Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Raleigh, NC

024 
WWUS52 KRAH 192101
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NCC067-081-192145-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-110719T2145Z/
FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR GUILFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
STOKESDALE...OR NEAR BELEWS CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... SEDGE GARDEN...
KERNERSVILLE...SUMMERFIELD...COLFAX...LAKE TOWNSEND...GREENSBORO...
MCLEANSVILLE AND JAMESTOWN.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. 
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. IF YOU 
CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF 
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY 
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3615 8024 3626 8012 3626 8011 3625 7980
      3613 7961 3591 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 325DEG 16KT 3622 8000

$$

VINCENT

772 
WWUS52 KRAH 192112
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NCC067-081-192145-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-110719T2145Z/
FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR GUILFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLFAX...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELEWS CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... LAKE TOWNSEND...
MCLEANSVILLE...JAMESTOWN AND GREENSBORO.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF WINSTON 
SALEM AT 510 PM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WINSTON SALEM THROUGH 530 PM.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. 
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. IF YOU 
CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...IF 
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY 
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3615 8024 3626 8012 3626 8011 3625 7980
      3613 7961 3591 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 323DEG 11KT 3616 7996

$$

VINCENT

375 
WWUS52 KRAH 192121
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
521 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NCC067-081-192128-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-110719T2145Z/
FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
521 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GUILFORD AND NORTHEASTERN
FORSYTH COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
OVER PORTIONS OF GUILFORD...FORSYTH AND DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 
630 PM THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT CAN EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 600 PM 
INCLUDE...WINSTON SALEM AND CLEMMONS IN FORSYTH COUNTY...AND WELCOME 
AND LEXINGTON IN DAVIDSON COUNTY.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3615 8024 3626 8012 3626 8011 3625 7980
      3613 7961 3591 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 323DEG 11KT 3614 7994

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NC PIEDMONT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED THIS
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM REMNANT CONVECTIVE
DISTURBANCES THAT MOVED ACROSS OH AND WV THIS MORNING ARE NOW
SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA...WHICH MAY BEGIN TO STIFLE ANY
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.  MLCAPE VALUES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS RANGE
FROM 1500 J/KG NEAR THE VA BORDER TO 500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE
TRIANGLE.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING UPPER
DISTURBANCE OR ALONG THE THERMALLY ENHANCED SURFACE THROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO ROCKINGHAM.
OVERALL WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND
15K FT OR HIGHER.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE FROM DOWNBURSTS.

LINGERING OUTFLOWS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT ARE
SOMEWHAT EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN WATER VAPOR/RUC FORECASTS WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER
70S.  LOWS WILL ACCORDINGLY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.  SOME FOG
POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS WITH STORMS THIS EVENING..BUT
DONT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH SUCH WARM LOWS.

WEDNESDAY...  LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY OR A FEW METERS HIGHER AROUND 1440M...SUGGESTING ANOTHER DAY
OF HIGHS IN THE 93-97 RANGE.   MOST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING A GOOD
CLUSTERING OF SREF MEMBERS...SHOWS DEWPOINTS REMAINING ABOVE 70 FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.  GIVEN THESE VALUES..HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 103-107 RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.   ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY ON
HOW STRONG THE FORCING WILL BE.  MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE.  SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SO PULSE STORMS WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ARE
MOSTLY LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE
SOUTHEASTWARD.

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR SOME SPOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON STORM COVERAGE...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPING
HEAT WAVE...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY FOR
ALL BUT THE TRIAD AREA AND PERSON COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS LARGELY DRY AND ANOMALOUSLY HOT. WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HOLDING FIRM THROUGH THE PIEDMONT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS SLOWLY FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY AND WESTERN
OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT EASTWARD OVER NC... IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
BUT STILL DOMINANT FORM... THEN BECOMES REFOCUSED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER EMANATING FROM CURRENT MCS
ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND BRING IT SSE
THROUGH NC LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO IS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY... AND TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE... IT IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT THE RIDGE
ITSELF IS STILL CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND THE THERMAL WIND WOULD
INDEED SUGGEST A PATH OF ANY SUCH DISTURBANCES INTO NC. WILL LEAVE A
SMALL CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING... DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS OVERHEAD WITH THE MID-UPPER SHEAR AXIS SETTLING
TO OUR SOUTH... THE ALREADY-MEAGER PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEARLY NIL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH MID LEVELS GROWING
TOO WARM AND DRY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCELERATING UPDRAFTS. A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
HEATING... HOWEVER THE VERY LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MINIMAL
OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MORE
THAN ONE OR TWO LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL ANTICIPATE
HIGHS OF 98-101 THURSDAY AND 99-103 FRIDAY... CERTAINLY APPROACHING
IF NOT MEETING/SURPASSING RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW)... AND
LIKELY NECESSITATING HEAT ADVISORIES IF NOT WARNINGS. HISTORICAL
DATA FROM GSO SHOW LOWS THERE IN THE LOW-MID 70S WHEN 12Z
THICKNESSES WERE IN THE 1430-1440 M RANGE... SO CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MID-UPPER 70S THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK QUITE REASONABLE FOLLOWING MODEL THICKNESS VALUES. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN A SHARP INCREASE IN
HEAT-RELATED HEALTH PROBLEMS WHEN LOW TEMPS DON'T DROP MUCH BELOW
80F AT NIGHT... SO THIS LATE-WEEK TIME FRAME IS LIKELY TO BE THE
MOST CRITICAL FOR US FROM A PUBLIC HEALTH STANDPOINT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY: THE HEAT CONTINUES... AS WE EASE OUT OF WHAT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR (WHICH IS ROUGHLY JULY
18TH THROUGH 22ND). MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF MID
LEVEL HEIGHT MAXIMA WITH SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE
ANTICYCLONE CENTER POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A VERY WEAK SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE BAGGY UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND/OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THESE
UNRESOLVABLE DIFFERENCES... THE MODELS ALL SUPPORT CONTINUED MEAN
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SE COAST TOWARD THE
WNW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID SOUTH AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS DIGS
A NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH LOWERS HEIGHTS OVER NC WITH
AN INCREASING (YET STILL WEAK) NW MID LEVEL FLOW. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF
-- BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN -- IS MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED AND RETAINS ENOUGH RIDGING THROUGH NC TO HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT AT THIS RANGE... THE
OVERALL VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW... AND THE RELUCTANCE TO BE TOO
QUICK TO BREAK DOWN SUCH A STRONG MID LEVEL FEATURE AS THIS RIDGE...
WILL STAY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES
(SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST) OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS
IN THE 90S.

FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY: THE TRANSITION BEGINS TO A NOT-AS-HOT REGIME AS
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGHING INCREASES OVER AND OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST... WITH A STEADY RETROGRESSION OF THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE BACK
TOWARD THE MISS VALLEY AND PLAINS. THE ECMWF USES THIS INCREASING
NWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO VA BY TUESDAY. WITH ASSUMPTIONS OF
IMPROVING DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION TO ASCENT... INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR... AND RISING (YET STILL UNIMPRESSIVE) MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
THE LOW LEVELS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT... WILL TREND UP TO LOW CHANCE
DIURNALLY-FAVORED POPS... WITH TEMPS EASING BACK DOWN INTO THE MORE
SEASONABLE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE ON MONDAY AND AROUND 90 FOR TUESDAY.
-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT AT TERMINALS.

AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 THIS
EVENING...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 21-03Z.  THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS
APPEARS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUR...MOSTLY
LIKELY NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS ONCE
AGAIN.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.  PRE-DAWN MVFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WED THROUGH
SAT...MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI AND/OR WHERE EARLIER STORMS OCCUR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
GSO                                    RDU

DATE     HIGH/YEAR    HIGH MIN/YEAR    HIGH/YEAR  HIGH MIN/YEAR

TUE 19:   98/1977                      99/1986
WED 20:  100/1977       75/1986        100/1977       76/1981
THU 21:   99/1983       74/2010	       102/1952       76/1995
FRI 22:  100/1952       76/2010        103/1952       76/1991
SAT 23:   99/1952       78/2010        105/1952       76/2010
SUN 24:   96/2010       78/2010        100/2010       79/2010

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ008>011-
024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
CLIMATE...WFORAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-201930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 64. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREE. THIS
COMBINED WITH HUMID AIR MASS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
102 TO AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE HOTTEST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-201930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 64. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES COMBINED WITH HUMID AIR MASS
WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102 TO AS HIGH AS 110
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HOTTEST
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
351 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NCZ021-192100-
FORSYTH-
351 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH COUNTY THROUGH 500
PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES
NORTH OF RURAL HALL...OR ABOUT OVER DANBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE RURAL HALL...
WALKERTOWN AND WINSTON-SALEM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8037 3627 8018 3626 8004 3621 8003
      3614 8004 3605 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 333DEG 8KT 3638 8029

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NCZ021-022-038-192200-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT THE TRIAD THROUGH 600 PM...

AT 445 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN STOKES AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE TRIAD DURING RUSH HOUR...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...WINSTON SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT
AND LEXINGTON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ON THE INTERSTATE 85 AND INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN
DAVIDSON...FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
AND SLOW DOWN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

VINCENT