Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Raleigh, NC

June 27, 2011Edgecombe County, Halifax County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 27, 2011, 3:54 PM EDT for Edgecombe County, Halifax County, North Carolina. It was in force for 53 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2011, 3:54 PM EDT (19:54 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2011, 4:47 PM EDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Edgecombe County, NC, Halifax County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 27, 4:01 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Nnw Kingsboro, NC	MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR KINGSBORO ROAD AND US 64 ALT
Jun 27, 4:27 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 S Scotland Neck, NC	TREE DOWN ON NC 125 NEAR SCOTLAND NECK.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 27, 1:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2020 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 685 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

009 
WUUS52 KRAH 271954
SVRRAH
NCC065-083-272100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0193.110627T1954Z-110627T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EDGECOMBE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ENFIELD TO 7 MILES
  SOUTH OF ROCKY MOUNT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH
  OF HALIFAX TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
  QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
  THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TILLERY...KINGSBORO...
  LEGGETT...
  TARBORO...
  SCOTLAND NECK...
  PRINCEVILLE...
  HOBGOOD...SPEED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A VEHICLE OR A NEARBY
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA AND COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7724 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734
      3582 7736 3582 7741 3577 7751 3587 7783
      3602 7776 3611 7770 3616 7770 3633 7746
      3632 7743 3624 7737 3621 7738 3616 7727
      3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 292DEG 12KT 3620 7760 3585 7780

$$

ELLIS

4 follow-up statements

893 
WWUS52 KRAH 272014
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
414 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCC065-083-272100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-110627T2100Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-
414 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 411 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TILLERY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KINGSBORO...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... LEGGETT...TARBORO...
SCOTLAND NECK...PRINCEVILLE...SPEED...HOBGOOD AND CONETOE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3609 7724 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734
      3582 7736 3582 7741 3577 7751 3587 7783
      3602 7776 3611 7770 3616 7770 3633 7746
      3632 7743 3624 7737 3621 7738 3616 7727
      3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 292DEG 12KT 3617 7752 3582 7772

$$

ELLIS

429 
WWUS52 KRAH 272023
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
423 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCC065-083-272100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-110627T2100Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-
423 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SCOTLAND NECK TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF KINGSBORO...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TARBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... TARBORO...
PRINCEVILLE...SPEED...HOBGOOD AND CONETOE.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3616 7727 3611 7722 3609 7724 3608 7731
      3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7736 3582 7741
      3577 7751 3587 7775 3602 7771 3610 7765
      3614 7770 3616 7770 3633 7746 3632 7743
      3624 7737 3621 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 292DEG 12KT 3616 7749 3581 7769

$$

ELLIS

305 
WWUS52 KRAH 272035
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
435 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCC065-083-272100-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-110627T2100Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-
435 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX AND EASTERN EDGECOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 432 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCOTLAND NECK TO
CONETOE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF RICH SQUARE
TO TARBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3616 7727 3611 7722 3609 7724 3608 7731
      3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7736 3582 7741
      3577 7751 3592 7755 3603 7756 3611 7752
      3614 7758 3621 7764 3633 7746 3632 7743
      3624 7737 3621 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 269DEG 26KT 3618 7729 3583 7750

$$

ELLIS

312 
WWUS52 KRAH 272047
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
447 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCC065-083-272057-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-110627T2100Z/
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-
447 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX AND 
EASTERN EDGECOMBE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3616 7727 3611 7722 3609 7724 3608 7731
      3600 7740 3591 7734 3582 7736 3582 7741
      3577 7751 3592 7755 3603 7756 3611 7752
      3614 7758 3621 7764 3633 7746 3632 7743
      3624 7737 3621 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 269DEG 26KT 3618 7718 3583 7739

$$

ELLIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 27, 3:11 PM EDT, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 3:11 PM EDT, 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MESO ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MESO ANALYSIS ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH
ALIGNED SW-NE IMMEDIATELY NW OF OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
INTENSE INSOLATION AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL INITIATE/SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LIES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...STORMS MAY ACTUALLY INITIATE OVER
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THEN
MIGRATE SWD TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY.

WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...STRONG UPDRAFTS
MAY RESULT IN PRECIP LOADING ALOFT...LEADING TO DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.

TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. -WSS

AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTION TO MIDNIGHT
OR BEYOND. DEVELOPMENT OF A NIGHT TIME NEAR SURFACE INVERSION AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH COVERAGE. THIRTY PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES EAST AND SLIGHT WEST AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THEN SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE... CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES NO LOWER THAN THE LOW TO MID 70S... WITH SOME RAIN
AND DOWNDRAFT COOLED SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY... AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT BY
SUNSET. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AID
CONVECTION... WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS TWO INCHES
AND CAPE OF 2000 TO 2500. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST
THE HIGHER THREAT NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING... WITH THE SAME DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AS
MONDAY (TODAY)... THOUGH PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY MOST LOCATIONS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 90S... WITH LOWER 90S NORTHWEST.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING SOME
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE ATMOSPHERE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES. CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS IN THE
SPC GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND WHILE BULK SHEAR RANGES
AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...THE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELD AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR
LINEARLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME FORM
OF LINE SEGMENT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE THREAT
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. ONE. SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE LAGGING UPPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE 30 TO 40 POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE
68 TO 73 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...PRECIP WILL
BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES A COOLER (RELATIVE TO
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING) NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
COLUMN DRYING OUT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PERSISTS BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...OUR FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PRECIP CHANCES ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON ANY
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACCURATELY PREDICT THIS FAR OUT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION BEING POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGH THAN SLIGHT CHANCE SINCE THIS
IS DAY 7/8 TIME FRAME.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM...

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION OR
DIMINISHED. IN ITS WAKE...SKY CONDITIONS VARIED FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY. PER OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY...POCKETS OF
LOW STRATUS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHILE PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN.

CONVECTION SHOULD RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
WELL PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR WILL REDUCE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 1:48 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ038-039-073-074-083-281000-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
148 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT
IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

NCZ021>023-281000-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
148 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT
IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

NCZ010-011-026>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-281000-
WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-
MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
148 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT
IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

NCZ007>009-024-025-281000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
148 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS
SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:30 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S WENDELL             35.72N  78.36W
06/27/2011                   JOHNSTON           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WENDELL ROAD AND
            SALEM CHURCH ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100919

KRR

Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:33 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE LAKE WHEELER      35.73N  78.70W
06/27/2011                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR MID PINES ROAD... TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100920

SEC

Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:34 PM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
334 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE LAKE WHEELER       35.72N  78.69W
06/27/2011                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON LAKE WHEELER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100921

SEC

Special weather statement, Jun 27, 3:44 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
344 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ011-028-272045-
EDGECOMBE-HALIFAX-
344 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 343 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF SCOTLAND NECK...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HALIFAX...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN EDGECOMBE COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SCOTLAND NECK.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS VERY
QUICKLY IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7724 3608 7731 3600 7740 3591 7734
      3582 7736 3582 7741 3578 7750 3590 7781
      3615 7769 3632 7748 3633 7744 3627 7741
      3624 7737 3621 7738 3616 7727 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 267DEG 17KT 3615 7747

DJF

Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:49 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
349 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSW CLINTON           34.93N  78.37W
06/27/2011                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE ACROSS ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF BOYKIN BRIDGE
            ROAD AND PETERSON ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100922

KRR

Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:52 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
352 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW WILSON             35.76N  77.95W
06/27/2011                   WILSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100923

SEC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 26, 9:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson, Richmond, Scotland	54 min
Jun 26, 11:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Cumberland, Hoke	66 min
Jun 26, 11:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Cumberland, Hoke	89 min
Jun 27, 1:03 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Sampson	87 min
Jun 27, 2:48 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Sampson	87 min
Jun 27, 1:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Wake	50 min
Jun 27, 1:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Harnett, Lee, Wake	48 min
Jun 27, 1:45 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Wake	3 hr
Jun 27, 1:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance	64 min
Jun 27, 2:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	61 min
Jun 27, 2:23 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Wake	99 min
Jun 27, 2:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Bladen	45 min
Jun 27, 2:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Harnett, Lee	42 min
Jun 27, 2:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Nash	56 min
Jun 27, 2:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Wake	29 min
Jun 27, 2:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Sampson	24 min
Jun 27, 2:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Nash, Wilson	56 min
Jun 27, 3:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Halifax	66 min
Jun 27, 3:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Durham, Johnston, Orange, Wake	55 min
Jun 27, 3:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Sampson	63 min
Jun 27, 3:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Nash, Wayne, Wilson	63 min
Jun 27, 3:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Halifax, Nash	37 min
Jun 27, 3:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Edgecombe	61 min
Jun 27, 3:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Sampson	38 min
Jun 27, 4:31 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Sampson	119 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.