Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Raleigh, NC

207 
WWUS52 KRAH 220231
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC085-220240-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
HARNETT NC-
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HARNETT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3488 7893 3495 7903 3520 7907 3522 7889
      3526 7879 3524 7861 3520 7865 3514 7863
      3509 7867 3499 7865 3491 7854 3486 7850
      3484 7885 3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 256DEG 15KT 3518 7898 3501 7889
          3488 7891

$$

NCC051-220315-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
1031 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPRING LAKE TO HOPE MILLS TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF HOPE MILLS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FORT BRAGG TO
FAYETTEVILLE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... FAYETTEVILLE...
VANDER...EASTOVER...CEDAR CREEK...STEDMAN...WADE...LINDEN AND GODWIN.

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES ENTER THE HOME THROUGH UTILITIES. AVOID USING
ANY DEVICES PLUGGED INTO A WALL INCLUDING CORDED PHONES...COMPUTERS
AND APPLIANCES. ALSO AVOID COMING IN CONTACT WITH RUNNING WATER FROM
SINKS...SHOWERS AND TUBS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3488 7893 3495 7903 3520 7907 3522 7889
      3526 7879 3524 7861 3520 7865 3514 7863
      3509 7867 3499 7865 3491 7854 3486 7850
      3484 7885 3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 256DEG 15KT 3518 7898 3501 7889
          3488 7891

$$

77

778 
WWUS52 KRAH 220250
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC051-220315-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
1050 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 1048 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VANDER TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF HOPE MILLS...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF FAYETTEVILLE TO 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF 
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH WAS 
MEASURED AT THE FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT AT 1042 PM EDT.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... WADE...LINDEN...
GODWIN...STEDMAN...CEDAR CREEK AND FALCON.

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3489 7893 3495 7903 3520 7907 3522 7889
      3526 7879 3524 7862 3520 7865 3514 7863
      3509 7867 3499 7865 3491 7854 3490 7854
      3486 7850 3484 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 256DEG 15KT 3505 7874 3499 7880
          3489 7891

$$

WSS

219 
WWUS52 KRAH 220308
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1108 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC051-220315-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
1108 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 1106 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STEDMAN TO CEDAR CREEK...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES EAST OF FAYETTEVILLE TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR STEDMAN AND 
CEDAR CREEK AS WELL AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT. 
A WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OCCURRED AT THE FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT AT 1042 
PM EDT. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES IN THE 
COUNTY.

IF YOU OBSERVED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3489 7893 3495 7892 3503 7883 3510 7872
      3509 7867 3499 7865 3491 7856 3491 7854
      3490 7854 3486 7850 3484 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 256DEG 15KT 3507 7866 3501 7872
          3491 7883

$$

WSS

690 
WWUS52 KRAH 220316
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1116 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC051-220326-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-110622T0315Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
1116 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 1115 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3489 7893 3495 7892 3503 7883 3510 7872
      3509 7867 3499 7865 3491 7856 3491 7854
      3490 7854 3486 7850 3484 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 256DEG 15KT 3507 7865 3501 7871
          3491 7882

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING HOT CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

COMPLEX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
AND CONTINUED DIFFICULTY WITH THE FORECAST OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AND EVOLUTION.

FIRST A WILDFIRE IN PENDER COUNTY THAT STARTED ON FRIDAY FROM A
LIGHTNING STRIKE ERUPTED ON MONDAY AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SMOKE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND TRIAD AREA. THE SMOKE ARRIVED
WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW OVERNIGHT AND A LOW MIXED LAYER. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 2 MILES AT KRDU AND AROUND 4 MILES AT AROUND A
HALF DOZEN OTHER METAR LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS
EVENING AND WILL TEND TO VEER AROUND TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
LIGHT SPEEDS WONT PROVIDE RAPID ALLEVIATION OF THE SMOKE AND LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES...
CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN LOCALLY. OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION THIS
EVENING COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE SMOKE BUT PINPOINTING THE
LOCATION AND IMPACT OF THIS IS FOOLHARDY.

CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL RECEIVED. THIS CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WILL TEND TO
DRIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH THE LIGHT W TO SW FLOW AT
MID LEVEL. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
GOOD INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WITH A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BECAUSE OF REDUCED
INSOLATION FROM CLOUDINESS AND SMOKE. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE
EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
IS GENERALLY LIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST 4KM WHICH BUT THE
ASSOCIATED COOL POOL SHOULD SUPPORT AND DRIVE THE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WIND THREAT TO BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS EVENING GIVEN THE FORECAST PROFILES OVER
CENTRAL NC BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE REPORTS THIS AFTN HAVE BE FROM
LARGE HAIL. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE MID CHANCE RANGE ACROSS THE
NW PIEDMONT...HIGHLIGHT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN NEAR THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR
THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100. AFTN DEW POINTS ON WEDNESDAY RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70. HOURLY APPARENT TEMP GRIDS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAT INDEX WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED HEAT INDECIES WITH THE
HWO. EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF AFTN CONVECTION ON WED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND PUSHING EAST
DURING THE EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NW PIEDMONT. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE IA/NE BORDER
WILL BE LOCATED IN WISCONSIN BY 00Z THU...MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 12Z THU...WITH H5 TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THE H5 RIDGE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12Z THU...WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TN VALLEY (ASSOC/W THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW) WILL APPROACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NC LATE WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST/NW OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z THU. EXPECT ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN ASSOC/W ANY DISTURBANCES IN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...PRIMARILY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH...THE PRECIP
FORECAST WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS. WILL KEEP A 30% CHANCE IN THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WHERE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) ELSEWHERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
LOWER POPS TO 20% EVERYWHERE. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
EXPECT BALMY LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THURSDAY:
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THU...WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC/NC. GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
DIFFER GREATLY ON THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON
THU...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVELS WITH A ~1.00"
PWAT...AND THE NAM SHOWING A MOIST PROFILE WITH PWAT VALUES ~1.85".
ADDITIONALLY...MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A ~10F RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS...
WITH THE MAV INDICATING 95F AT RDU AND THE MET 85F. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/NAM SHOW A SIMILAR HEIGHT/MSLP PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC...THE
AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BE A
RESULT OF SHORTWAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...OR RATHER THE DPVA
AHEAD OF/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SAID DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...GFS
H85 TEMPS ARE ~3F WARMER OVER CENTRAL NC THAN THE NAM THU
AFTERNOON...WITH SIMILAR H85 WIND SPEED/DIRECTIONS ON BOTH MODELS.
THIS TREND IS NOT JUST LIMITED TO THE CAROLINAS...BUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS WELL...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH CHANCES/COVERAGE MOST LIKELY DEPENDING ON THE
PRESENCE/TIMING OF DISTURBANCES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...ALTHOUGH IF
GFS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE  ON THE RIGHT TRACK WE WOULD LIKELY
BE TOO DRY/CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO H85 TEMPS...WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...OR
89-94F.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THU NIGHT...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED ENTIRELY TO ANY
DISTURBANCES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
LINGERING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE A TOKEN 20%
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

...PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT N/NE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON FRI...WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TN
VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MORE
FOCUSED SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST FRI
EVE/NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRI/FRI
NIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WILL FCST 30-40% AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI NIGHT.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A STRENGTHENING H5
RIDGE OVER TX/MEXICO...A PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OFFSHORE...AND WEAK H5
TROUGHING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE TN VALLEY...DEEP SOUTH AND CAROLINAS.
GIVEN SEASONAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER AND JUST UPSTREAM OF CENTRAL NC...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30% AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. EXPECT
HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...

COMPLEX FORECAST SITUATION THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SMOKE AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION.

SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN NC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL NC...ADVERSELY AFFECTING VSBYS AND CIGS...MAINLY AT
KRDU/KRWI. EXPECT VSBYS AND CIGS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE COLLAPSE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT RESULTS IN
CONTINUED VSBYS AND CIGS RESTRICTIONS (OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION COULD
POTENTIAL DISPERSE SOME OF THE SOME ISSUE THOUGH). POOREST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KRDU THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHIFTING EAST TOWARD KRWI. THINK WE MAY SEE A SOME IFR OR LIFR
VISBYS FROM THE SMOKE COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT KRWI
AROUND SUNRISE.

IN ADDITION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE... PIEDMONT TROUGH... AND HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME STORMS MY AFFECT KGSO/KINT
ALONG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AT KFAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR
TWO AT KRDU AND KRWI AS WELL... GENERATED OFF OF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
NEAR KFAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL... ALONG
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF SMOKE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS
AND CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. -BLAES

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JUNE 21-23:

RDU

DATE        |   MAX T    YEAR  | HIGH MIN  YEAR
------------------------------------------------
TUE JUN 21  |    99      1964  |   72    2009/1990
WED JUN 22  |   100      1981  |   77      1981
THU JUN 23  |   100      1986  |   73    2010/1996

GSO

DATE        |   MAX T   YEAR   | HIGH MIN  YEAR
------------------------------------------------
TUE JUN 21  |   100     1933   |   73    2009/1990
WED JUN 22  |    99     1933   |   75      1981
THU JUN 23  |    97     1988   |   73      2010

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BSD/BLAES
CLIMATE...KC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCZ024-025-040>042-076>078-088-089-221800-
ORANGE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
157 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE IN PENDER COUNTY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMOKE WILL BE THICK AT TIMES. THE SMOKE WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND IMPACT THOSE SENSITIVE TO AIR QUALITY
ISSUES.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083>086-221800-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
157 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES FOR A SHORT
TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007>011-026>028-043-221800-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
157 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE IN PENDER COUNTY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES AND COULD IMPACT THOSE SENSITIVE TO AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             ABERDEEN                35.14N  79.42W
06/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            OFF DUTY POLICE OFFICER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN
            DOWNTOWN ABERDEEN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100847

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCZ007-008-220215-
GRANVILLE-PERSON-
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS PERSON
AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 914 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A GUST FRONT CROSSING PERSON
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS GUST FRONT WAS OUT AHEAD OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO PERSON COUNTY BY 930 PM.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE GUSTY WINDS INCLUDE...BETHEL
HILL...TIMBERLAKE...OAK HILL...KERR LAKE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. BOATERS
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A
NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 7851 3625 7852 3627 7910 3654 7904
      3655 7901 3654 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 248DEG 18KT 3641 7900

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             SPRING LAKE             35.18N  78.98W
06/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SPRING LAKE AT 910
            PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100848

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCZ073-074-220300-
MONTGOMERY-STANLY-
957 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

AT 956 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORWOOD...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBEMARLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TROY... NORWOOD... AND
MOUNT GILEAD.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 7989 3524 7977 3515 8008 3517 8011
      3519 8011 3519 8013 3518 8012 3517 8013
      3518 8014 3529 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 237DEG 15KT 3527 8008

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW FAYETTEVILLE      35.08N  78.92W
06/21/2011                   CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT 1818 MCGOUGAN ROAD IN
            FAYETTEVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100849

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             2 SSE SEVEN LAKES       35.24N  79.57W
06/21/2011  M1.00 INCH       MOORE              NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WEST END.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100850

ELLIS