Winter Weather Advisory 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MST SAT JAN 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CO ATTM WILL TRANSLATED
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISTRICT TONIGHT.  AREA RADARS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION JUST YET...AND MODELS AREN/T TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  BEST UPPER
FORCING MOVES THROUGH DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THE SCT/LOW END LIKELY POPS ALONG THE CONTDVD OVERNIGHT
WITH BEST WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL DURING THE EVENING.  GENERALLY LOOKING
AT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND
MOSQUITO RANGES.  POPS ARE A BIGGER CHALLENGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  EVERY OTHER RUN APPEARS TO WAVER BETWEEN A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 18Z NAM
HAS BACKED OFF AGAIN ON THIS...HOWEVER GFS MAINTAINS SOME LOW END
QPF VALUES.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND IF ENOUGH SATURATION OCCURS WITHIN THIS LAYER...THEN THE
GFS COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING.  THUS...WILL KEEP A SHORT WINDOW OF
ISOLATED POPS FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION THIS EVENING...SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DONT LOOK SATURATED DEEPLY ENOUGH IN THE LOW LVLS TO
WARRANT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES...AND ONCE THE TROF MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHOULD GAIN A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD DECREASE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION...ESP KCOS AND KPUB.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHTS...THOUGH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MINS ON THE WARMER SIDE ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES.

FORECAST AREA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD KEEP SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING LONG
THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE DAY.  SURFACE LEE TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT.  H7 TEMPS WARM BACK TO AROUND
0 TO +1C ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS BY SUN
AFTN...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SPREADING DOWN ACROSS THE
ADJACENT LOWER SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS THE RAMPART
RANGE REGION...AND DOWN AROUND WALSENBURG.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  ALONG THE SFC TROF
AXIS...LIGHT WINDS MAY NOT YIELD QUITE AS MUCH WARMING. GRIDS IN
FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.  -KT

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ZONES 58/59 AND 60 FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 12Z TUESDAY...

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS(ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES.

OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND MILD
METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE CWFA DURING THE LONGER
TERM.

LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 58/59 AND 60 FROM 00Z MONDAY THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA...GENERALLY LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES.  NEARER TO THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COOL SURGE SHOULD BE
NOTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY HELPING TO COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE MID TO LATE JANUARY CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.  FINALLY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE
BRIEF VFR CIGS BKN060 WITH VCSH NEAR KCOS IN THE 02Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER GIVEN LIKELIHOOD IS VERY LOW...DO NOT PLAN TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AS SNOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG/LIFR CIGS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 09Z NEAR THE
CO/KS BORDER...THOUGH AT THIS POINT CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS TO OCCUR EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058>060.

&&

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