MB AFTER 00Z AND AS MUCH AS 30KTS
OF WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE.  HAVE INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 20MPH
AND GUSTS TO 30MPH...MOSTLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  CURRENTLY DO NOT
THINK A SHORT FUSE WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.  THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 30S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK
QUICKLY IN THE WEST...WITH OVERALL LOWS OF 31-40 WEST TO EAST.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.  HIGHS 49-56.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY AND STABLE... HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH SHEARING MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA STREAKING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (NOW LOCATED WEST OF BAJA AND OVER MEXICO) OVER
NC. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK BUT CHILLY SURFACE HIGH INLAND COMBINED WITH
THE WARM WATERS JUST OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BAROCLINICITY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY... AND AS THE 925-850 MB ANTICYCLONES
SHIFT TO THE ENE OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... WINDS IN THIS LAYER
TAKE ON AN ATLANTIC-SOURCE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...
RESULTING IN A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA... ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOIST UPGLIDE AT 290K ALONG/EAST OF I-95. THE NAM HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN DEPICTING THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE... SO WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY
EAST ON FRIDAY. LOWS 28-34 AND HIGHS STILL A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL AT 52-56.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE LARGE VORTEX NOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH ONE
NOTABLE WAVE NOW OVER ALBERTA DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS WITH A POSITIVE TILT THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHEARS TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 50 METERS OVER
CENTRAL NC FRIDAY NIGHT... SO WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THIN HIGH
CLOUDS BUT LIKELY LITTLE ELSE AS THE COLUMN IS PROJECTED TO BE QUITE
DRY AND STABLE THROUGHOUT WITH WEAK BUT DEEP SUBSIDENCE. FRIDAY'S
LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ENDS FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE VEER AROUND TO A WSW DIRECTION AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... THUS EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST
TO DRY UP AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE EVENING. THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SATURDAY IS SOURCED FROM WESTERN
CANADA AND WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
DROPPING ABOUT 10 METERS FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING...
AND DROPPING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1290-1295 METERS (AND
THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY OVERDONE AS THEY CAPTURE A PORTION OF THE
LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CAPPING WARM LAYER ALOFT). EXPECT FAIR
TO CLEAR SKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS 31-38 FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. HIGHS SATURDAY 47-54 AS
INDICATED BY TAKING 950-925 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY
ADIABATICALLY. EXPECT BRISK NNE WINDS SATURDAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION... KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW-MID 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 24-30 WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND INITIALLY COOL... WITH A TREND TOWARD
SEASONABLE TEMPS BY MID WEEK. THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY WILL KEEP A STEADY NORTHEAST TRACK WITHIN THE FAST
STEERING FLOW BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND TO THE SSW OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MONDAY... REINFORCED BY CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ATOP
THE HIGH AS WE HOLD IN A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA.
EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT... AND AS THIS APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE
COAST... WE MAY SEE LOW STRATUS WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY... MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
STRONGLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH RESPECT TO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
FROM NW CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH
STRONGER/DEEPER... CLOSING OFF A LOW NORTH OF INL TUESDAY AND TAKING
IT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY... WHEREAS THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE
WAVE YET KEEPS IT OPEN AND FASTER... CROSSING THE NORTHEAST STATES
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS PREFERRED. IMPACTS FOR NC ARE FEW DUE TO ITS
FAR-NORTH TRACK AND LACK OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN AT ANY
LEVEL. BUT WE MAY SEE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH
ACCOMPANIED BY A BENIGN SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER WESTERN
CANADA SOURCE HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND CONTINUED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS...ALREADY IFR LEVELS...WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY PICKS UP SPEED AND CROSSES THE AREA.
WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT FOR MUCH FOR THE AFTERNOON..A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...12-15KT WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH WILL GUST INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20KT RANGE.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...AS SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY.  THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BEGIN BY 22Z
AT KGSO/KINT...01Z AT KRDU...AND 03Z AT KRWI/KFAY.  A PERIOD OF
15-20KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (CROSSWINDS FOR MANY RUNWAYS) AND GUSTS
OF 25-30T ARE EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH/CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
559 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-082300-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
559 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ010-011-026>028-042-043-078-089-082300-
WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
559 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 897 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 1000 PM THIS
EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
451 PM EST WED DEC 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAURINBURG MAXTON APT   34.79N  79.37W
12/07/2011  M49 MPH          SCOTLAND           NC   ASOS

            LAURINBURG ASOS GUSTED TO 49 MPH AT 440 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101480

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
509 PM EST WED DEC 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACKALL ARMY AIRFIELD   35.04N  79.50W
12/07/2011  M58 MPH          RICHMOND           NC   AWOS

            KHFF GUSTED TO 58 MPH AT 450 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101481

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
516 PM EST WED DEC 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     FT BRAGG SIMMONS AAF    35.14N  78.93W
12/07/2011  M51 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            KFBG GUSTED TO 51 MPH AT 510 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101482

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
527 PM EST WED DEC 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPE AFB                35.18N  79.03W
12/07/2011  M53 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            KPOB GUSTED TO 53 MPH AT 518 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101483

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
532 PM EST WED DEC 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL A 34.99N  78.88W
12/07/2011  M48 MPH          CUMBERLAND         NC   ASOS

            KFAY GUSTED TO 48 MPH AT 525 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101484

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
544 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-089-080000-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-
WAYNE-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HENDERSON...WARRENTON...
ROANOKE RAPIDS...LOUISBURG...NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...
SMITHFIELD...WILSON...GOLDSBORO...CLINTON
544 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH 700 PM THIS EVENING...

AT 540 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM HENDERSON...TO
RALEIGH...TO JUST EAST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THOSE WHO LIVE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SHOULD
STAY TUNED AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH 730 PM THIS EVENING.

VINCENT