Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA
THROUGH THURSDAY...CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM...

MORNING MODEL RUNS LEFT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO UNCHANGED. NO
INDICATION OF 3000 FOOT WINDS INCREASING AT THIS TIME AS INDICATED
BY VAD WINDS FROM THE WILMINGTON RADAR. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING IS STILL FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN... EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIRTY PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WEST... FIFTY EAST FOR LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL BUT NOT ZERO...
WITH THINLY DISTRIBUTED CAPE PERHAPS NO STRONGER THAN 1300 JOULES.
MODERATE INSTABILITY HOWEVER IN AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED. WEAK SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
AND ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE FROM TRAINING OF ECHOES
OVER URBAN AREAS.

STILL BELIEVE THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH ITS WINDS AND
CONVERGENCE TONIGHT... AND CONVECTION WILL BECOME ISOLATED TO
ABSENT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SMOKE CURRENTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN
SELECT LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR FOG
TONIGHT. WITH A LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT... FOG
NOT FORECAST TO BE DENSE OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE FEW MILES NEAR
ONGOING FIRES.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOWER 70S. EXPECTING ENOUGH
CLOUDS AND RAIN TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...
WITH SOME LOCATIONS PERHAPS FALLING SHORT OF THE MID 80S IN
SHOWERS. IN GENERAL... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MUCH WETTER TREND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE ALONG NC/TN BORDER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE
WARMER AND WETTER AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE
FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. UPSTAIRS
AT 500 MB A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS DOWN THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS
SHOW MOST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. HAPPY WITH EQUAL CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE CWA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE CONSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING FROM AN ALREADY HIGH 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE CWA TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY. FAVORED TIMING FOR RAIN AND
CONVECTION DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
COVERAGE BUT A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WOULD
BE BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS BEYOND BOTH ENDS OF THE SCALE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE TEMPERATURES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. FOR
NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF INVERTED V SIGNATURES THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS IF RAIN RATES BEGIN TO EXCEED
AN INCH PER HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERSHOOT GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES AS OPTIMUM INSOLATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIGHS UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

THE LONG TERM WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD THAT WILL START OUT WET
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MARCH THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AND HEADING OUT TO
SEA. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DRY OUT FIRST...MAYBE AS EARLY AS
LATE SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA REMAINING WET
LONGER INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRIER BUT THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ON MONDAY FROM THE WEST AND REALLY TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NORTH CAROLINA WILL
SAFELY IN BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT OFF SHORE AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY RISING INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY.
MINIMUMS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI IN HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 02Z... BEFORE
DIMINISHING DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING/AIRMASS STABILIZATION.
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL...ROUGHLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
FROM 08Z-13Z AS WELL. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO ABATE BY SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...CBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
828 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE FUQUAY-VARINA      35.63N  78.73W
07/05/2011                   WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON LAKE WHEELER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101006

SEC

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